Frost Advisory 13, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Alexander County, NC, Buncombe County, NC, Burke County, NC, Caldwell County, NC, Catawba County, NC, Cleveland County, NC, Davie County, NC, Graham County, NC, Haywood County, NC, Henderson County, NC, Iredell County, NC, Jackson County, NC, Lincoln County, NC, Macon County, NC, Madison County, NC, McDowell County, NC, Mitchell County, NC, Polk County, NC, Rowan County, NC, Rutherford County, NC, Swain County, NC, Transylvania County, NC, Yancey County, NC

659 
WWUS72 KGSP 172331
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
731 PM EDT Sat Oct 17 2020

NCZ035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068-069-501>510-181000-
/O.CON.KGSP.FR.Y.0013.201018T0600Z-201018T1300Z/
Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-
Buncombe-Catawba-Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-
Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
Including the cities of Bethlehem, Ellendale, Millersville, 
Taylorsville, Hiddenite, Stony Point, Statesville, Mooresville, 
Farmington, Fork Church, Mocksville, Advance, Faust, Mars Hill, 
Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck, Swiss, 
Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, 
Poplar, Alarka, Almond, Bryson City, Luada, Wesser, Waynesville, 
Waterville, Canton, Cruso, Cove Creek, Asheville, Hickory, 
Newton, St. Stephens, Salisbury, Robbinsville, Stecoah, 
Cullowhee, Tuckasegee, Sylva, Franklin, Rainbow Springs, Kyle, 
Highlands, Wolf Mountain, Cashiers, Brevard, Cedar Mountain, 
Little River, Hendersonville, Fletcher, Dana, East Flat Rock, 
Tuxedo, Etowah, Shelby, Kings Mountain, Lincolnton, Crouse, 
Patterson, Kings Creek, Lenoir, Sawmills, Granite Falls, 
Jonas Ridge, Morganton, Pleasant Grove, Valdese, Ashford, 
Sugar Hill, Woodlawn, Old Fort, Marion, Nebo, Dysartsville, Fero,
Glenwood, Chimney Rock State Park, Forest City, Rutherfordton, 
Spindale, Saluda, Tryon, Columbus, and Mill Spring
731 PM EDT Sat Oct 17 2020

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Temperatures as low as 34 across the mountains and 36
  across the Piedmont will result in the formation of areas of
  frost. 

* WHERE...The mountains, foothills and northwest Piedmont of
  western North Carolina.

* WHEN...From 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if 
  left uncovered.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Finalize steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

&&

$$

HG

289 
WWUS72 KGSP 180904
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
504 AM EDT Sun Oct 18 2020

NCZ035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068-069-501>510-181300-
/O.CON.KGSP.FR.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-201018T1300Z/
Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-
Buncombe-Catawba-Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-
Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
Including the cities of Bethlehem, Ellendale, Millersville, 
Taylorsville, Hiddenite, Stony Point, Statesville, Mooresville, 
Farmington, Fork Church, Mocksville, Advance, Faust, Mars Hill, 
Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck, Swiss, 
Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, 
Poplar, Alarka, Almond, Bryson City, Luada, Wesser, Waynesville, 
Waterville, Canton, Cruso, Cove Creek, Asheville, Hickory, 
Newton, St. Stephens, Salisbury, Robbinsville, Stecoah, 
Cullowhee, Tuckasegee, Sylva, Franklin, Rainbow Springs, Kyle, 
Highlands, Wolf Mountain, Cashiers, Brevard, Cedar Mountain, 
Little River, Hendersonville, Fletcher, Dana, East Flat Rock, 
Tuxedo, Etowah, Shelby, Kings Mountain, Lincolnton, Crouse, 
Patterson, Kings Creek, Lenoir, Sawmills, Granite Falls, 
Jonas Ridge, Morganton, Pleasant Grove, Valdese, Ashford, 
Sugar Hill, Woodlawn, Old Fort, Marion, Nebo, Dysartsville, Fero,
Glenwood, Chimney Rock State Park, Forest City, Rutherfordton, 
Spindale, Saluda, Tryon, Columbus, and Mill Spring
504 AM EDT Sun Oct 18 2020

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Temperatures as low as 33 will result in frost 
  formation.

* WHERE...Portions of piedmont and western North Carolina.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM EDT this morning.

* IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if 
  left uncovered.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Some sheltered locations could drop down
  below freezing for a brief period around sunrise.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

&&

$$
Lane

504 
WWUS72 KGSP 181300
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
900 AM EDT Sun Oct 18 2020

NCZ035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068-069-501>510-181400-
/O.EXP.KGSP.FR.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-201018T1300Z/
Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-
Buncombe-Catawba-Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-
Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
Including the cities of Bethlehem, Ellendale, Millersville, 
Taylorsville, Hiddenite, Stony Point, Statesville, Mooresville, 
Farmington, Fork Church, Mocksville, Advance, Faust, Mars Hill, 
Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck, Swiss, 
Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, 
Poplar, Alarka, Almond, Bryson City, Luada, Wesser, Waynesville, 
Waterville, Canton, Cruso, Cove Creek, Asheville, Hickory, 
Newton, St. Stephens, Salisbury, Robbinsville, Stecoah, 
Cullowhee, Tuckasegee, Sylva, Franklin, Rainbow Springs, Kyle, 
Highlands, Wolf Mountain, Cashiers, Brevard, Cedar Mountain, 
Little River, Hendersonville, Fletcher, Dana, East Flat Rock, 
Tuxedo, Etowah, Shelby, Kings Mountain, Lincolnton, Crouse, 
Patterson, Kings Creek, Lenoir, Sawmills, Granite Falls, 
Jonas Ridge, Morganton, Pleasant Grove, Valdese, Ashford, 
Sugar Hill, Woodlawn, Old Fort, Marion, Nebo, Dysartsville, Fero,
Glenwood, Chimney Rock State Park, Forest City, Rutherfordton, 
Spindale, Saluda, Tryon, Columbus, and Mill Spring
900 AM EDT Sun Oct 18 2020

