Alert archive / North Carolina / Flash Flood Watches in 2020
Flash Flood Watch 13, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this flash flood watch at Aug 21, 2020, 4:01 AM EDT for Rabun County, Georgia; 17 counties in North Carolina. It took effect at Aug 21, 2020, 6:00 AM EDT. It was in force for 24 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 21, 2020, 4:01 AM EDT (08:01 UTC)
- In effect from
- Aug 21, 2020, 6:00 AM EDT
- Expired
- Aug 22, 2020, 6:00 AM EDT
- In force
- 24 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
- Flood severity
- None
Counties Rabun County, GA, Avery County, NC, Buncombe County, NC, Burke County, NC, Caldwell County, NC, Graham County, NC, Haywood County, NC, Henderson County, NC, Jackson County, NC, Macon County, NC, Madison County, NC, McDowell County, NC, Mitchell County, NC, Polk County, NC, Rutherford County, NC, Swain County, NC, Transylvania County, NC, Yancey County, NC
The radar
The Greer radar (KGSP), 81 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:03 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 00:00Z, 8.0 hours before the alert went out and 250 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 656 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -10 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 987 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 22 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 22 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 64 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.8
The text
As transmitted.
300 WGUS62 KGSP 210801 FFAGSP URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Flood Watch National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 401 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 600 AM EDT TODAY THROUGH 600 AM EDT SATURDAY... .A highly moist airmass will persist across the western Carolinas and Northeast Georgia through tonight. Expect thunderstorms producing high rainfall rates this afternoon and into the overnight period across areas where water levels are elevated from recent heavy precipitation. Storms may anchor or train over the same locations and produce fast rises and flash flooding of streams as well as inundate poor drainage urban areas. GAZ010-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>507-509-SCZ001>003- 211615- /O.NEW.KGSP.FF.A.0013.200821T1000Z-200822T1000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Rabun-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham- Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson- Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke- McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains- Polk Mountains-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains- Greenville Mountains- Including the cities of Clayton, Pine Mountain, Mountain City, Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Faust, Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck, Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, Poplar, Alarka, Almond, Bryson City, Luada, Wesser, Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, Cruso, Cove Creek, Asheville, Robbinsville, Stecoah, Cullowhee, Tuckasegee, Sylva, Franklin, Rainbow Springs, Kyle, Highlands, Wolf Mountain, Cashiers, Brevard, Cedar Mountain, Little River, Hendersonville, Fletcher, Dana, East Flat Rock, Tuxedo, Etowah, Patterson, Kings Creek, Lenoir, Sawmills, Granite Falls, Jonas Ridge, Morganton, Pleasant Grove, Valdese, Ashford, Sugar Hill, Woodlawn, Old Fort, Marion, Nebo, Dysartsville, Fero, Glenwood, Chimney Rock State Park, Saluda, Mountain Rest, Walhalla, Westminster, Pumpkintown, Tigerville, Gowensville, Cleveland, and Slater-Marietta 401 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has issued a * Flash Flood Watch for portions of northeast Georgia, western North Carolina, and upstate South Carolina, including the following areas, in northeast Georgia, Rabun. In western North Carolina, Avery, Buncombe, Burke Mountains, Caldwell Mountains, Eastern McDowell, Graham, Greater Burke, Greater Caldwell, Haywood, Henderson, Macon, Madison, McDowell Mountains, Mitchell, Northern Jackson, Polk Mountains, Rutherford Mountains, Southern Jackson, Swain, Transylvania, and Yancey. In upstate South Carolina, Greenville Mountains, Oconee Mountains, and Pickens Mountains. * through late tonight * Heavy rain will develop across areas which have already received high amounts of rainfall over the past 24 hours. Soil water levels are running high and the additional heavy rain may produce localized flash flooding. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation. You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$ Krentz
4 follow-up statements
