Alert archive / North Carolina / Flash Flood Watches in 2020

Flash Flood Watch 13, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

August 21, 2020Rabun County, Georgia; 17 counties in North Carolina

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this flash flood watch at Aug 21, 2020, 4:01 AM EDT for Rabun County, Georgia; 17 counties in North Carolina. It took effect at Aug 21, 2020, 6:00 AM EDT. It was in force for 24 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Aug 21, 2020, 4:01 AM EDT (08:01 UTC)
In effect from
Aug 21, 2020, 6:00 AM EDT
Expired
Aug 22, 2020, 6:00 AM EDT
In force
24 hr
Issued by
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
Flood severity
None

Counties Rabun County, GA, Avery County, NC, Buncombe County, NC, Burke County, NC, Caldwell County, NC, Graham County, NC, Haywood County, NC, Henderson County, NC, Jackson County, NC, Macon County, NC, Madison County, NC, McDowell County, NC, Mitchell County, NC, Polk County, NC, Rutherford County, NC, Swain County, NC, Transylvania County, NC, Yancey County, NC

The radar

The Greer radar (KGSP), 81 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:03 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 00:00Z, 8.0 hours before the alert went out and 250 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 00:00Z on 2020-08-21Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 656 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 00:00Z on 2020-08-21The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 22 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
656 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-10 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
987 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
22 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
22 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
64 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

300 
WGUS62 KGSP 210801
FFAGSP

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
401 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 600 AM EDT TODAY THROUGH 600
AM EDT SATURDAY...

.A highly moist airmass will persist across the western
Carolinas and Northeast Georgia through tonight. Expect
thunderstorms producing high rainfall rates this afternoon
and into the overnight period across areas where water levels are
elevated from recent heavy precipitation. Storms may anchor or 
train over the same locations and produce fast rises and flash 
flooding of streams as well as inundate poor drainage urban areas.

GAZ010-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>507-509-SCZ001>003-
211615-
/O.NEW.KGSP.FF.A.0013.200821T1000Z-200822T1000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Rabun-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Polk Mountains-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-
Greenville Mountains-
Including the cities of Clayton, Pine Mountain, Mountain City, 
Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Faust, Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut,
Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck, Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, 
Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, Poplar, Alarka, 
Almond, Bryson City, Luada, Wesser, Waynesville, Waterville, 
Canton, Cruso, Cove Creek, Asheville, Robbinsville, Stecoah, 
Cullowhee, Tuckasegee, Sylva, Franklin, Rainbow Springs, Kyle, 
Highlands, Wolf Mountain, Cashiers, Brevard, Cedar Mountain, 
Little River, Hendersonville, Fletcher, Dana, East Flat Rock, 
Tuxedo, Etowah, Patterson, Kings Creek, Lenoir, Sawmills, 
Granite Falls, Jonas Ridge, Morganton, Pleasant Grove, Valdese, 
Ashford, Sugar Hill, Woodlawn, Old Fort, Marion, Nebo, 
Dysartsville, Fero, Glenwood, Chimney Rock State Park, Saluda, 
Mountain Rest, Walhalla, Westminster, Pumpkintown, Tigerville, 
Gowensville, Cleveland, and Slater-Marietta
401 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has issued
a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of northeast Georgia, western 
  North Carolina, and upstate South Carolina, including the 
  following areas, in northeast Georgia, Rabun. In western North 
  Carolina, Avery, Buncombe, Burke Mountains, Caldwell 
  Mountains, Eastern McDowell, Graham, Greater Burke, Greater 
  Caldwell, Haywood, Henderson, Macon, Madison, McDowell 
  Mountains, Mitchell, Northern Jackson, Polk Mountains, 
  Rutherford Mountains, Southern Jackson, Swain, Transylvania, 
  and Yancey. In upstate South Carolina, Greenville Mountains, 
  Oconee Mountains, and Pickens Mountains. 

* through late tonight

* Heavy rain will develop across areas which have already received
  high amounts of rainfall over the past 24 hours. Soil water
  levels are running high and the additional heavy rain may
  produce localized flash flooding. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

Krentz
4 follow-up statements
262 
WGUS62 KGSP 211605
FFAGSP

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1205 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020

.A very moist airmass will persist across the western
Carolinas and Northeast Georgia through tonight. While rain is 
tapering off across much of the area, scattered to numerous 
thunderstorms are expected to redevelop this afternoon and into the 
evening. With the heavy rainfall that has occurred in the past 24 
hours, it will not take much additional rainfall to produce flash 
flooding, especially in areas along the Blue Ridge escarpment.