...FROST ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

Conditions are improving this morning as temperatures continue to
rise above freezing. Thus the frost advisory will be allowed to 
expire.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
127 PM EDT Sat Oct 17 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and dry high pressure will give our region one more very
cool night tonight with frost concerns in North Carolina then this
high pressure moves off the mid Atlantic coast.  The high will bring
a general southerly wind flow over our area early in the week with
temperatures warming to a little above normal. A strong cold front
will approach our region at the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 125 PM: Main update for the 18Z TAF issuance along with minor
adjustments made to temps/dewpoints to coincide with latest trends
as the rest of the near term forecast remains on track. Otherwise,
it's quite the beautiful fall day across the western Carolinas and
northeast Georgia with plenty of sunshine, a light northeasterly
breeze, and current temps in the upper 50s to lower 60s

Previous discussion: Cool/dry surface ridge will slide from the TN
Valley this morning to the lee of the southern Appalachians by the
end of the period, resulting in classic fall weather across the
region through the near term. Despite abundant sunshine, max temps
today will be around 10 degrees below climo in most locations.
Another good radiational cooling event is in the offing tonight,
although increasing thickness values and return southerly flow at
ridgetop level will limit the potential for freezing temps in the
mountains tonight. Nevertheless, another round of greater-than-
patchy frost is likely there tonight, but will need to analyze how
this morning's event unfolds before making any Frost Advisory
decisions for tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As 330 AM EDT Saturday: A chilly start to short term will be in
store for much of the cwa Sunday morning. Areas of frost will most
likely occur in the mountains and points east, mainly along the I-40
corridor Sunday morning, while sfc high continues to set up shop
over a good portion of the Eastern Seaboard. Temperatures will begin
to moderate Sunday afternoon due to winds veering into a 850 mb waa
flow regime. Mostly sunny skies will be in store for Sunday with
temperatures starting to rebound in comparison to Saturday, but
remaining just below-climo for a high. The overall pattern includes
a broad upper trough across the the northern half of the CONUS,
while a ridge begins to form off the Southeast coast late Saturday
into Sunday. During the second half of the period, the ridge is
expected to deepen which causes the broad cyclonic flow aloft to
retreat farther northward during the early part of next week. Thus,
higher heights and persistent waa will continue to push into the cwa
and allows temperatures to jump another 5-7 degrees from Sunday to
Monday. Max temperatures should uptick to above-climo to start the
new work week, while min temperatures rise above-climo as well
starting Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Saturday: By the medium range, the ridge takes full
control of the overall weather pattern for the cwa. Dry conditions
and unseasonably warm temperatures should prevail during the middle
part of next week as the axis of the ridge deepens along the
Carolina coastline. The ridge begins to weaken and retreat offshore
by the latter half of next week as a shortwave trough moves through
the Great Plains and Upper Great Lakes region with an attendant cold
front. Heights will begin to drop off late Thursday into early
Friday as the frontal boundary approaches the cwa. A full frontal
passage isn't shown per model guidance by the end of the period, but
sparks some activity ahead of the front Friday afternoon and onward
through Day 7. Consensus between the global models on the timing of
the front's arrival gives better confidence in the forecast to show
an uptick in PoPs by the end of next week. Where the GFS and ECMWF
diverge is how much activity that's caused by the frontal boundary.
The ECMWF is a lot more active due to the frontal boundary
interaction with a weak topical disturbance in the eastern Gulf,
which eventually absorbs the tropical moisture by the time
everything reaches the Southeast. The GFS doesn't produce any kind
of tropical disturbance in the eastern Gulf during that same time
period and thus, putting a limit on any activity development ahead
and along the frontal boundary. Expect temperatures to be way above-
climo through much of the extended, while PoPs stay mostly out of
the picture until the latter half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Expect VFR to prevail at the TAF sites
through the valid TAF period with sfc high pressure dominating the
weather pattern. Though will note that patchy fog will be possible
across some of the mountain valleys and lakes overnight into early
Sunday and near lakes, though do not anticipate any flight
restrictions at TAF sites. ENE winds AOB 5 kts will continue into
Sunday, SE at KAVL.

Outlook: Expect VFR into next week ahead of the next approaching
front, though the potential for early morning fog/stratus
restrictions in the mtn valleys should gradually increase each day.

Confidence Table...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CAC
NEAR TERM...JDL/SGL
SHORT TERM...CAC
LONG TERM...CAC
AVIATION...SGL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1233 PM EDT Sat Oct 17 2020

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-181645-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
1233 PM EDT Sat Oct 17 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Canadian high pressure building into the area this weekend may
support frost and high elevation freeze conditions through the
early morning hours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-501>510-181645-
Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-
Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-
Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
1233 PM EDT Sat Oct 17 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina and
western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Light frost development is possible during the pre-dawn hours on
Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ082-SCZ001>014-019-181645-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Union NC-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-
Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
1233 PM EDT Sat Oct 17 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

SGL