262 WGUS62 KGSP 211605 FFAGSP Flood Watch National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 1205 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020 .A very moist airmass will persist across the western Carolinas and Northeast Georgia through tonight. While rain is tapering off across much of the area, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to redevelop this afternoon and into the evening. With the heavy rainfall that has occurred in the past 24 hours, it will not take much additional rainfall to produce flash flooding, especially in areas along the Blue Ridge escarpment. GAZ010-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>507-509-SCZ001>003-220015- /O.CON.KGSP.FF.A.0013.000000T0000Z-200822T1000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Rabun-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham- Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson- Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke- McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains- Including the cities of Banner Elk, Tuckasegee, Pumpkintown, Nebo, Lenoir, Burnsville, Waterville, Dysartsville, Jonas Ridge, Granite Falls, Woodlawn, Morganton, Walnut, Westminster, Newland, Celo, Ashford, Cullowhee, Allenstand, Cruso, Micaville, East Flat Rock, Mountain Rest, Walhalla, Pleasant Grove, Patterson, Slater-Marietta, Luada, Sylva, Ingalls, Clayton, Asheville, Glenwood, Gowensville, Chimney Rock State Park, Tigerville, Hot Springs, Marion, Cashiers, Luck, Cedar Mountain, Little River, Rainbow Springs, Mars Hill, Highlands, Wesser, Pine Mountain, Spruce Pine, Stecoah, Kyle, Wolf Mountain, Ramseytown, Faust, Franklin, Kings Creek, Swiss, Sugar Hill, Canton, Etowah, Dana, Busick, Cove Creek, Brevard, Old Fort, Tuxedo, Marshall, Almond, Waynesville, Mountain City, Fero, Sawmills, Fletcher, Bryson City, Hendersonville, Robbinsville, Cleveland, Poplar, Alarka, Saluda, and Valdese 1205 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... The Flash Flood Watch continues for * Portions of northeast Georgia...western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina, including the following areas, in northeast Georgia, Rabun. In western North Carolina, Avery, Buncombe, Burke Mountains, Caldwell Mountains, Eastern McDowell, Graham, Greater Burke, Greater Caldwell, Haywood, Henderson, Macon, Madison, McDowell Mountains, Mitchell, Northern Jackson, Polk Mountains, Rutherford Mountains, Southern Jackson, Swain, Transylvania and Yancey. In upstate South Carolina, Greenville Mountains, Oconee Mountains and Pickens Mountains. * Through late tonight * Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to redevelop across the area this afternoon and evening. These will be capable of producing very heavy rainfall rates which could result in rapid development of flash flooding in light of the heavy rain that has fallen across the Watch area during the past 24 hours. * Additional heavy rainfall over already saturated areas will result in rapid rises along streams and creeks, with quick inundation of low lying areas. Significant flooding of urban areas is also possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation. You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$ Lane
279 WGUS62 KGSP 211836 FFAGSP Flood Watch National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 236 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020 .Scattered to numerous showers along with some thunderstorms are expected to redevelop this afternoon and evening across the mountains and foothills of North Carolina. These will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall. With the heavy rainfall that has occurred in the past 24 hours, it will not take much additional rainfall to produce flash flooding, especially in areas along the Blue Ridge escarpment. NCZ048-051-052-058-211945- /O.CAN.KGSP.FF.A.0013.000000T0000Z-200822T1000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Madison-Swain-Haywood-Graham- Including the cities of Mars Hill, Cove Creek, Wesser, Waterville, Marshall, Almond, Waynesville, Walnut, Stecoah, Luada, Bryson City, Faust, Robbinsville, Allenstand, Cruso, Hot Springs, Canton, Alarka, and Luck 236 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED... The Flash Flood Watch for a portion of western North Carolina, including the following areas, Graham, Haywood, Madison and Swain has been cancelled. While additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over the area this evening, and may produce locally heavy rainfall, the organized threat of flash flooding has diminished. The Flash Flood Watch is therefore cancelled. $$ GAZ010-NCZ033-049-050-053-059-062>065-501>507-509-SCZ001>003-220245- /O.CON.KGSP.FF.A.0013.000000T0000Z-200822T1000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Rabun-Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Buncombe-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell- Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell- Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains- Including the cities of Banner Elk, Tuckasegee, Nebo, Lenoir, Burnsville, Tigerville, Dysartsville, Jonas Ridge, Granite Falls, Woodlawn, Morganton, Westminster, Newland, Celo, Ashford, Cullowhee, Pumpkintown, Ingalls, East Flat Rock, Mountain Rest, Walhalla, Patterson, Saluda, Sylva, Micaville, Clayton, Asheville, Glenwood, Gowensville, Chimney Rock State Park, Marion, Cashiers, Cedar Mountain, Little River, Rainbow Springs, Highlands, Pine Mountain, Spruce Pine, Kyle, Ramseytown, Poplar, Franklin, Kings Creek, Swiss, Pleasant Grove, Etowah, Dana, Busick, Slater-Marietta, Old Fort, Tuxedo, Mountain City, Fero, Sawmills, Brevard, Hendersonville, Fletcher, Cleveland, Wolf Mountain, Sugar Hill, and Valdese 236 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... The Flash Flood Watch continues for * Portions of northeast Georgia...western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina, including