GAZ010-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>507-509-SCZ001>003-220015-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.A.0013.000000T0000Z-200822T1000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Rabun-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-Polk
Mountains-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Including the cities of Banner Elk, Tuckasegee, Pumpkintown, Nebo, 
Lenoir, Burnsville, Waterville, Dysartsville, Jonas Ridge, Granite 
Falls, Woodlawn, Morganton, Walnut, Westminster, Newland, Celo, 
Ashford, Cullowhee, Allenstand, Cruso, Micaville, East Flat Rock, 
Mountain Rest, Walhalla, Pleasant Grove, Patterson, Slater-Marietta, 
Luada, Sylva, Ingalls, Clayton, Asheville, Glenwood, Gowensville, 
Chimney Rock State Park, Tigerville, Hot Springs, Marion, Cashiers, 
Luck, Cedar Mountain, Little River, Rainbow Springs, Mars Hill, 
Highlands, Wesser, Pine Mountain, Spruce Pine, Stecoah, Kyle, Wolf 
Mountain, Ramseytown, Faust, Franklin, Kings Creek, Swiss, Sugar 
Hill, Canton, Etowah, Dana, Busick, Cove Creek, Brevard, Old Fort, 
Tuxedo, Marshall, Almond, Waynesville, Mountain City, Fero, 
Sawmills, Fletcher, Bryson City, Hendersonville, Robbinsville, 
Cleveland, Poplar, Alarka, Saluda, and Valdese
1205 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of northeast Georgia...western North Carolina and upstate 
  South Carolina, including the following areas, in northeast 
  Georgia, Rabun. In western North Carolina, Avery, Buncombe, Burke 
  Mountains, Caldwell Mountains, Eastern McDowell, Graham, Greater 
  Burke, Greater Caldwell, Haywood, Henderson, Macon, Madison, 
  McDowell Mountains, Mitchell, Northern Jackson, Polk Mountains, 
  Rutherford Mountains, Southern Jackson, Swain, Transylvania and 
  Yancey. In upstate South Carolina, Greenville Mountains, Oconee 
  Mountains and Pickens Mountains.

* Through late tonight

* Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to redevelop 
  across the area this afternoon and evening. These will be capable 
  of producing very heavy rainfall rates which could result in rapid 
  development of flash flooding in light of the heavy rain that has 
  fallen across the Watch area during the past 24 hours.

* Additional heavy rainfall over already saturated areas will result 
  in rapid rises along streams and creeks, with quick inundation of 
  low lying areas. Significant flooding of urban areas is also 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

Lane
279 
WGUS62 KGSP 211836
FFAGSP

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
236 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020

.Scattered to numerous showers along with some thunderstorms are 
expected to redevelop this afternoon and evening across the 
mountains and foothills of North Carolina. These will be capable of 
producing locally heavy rainfall. With the heavy rainfall that has 
occurred in the past 24 hours, it will not take much additional 
rainfall to produce flash flooding, especially in areas along the 
Blue Ridge escarpment.

NCZ048-051-052-058-211945-
/O.CAN.KGSP.FF.A.0013.000000T0000Z-200822T1000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Madison-Swain-Haywood-Graham-
Including the cities of Mars Hill, Cove Creek, Wesser, Waterville, 
Marshall, Almond, Waynesville, Walnut, Stecoah, Luada, Bryson City, 
Faust, Robbinsville, Allenstand, Cruso, Hot Springs, Canton, Alarka, 
and Luck
236 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for a portion of western North Carolina, 
including the following areas, Graham, Haywood, Madison and Swain 
has been cancelled.

While additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop 
over the area this evening, and may produce locally heavy rainfall, 
the organized threat of flash flooding has diminished. The Flash 
Flood Watch is therefore cancelled.

