Freeze Warning 7, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Habersham County, GA, Rabun County, GA, Alexander County, NC, Avery County, NC, Buncombe County, NC, Burke County, NC, Caldwell County, NC, Catawba County, NC, Cleveland County, NC, Davie County, NC, Gaston County, NC, Graham County, NC, Haywood County, NC, Henderson County, NC, Iredell County, NC, Jackson County, NC, Lincoln County, NC, Macon County, NC, Madison County, NC, McDowell County, NC, Mitchell County, NC, Polk County, NC, Rowan County, NC, Rutherford County, NC, Swain County, NC, Transylvania County, NC, Yancey County, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
338 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Light rain and drizzle will continue over much of the area this
morning ahead of an approaching cold front. The front will cross
the region later today, bringing gusty winds and the coldest air
of the season in its wake. Dry high pressure will then settle
over the region and linger through midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 315 AM EST: Strong sfc high pressure has migrated off the
northeast Atlantic coast, but continues to wedge into the CWA. A
positively tilted upper trough is entering from the west; water
vapor imagery suggests its axis is centered over srn IL/MO. Abundant
low-level isentropic lift occurring over the area will maintain
abundant low clouds and widespread light precip over most of the
area this morning under the enhancement provided by DPVA. 850mb
southerly wind component briefly will exceed 2 SD above climo this
morning, but it will be a fairly quick shot due to the rapid motion
of the shortwave. The associated cold front will blow through the
area late morning to early afternoon, scouring out the wedge and
ending precip east of the Appalachian spine. Max temps will end
up close to normal across the mid to lower elevations, thanks
to downsloping.

The front will initiate anomalously strong cold-advective
winds across the area, again peaking above 2 SD this aftn
and evening. Deep mixing within the sharply colder airmass has
particular potential for strong wind gusts in the NC mountains. We
had considered upgrading the Watch for the northern mtns to
a Warning, but after further analysis and collaboration with
WFO Blacksburg, it looks more like a high-end Advisory event,
with warning criteria likely only being met on the more exposed,
highest peaks. The resultant Wind Advisory is in effect from 20z
this afternoon until 18z Mon; we did see fit to include all of
our western NC zones above the Escarpment.

Substantially colder air will begin to filter in by late afternoon
in the high terrain. We are confident this will be the coldest
air of the season yet; throughout the NC mountains this should
result in a freeze. This is the first freeze event that is likely
to bring the zone averages below 32 up there; normally we would end
our frost-freeze program on November 1 per climatology, but due to
the lateness of this event in the season, and the fact we only will
be one day past the cutoff, we are issuing a Freeze Warning for the
NC mountains. The median and mean guidance values depict areas of
31-32 across the NC Foothills/Piedmont zones except for a portion of
the Charlotte metro.  Those zones are still 10-14 days from their
average first freeze; given lesser confidence on the freeze and in
coordination with WFO Raleigh, we are issuing a Freeze Watch there.