$$

GAZ010-NCZ033-049-050-053-059-062>065-501>507-509-SCZ001>003-220245-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.A.0013.000000T0000Z-200822T1000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Rabun-Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Buncombe-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern
Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-
Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-Oconee Mountains-Pickens
Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Including the cities of Banner Elk, Tuckasegee, Nebo, Lenoir, 
Burnsville, Tigerville, Dysartsville, Jonas Ridge, Granite Falls, 
Woodlawn, Morganton, Westminster, Newland, Celo, Ashford, Cullowhee, 
Pumpkintown, Ingalls, East Flat Rock, Mountain Rest, Walhalla, 
Patterson, Saluda, Sylva, Micaville, Clayton, Asheville, Glenwood, 
Gowensville, Chimney Rock State Park, Marion, Cashiers, Cedar 
Mountain, Little River, Rainbow Springs, Highlands, Pine Mountain, 
Spruce Pine, Kyle, Ramseytown, Poplar, Franklin, Kings Creek, Swiss, 
Pleasant Grove, Etowah, Dana, Busick, Slater-Marietta, Old Fort, 
Tuxedo, Mountain City, Fero, Sawmills, Brevard, Hendersonville, 
Fletcher, Cleveland, Wolf Mountain, Sugar Hill, and Valdese
236 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of northeast Georgia...western North Carolina and upstate 
  South Carolina, including the following areas, in northeast 
  Georgia, Rabun. In western North Carolina, Avery, Buncombe, Burke 
  Mountains, Caldwell Mountains, Eastern McDowell, Greater Burke, 
  Greater Caldwell, Henderson, Macon, McDowell Mountains, Mitchell, 
  Northern Jackson, Polk Mountains, Rutherford Mountains, Southern 
  Jackson, Transylvania and Yancey. In upstate South Carolina, 
  Greenville Mountains, Oconee Mountains and Pickens Mountains.

* Through late tonight

* Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to redevelop 
  across the area later this afternoon and evening. These will be 
  capable of producing very heavy rainfall rates which could result 
  in rapid development of flash flooding in light of the heavy rain 
  that has fallen across the Watch area during the past 24 hours.

* Additional heavy rainfall over already saturated areas could 
  result in rapid rises along streams and creeks, with quick 
  inundation of low lying areas. Significant flooding of urban areas 
  is also possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

Lane
303 
WGUS62 KGSP 220229
FFAGSP

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1029 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020

.Scattered showers with a few isolated thunderstorms will continue 
across the mountains and foothills overnight. Wet antecedent 
conditions combined with these efficient rainfall makers may produce 
flash flooding, especially near the escarpment.    .

GAZ010-NCZ033-049-050-053-059-062>065-501>507-509-SCZ001>003-221000-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.A.0013.000000T0000Z-200822T1000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Rabun-Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Buncombe-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern
Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-
Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-Oconee Mountains-Pickens
Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Including the cities of Banner Elk, Tuckasegee, Nebo, Lenoir, 
Burnsville, Tigerville, Dysartsville, Jonas Ridge, Granite Falls, 
Woodlawn, Morganton, Westminster, Newland, Celo, Ashford, Cullowhee, 
Pumpkintown, Ingalls, East Flat Rock, Mountain Rest, Walhalla, 
Patterson, Saluda, Sylva, Micaville, Clayton, Asheville, Glenwood, 
Gowensville, Chimney Rock State Park, Marion, Cashiers, Cedar 
Mountain, Little River, Rainbow Springs, Highlands, Pine Mountain, 
Spruce Pine, Kyle, Ramseytown, Poplar, Franklin, Kings Creek, Swiss, 
Pleasant Grove, Etowah, Dana, Busick, Slater-Marietta, Old Fort, 
Tuxedo, Mountain City, Fero, Sawmills, Brevard, Hendersonville, 
Fletcher, Cleveland, Wolf Mountain, Sugar Hill, and Valdese
1029 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of northeast Georgia...western North Carolina and upstate 
  South Carolina, including the following areas, in northeast 
  Georgia, Rabun. In western North Carolina, Avery, Buncombe, Burke 
  Mountains, Caldwell Mountains, Eastern McDowell, Greater Burke, 
  Greater Caldwell, Henderson, Macon, McDowell Mountains, Mitchell, 
  Northern Jackson, Polk Mountains, Rutherford Mountains, Southern 
  Jackson, Transylvania and Yancey. In upstate South Carolina, 
  Greenville Mountains, Oconee Mountains and Pickens Mountains.

* Until 6 AM EDT Saturday

* Slow moving and training of heavy showers and a few thunderstorms 
  overnight combined with wet antecedent conditions will support a 
  continued threat of flash flooding.

* Additional heavy rainfall over already saturated areas could 
  result in rapid rises along streams and creeks, with quick 
  inundation of low lying areas. Significant flooding of urban areas 
  is also possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

RMM
443 
WGUS62 KGSP 221002
FFAGSP

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
602 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2020

...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS EXPIRED AT 6 AM EDT...