Lastly, the brisk NW winds point to a small chance of upslope
precip along the TN border this aftn thru early Mon morning. Temp
profiles become favorable for some of that precip to change to snow
as temps plummet, and the NAMNest and GFS even depict a little CAPE
developing. A mention of isolated snow showers has been added to
the highest elevations. Accumulation appears unlikely to exceed a
half inch, particularly given that the snow may blow away before
having a chance to pile up.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 310 AM EST Sunday: the short-term fcst picks up at 12z on
Monday with broad and deep upper trofing moving over the fcst area
as steep upper ridging builds over the Western CONUS. The trof
axis is expected to be drifting off the Atlantic Coast by late
Monday with heights beginning to recover in its wake. For the
remainder of the period, heights will gradually increase as the
upper trof lifts farther NE and upper ridging spreads farther
eastward. At the sfc, another strong, reinforcing high will be
spreading over the Southeast by early Monday bringing gusty winds
and the coldest air we've seen since last winter. High pressure
will remain in place over the region for the rest of the period
and into the extended. As for the sensible fcst, the period should
be dry with widespread freezing temperatures expected across the
higher terrain early Monday and early Tuesday, and low to mid 30s
outside the mtns. Winds will remain gusty over the mtns into Monday
afternoon, and weaken as the day wears on.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 255 AM EST Sunday: the extended forecast picks up at 12z on
Wednesday with broad upper ridging building across the Southeast
and an embedded upper shortwave moving over the Southern Rockies
and into the Plains. Over the next few days, the long-range guidance
remains fairly inconsistent wrt the evolution of the shortwave
trof. Most of the guidance has it approaching our area by late
Thurs/early Fri, but after that, its fate remains less clear.
We can expect the upper ridge to amplify on Friday and into the
weekend as deep upper trofing digs down over the far Western CONUS.
At the sfc, broad high pressure will be shifting NE and off the
Atlantic Coast by early Wednesday. The guidance continues to show
at least some degree of weak high pressure remaining over the fcst
area thru the rest of the extended period, although there is a
gradual increase in shallow moisture off the Atlantic from Thursday
onward. Overall, the dry air mass will provide mostly clear skies
into Thursday with cloud cover increasing for the end of the week
as Atlantic moisture increases across the area. High temperatures
will start out near climatology on Wed and gradually warm above
climo thru the period.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Robust upglide atop sfc high pressure wedge
and DPVA downstream of shortwave trough will result in a round
of light precip this morning. -DZ will be widespread, perhaps
having little to no impact initially, but occasional -SHRA may
be associated with MVFR vsby. The pattern gives reasonably good
confidence that IFR will develop after onset of precip. Once IFR
develops it should prevail until better lift is carried east of the
area and cold front scours out the moisture in the mid morning to
midday timeframe, west to east. Prevailing VFR is expected after
that scouring, but SCT low-MVFR level clouds certainly may linger
later in the day at KCLT. The other story is strong winds developing
behind the front; while gusts probably will pick up immediately
following the fropa, the CAA really ramps up by around 21z across
the NC mountains, which should easily produce widespread gusts
above 30 kt there until nearly daybreak Monday. In the Piedmont,
gusts will mainly be in the 20-25 kt range and die down this
evening. WSHFT to NW at KCLT expected around 21z.

Outlook: Winds taper off Monday, followed by quiet VFR conditions
likely thru the end of the week.

Confidence Table...

            08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z        02-06Z
KCLT       High  90%     Med   65%     High  80%     High 100%
KGSP       Med   62%     Med   63%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       Med   61%     High  81%     High  90%     High 100%
KHKY       Med   71%     Low   58%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       Med   61%     Low   59%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       Med   67%     Med   69%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Monday for NCZ033-048>053-
     058-059-062>065-501-503-505.
     Wind Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Monday for
     NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505.
     Freeze Watch from late tonight through Monday morning for
     NCZ035>037-056-057-068>070-502-504-506>510.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...Wimberley
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...Wimberley

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
742 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2020

GAZ010-017-NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-507-509-SCZ001>003-012345-
Rabun-Habersham-Madison-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
742 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for mountains of northeast
Georgia, western North Carolina and Upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Strong, gusty winds will bring the coldest air of the season across
the mountains on Sunday night. Scattered trees and limbs may be blown
down by the wind, and some power outages could result.

Temperatures are expected to drop below freezing early Monday
morning. The growing season has already ended across the northern
mountains of North Carolina. The National Weather Service does not
issue Freeze Warnings after the first day of November across the
mountains. The temperature may not drop below freezing until after
midnight Sunday night, technically the second day of November, so a
Freeze Warning may or may not be issued for this event.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505-012345-
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-
McDowell Mountains-
742 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2020

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the northern mountains of
western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Watch.

The strong winds will bring the coldest air of the season across the
mountains on Sunday night. Temperatures are expected to drop below
freezing early Monday morning. The growing season has already ended
across the northern mountains of North Carolina. The National Weather
Service does not issue Freeze Warnings after the first day of
November across the mountains. The temperature may not drop below
freezing until after midnight Sunday night, technically the second
day of November, so a Freeze Warning may or may not be issued for
this event.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ070>072-082-SCZ004>014-019-012345-
Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-
Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
742 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, Piedmont
North Carolina including the Charlotte Metro Area, and Upstate South
Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Cold temperatures and light winds on Monday night may allow areas of
frost to form early Tuesday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ035>037-056-057-068-069-502-504-506-508-510-012345-
Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-
Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-Greater Rutherford-
Eastern Polk-
742 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the foothills and northwest
Piedmont of western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Temperatures may drop below freezing on Sunday night, especially
across the foothills of North Carolina. Cold temperatures and light
winds on Monday night may allow areas of frost to form early Tuesday
morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

HG