GAZ010-NCZ033-049-050-053-059-062>065-501>507-509-SCZ001>003-
221115-
/O.EXP.KGSP.FF.A.0013.000000T0000Z-200822T1000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Rabun-Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Buncombe-Northern Jackson-Macon-
Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-
Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-
Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Including the cities of Clayton, Pine Mountain, Mountain City, 
Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville,
Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, Poplar, Asheville, Cullowhee, 
Tuckasegee, Sylva, Franklin, Rainbow Springs, Kyle, Highlands, 
Wolf Mountain, Cashiers, Brevard, Cedar Mountain, Little River, 
Hendersonville, Fletcher, Dana, East Flat Rock, Tuxedo, Etowah, 
Patterson, Kings Creek, Lenoir, Sawmills, Granite Falls, 
Jonas Ridge, Morganton, Pleasant Grove, Valdese, Ashford, 
Sugar Hill, Woodlawn, Old Fort, Marion, Nebo, Dysartsville, Fero,
Glenwood, Chimney Rock State Park, Saluda, Mountain Rest, 
Walhalla, Westminster, Pumpkintown, Tigerville, Gowensville, 
Cleveland, and Slater-Marietta
602 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS EXPIRED...

The Flash Flood Watch for portions of northeast Georgia, western
North Carolina, and upstate South Carolina has expired. 

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood watch went out at Aug 21, 3:40 AM EDT, 21 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 21, 3:40 AM EDT, 21 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
340 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level trough will persist across the Lower Mississippi River
through Saturday. This will result in high temperatures a little
below normal with elevated rain and thunderstorm chances across the
region. The upper trough will weaken over the weekend, allowing
temperatures and precipitation chances to return to normal as we head
into next week. Attention will turn to the tropics next week as a
potential hurricane is expected to pass Florida on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
An area of widespread rain with embedded thunder continues to affect
the wrn zones. Precip rates have fallen and lightning has become
less prevalent while updrafts weaken as is evident in warming cloud
tops. Not anticipating a sigfnt hydro threat, but a few poor
drainage areas and low-lying locales could see moderate ponding
across the srn/cent NC mtns.

The atmos will be quite moist today as PWATs remain elevated abv
normal arnd 1.8 inches. This is due to very good moist flux off the
GOM while a l/w h5 trof axis with a closed upper low remains across
the Deep South. The alignment of the upper trof will also provide
good general lift as difl flow persists and periods of vort energy
traverse the flow. Meanwhile...a sfc wedge will remain in place and
trap llvl moisture this morning and hold in widespread clouds and
rain until noon or so. With the aforementioned lift and h85 flow
bringing Atl moisture, expect isol/sct tstms will efficiently
generate by the early afternoon.

Some of these cells will be good rainmakers and any training or
anchoring could create flooding issues. In fact, with the high
antecedent conds and expected coverage of of deep convec over the
wrn zones...will issue a Flash Flood Watch for parts of NE GA, the
higher elevations of the Upstate and the NC mtns effective from 6am
this morning until 6am Sat morning.

Soundings show skinny sbCAPE, yet areas of differential heating will
allow some storms to become severe as an active TMB looks to develop
while the wedge begins to break down late in the afternoon. This
bndry will likely set up across the I-85 corridor and provide a
focusing zone for deep stg/svr convection as it slowly progresses
north into the evening hrs. Overnight...the pattern still looks
highly moist and active with the better coverage of storms and heavy
precip occurring across the wrn zones closer to the upper and mech
lift/forcing. Max temps will be held abt 10 degrees below normal
with a small diurnal drop off to the mid/upper 60s overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 AM Fri: The Bermuda High will deepen and retrograde
slightly from Saturday through Monday morning. A light but moist
southerly to southwesterly flow should persist thru the period. The
well defined shortwave over the lower OH and TN valleys at the
start of the period will fill and basically be absorbed into
a shortwave passing across the northern Great Lakes. A lobe of
vorticity associated with the wave looks to swing across our CWA
Saturday afternoon and evening, which in light of the seasonable
CAPE progs and southerly flow, would suggest at least climatological
scattered to numerous PoPs; model QPF is uncharacteristically
muted on the NAM and Canadian during the diurnal max Saturday,
perhaps reflecting the subsidence associated with the ridge. The NAM
and Canadian are a little slower to lift the shortwave out of the
region, which may explain their uptick in QPF Saturday night. Lapse
rates and buoyancy appear to be no better Sunday, and perhaps even
a bit worse due to the continued building of the ridge. PWATs will
rebound, though, and the additional moisture may make up for that,
so PoPs are only about 10 percent lower. Max temps will be near
climo, with mins a bit above climo. Storm motion should be fairly
slow owing to weak flow within the column, and locally heavy rain
(particularly Sunday) could maintain wet antecedent conditions
heading into what could be an active medium range.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 245 AM Fri: The available deterministic models are fairly
close to the hurricane models in taking TD 14 into the far eastern
Gulf of Mexico early in the medium range. For what it's worth,
they similarly agree on TD 13 heading northward toward the Texas
coast. The systems will approach the CONUS within the relative
weakness between a deep anticyclone centered over the Rockies
and that associated with the Bermuda High. If nothing else
their arrival should bring abundant moisture to a broad swath
of the Southern states, but it is not yet clear how that will be
distributed and therefore how pronounced an impact that moisture
will have in our CWA. Monday and Tuesday afternoons could end up
with initiation/coverage suppressed by either poor lapse rates
associated with the deep ridge or by subsidence around the eastern
Gulf storm. PoPs below climo look warranted those days, at any
rate. Temps should rise back a little above climo, especially if
we manage to stay at least partly sunny.

A shortwave will dig into eastern Canada by the middle of next week,
carrying a cold front into the Northeast or maybe even Mid-Atlantic
(GFS is most bullish in that sense). If that front were to reach
our area in conjunction with the remnant of one of these TCs, the
latter half of next week could be especially wet. Model consensus
is good enough on the tropical moisture and QPF to at least trend
higher on PoPs from the early week, and lower on temps by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere: An active and changing wx pattern will
persist across all TAF sites thru the period. Ongoing convection
will linger this morning across the wrn zones and bring periodic low
CIGs and VSBY into the MVFR/IFR range at KAVL and KHKY over the next
couple hrs. Expect all sites to drop into MVFR/IFR with TEMPO LIFR
or VLIFR flight cats before daybreak as the atmos remains quite
moist. A ridge of hipres will keep CIGS low, likely in the IFR
range, thru noon with some lifting and scattering possible by the
afternoon. The ridge axis begins to break down in the later
afternoon and this will bring a bndry north along the I-85 corridor
where stg/svr tstms will be possible while the whole line pushes
northeast into the evening affecting all TAF sites with either TS,
VCTS, or PROB30 TSRA with flight restrictions thru the period. Winds
will remain aligned ne/ly outside the mtn valleys, with a shift to
se/ly at KCLT aft 02z. Winds at KAVL will remain upvalley generally
nw/ly to nne/ly.

Outlook: Coverage should then steadily decline for each
afternoon/evening from Sat into early next week.  Fog and low
stratus restrictions will be possible each morning, especially over
the usual mountain valleys.

Confidence Table...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       Med   76%     High  80%     High  96%     High  82%
KGSP       Med   73%     Med   77%     Med   78%     Med   66%
KAVL       Low   45%     Med   71%     High  87%     Low   52%
KHKY       Med   68%     High  81%     Med   74%     Low   57%
KGMU       Med   67%     Med   77%     Med   76%     Low   59%
KAND       Med   72%     Med   65%     High  85%     Med   75%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for GAZ010.
NC...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for NCZ033-048>053-058-
     059-062>065-501>507-509.
SC...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for SCZ001>003.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...SBK
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...SBK
Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 21, 1:53 AM EDT, 2 hours 8 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
153 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020

NCZ033-035>037-049-050-056-057-068>072-082-501>506-SCZ008-009-013-
014-220600-
Avery-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Yancey-Mitchell-Catawba-Rowan-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Cherokee-York-Union SC-Chester-
153 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina,
western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This morning.

There remains the possibility of a few thunderstorms redeveloping
overnight accompanied by cloud to ground lightning and brief heavy
rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop again on
Friday across the forecast area. A few storms could be strong to
severe, with strong to damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-507>510-
SCZ001>007-010>012-019-220600-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Madison-Swain-Haywood-
Buncombe-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-
Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Greenwood-
153 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, western
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This morning.

Numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue to threaten the
region into the overnight hours. The primary threat for storms
tonight will be occasional cloud to ground lightning and locally
heavy rainfall. There will also be a threat of localized flooding
from slow-moving storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop again on Friday
across the forecast area. A few storms could be strong to severe,
with strong to damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Krentz

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Aug 20, 11:34 PM EDT, 4 hours 27 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1134 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020

GAZ010-SCZ001-004-210430-
Rabun GA-Greater Oconee SC-Oconee Mountains SC-
1134 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL IMPACT EASTERN RABUN
AND OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 AM EDT...

At 1132 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking clusters of thunderstorms
with torrential rainfall developing and moving north across the
advised area.

Very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches per hour will be possible
in spots and perhaps as much as 3 inches of rain will accumulate
across the higher terrain overnight.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3456 8314 3459 8317 3461 8316 3461 8322
      3470 8335 3499 8338 3500 8311 3505 8293
      3501 8292 3499 8294 3495 8291 3481 8290
      3479 8288 3474 8290 3473 8286 3470 8286
      3470 8285 3467 8285 3464 8283 3448 8300
TIME...MOT...LOC 0332Z 180DEG 0KT 3473 8274

CSH
Special weather statement, Aug 21, 12:41 AM EDT, 3 hours 20 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1241 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020

GAZ010-NCZ059-062-063-SCZ001-210530-
Rabun GA-Southern Jackson NC-Northern Jackson NC-Macon NC-
Oconee Mountains SC-
1241 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL IMPACT RABUN...
MACON...SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON AND NORTHWESTERN OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL
130 AM EDT...

At 1240 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms with torrential
rainfall along a line extending from 13 miles north of Walhalla to 15
miles south of Franklin to 7 miles south of Clayton, and moving north
at 25 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Franklin, Clayton, Highlands, Mountain City, Tiger, Dillard, Sky
Valley, Cashiers, Lake Glenville and Tallulah Gorge State Park.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and torrential rainfall rates up to 3 inches
per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3528 8347 3527 8315 3489 8301 3488 8326
      3470 8335 3499 8355 3500 8348 3500 8352
      3502 8352 3504 8356
TIME...MOT...LOC 0440Z 159DEG 20KT 3496 8310 3497 8330 3478 8336

08
Special weather statement, Aug 21, 12:50 AM EDT, 3 hours 11 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1250 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020

SCZ001-002-005-006-010-210530-
Pickens Mountains SC-Greater Pickens SC-Anderson SC-
Oconee Mountains SC-Greater Greenville SC-
1250 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN
GREENVILLE...NORTHEASTERN ANDERSON...PICKENS AND NORTHEASTERN OCONEE
COUNTIES UNTIL 130 AM EDT...

At 1249 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms with torrential
rainfall along a line extending from 10 miles east of Walhalla to 15
miles south of Downtown Greenville, and moving north at 20 mph.

Locations to be impacted include... Greenville, Easley, Pickens,
Mauldin, Simpsonville, Berea, Welcome and Powdersville.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and torrential rainfall rates up to 3 inches
per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3482 8294 3502 8304 3506 8289 3487 8223
      3462 8222 3460 8223
TIME...MOT...LOC 0449Z 166DEG 15KT 3483 8289 3464 8230

08

The office that day

Everything else NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 21, 12:41 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPRabun49 min
Aug 21, 5:03 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPFranklin, Hart, Rabun, Stephens3 hr
Aug 21, 8:37 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPCleveland44 min
Aug 21, 9:17 AM EDTAreal Flood WarningGSPCleveland6 hr
Aug 21, 9:56 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPGaston45 min
Aug 21, 10:02 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPAlexander, Catawba, Lincoln43 min
Aug 21, 10:39 AM EDTFlash Flood WarningGSPCatawba, Gaston, Lincoln5 hr
Aug 21, 10:59 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPMecklenburg3 hr
Aug 21, 12:04 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPUnion26 min
Aug 21, 12:28 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPUnion32 min
Aug 20, 11:34 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPOconee56 min
Aug 21, 12:50 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPGreenville, Pickens40 min
Aug 21, 6:14 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPSpartanburg, Union3 hr
Aug 21, 7:35 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPCherokee106 min
Aug 21, 8:29 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPLaurens, Union52 min
Aug 21, 10:00 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPChester, York45 min
Aug 21, 10:46 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPChester, York3 hr
Aug 21, 11:41 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPYork34 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Watches in North Carolina, 2020Flash Flood Watches in Georgia, 2020Flash Flood Watches in South Carolina, 2020Every flash flood watch in 2020

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.