the following areas, in northeast Georgia, Rabun. In western North Carolina, Avery, Buncombe, Burke Mountains, Caldwell Mountains, Eastern McDowell, Greater Burke, Greater Caldwell, Henderson, Macon, McDowell Mountains, Mitchell, Northern Jackson, Polk Mountains, Rutherford Mountains, Southern Jackson, Transylvania and Yancey. In upstate South Carolina, Greenville Mountains, Oconee Mountains and Pickens Mountains. * Through late tonight * Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to redevelop across the area later this afternoon and evening. These will be capable of producing very heavy rainfall rates which could result in rapid development of flash flooding in light of the heavy rain that has fallen across the Watch area during the past 24 hours. * Additional heavy rainfall over already saturated areas could result in rapid rises along streams and creeks, with quick inundation of low lying areas. Significant flooding of urban areas is also possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation. You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$ Lane
303 WGUS62 KGSP 220229 FFAGSP Flood Watch National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 1029 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020 .Scattered showers with a few isolated thunderstorms will continue across the mountains and foothills overnight. Wet antecedent conditions combined with these efficient rainfall makers may produce flash flooding, especially near the escarpment. . GAZ010-NCZ033-049-050-053-059-062>065-501>507-509-SCZ001>003-221000- /O.CON.KGSP.FF.A.0013.000000T0000Z-200822T1000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Rabun-Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Buncombe-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell- Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell- Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains- Including the cities of Banner Elk, Tuckasegee, Nebo, Lenoir, Burnsville, Tigerville, Dysartsville, Jonas Ridge, Granite Falls, Woodlawn, Morganton, Westminster, Newland, Celo, Ashford, Cullowhee, Pumpkintown, Ingalls, East Flat Rock, Mountain Rest, Walhalla, Patterson, Saluda, Sylva, Micaville, Clayton, Asheville, Glenwood, Gowensville, Chimney Rock State Park, Marion, Cashiers, Cedar Mountain, Little River, Rainbow Springs, Highlands, Pine Mountain, Spruce Pine, Kyle, Ramseytown, Poplar, Franklin, Kings Creek, Swiss, Pleasant Grove, Etowah, Dana, Busick, Slater-Marietta, Old Fort, Tuxedo, Mountain City, Fero, Sawmills, Brevard, Hendersonville, Fletcher, Cleveland, Wolf Mountain, Sugar Hill, and Valdese 1029 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY... The Flash Flood Watch continues for * Portions of northeast Georgia...western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina, including the following areas, in northeast Georgia, Rabun. In western North Carolina, Avery, Buncombe, Burke Mountains, Caldwell Mountains, Eastern McDowell, Greater Burke, Greater Caldwell, Henderson, Macon, McDowell Mountains, Mitchell, Northern Jackson, Polk Mountains, Rutherford Mountains, Southern Jackson, Transylvania and Yancey. In upstate South Carolina, Greenville Mountains, Oconee Mountains and Pickens Mountains. * Until 6 AM EDT Saturday * Slow moving and training of heavy showers and a few thunderstorms overnight combined with wet antecedent conditions will support a continued threat of flash flooding. * Additional heavy rainfall over already saturated areas could result in rapid rises along streams and creeks, with quick inundation of low lying areas. Significant flooding of urban areas is also possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation. You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$ RMM
443 WGUS62 KGSP 221002 FFAGSP Flood Watch National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 602 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2020 ...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS EXPIRED AT 6 AM EDT... GAZ010-NCZ033-049-050-053-059-062>065-501>507-509-SCZ001>003- 221115- /O.EXP.KGSP.FF.A.0013.000000T0000Z-200822T1000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Rabun-Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Buncombe-Northern Jackson-Macon- Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-Caldwell Mountains- Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains- Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains- Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains- Including the cities of Clayton, Pine Mountain, Mountain City, Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, Poplar, Asheville, Cullowhee, Tuckasegee, Sylva, Franklin, Rainbow Springs, Kyle, Highlands, Wolf Mountain, Cashiers, Brevard, Cedar Mountain, Little River, Hendersonville, Fletcher, Dana, East Flat Rock, Tuxedo, Etowah, Patterson, Kings Creek, Lenoir, Sawmills, Granite Falls, Jonas Ridge, Morganton, Pleasant Grove, Valdese, Ashford, Sugar Hill, Woodlawn, Old Fort, Marion, Nebo, Dysartsville, Fero, Glenwood, Chimney Rock State Park, Saluda, Mountain Rest, Walhalla, Westminster, Pumpkintown, Tigerville, Gowensville, Cleveland, and Slater-Marietta 602 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2020 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS EXPIRED... The Flash Flood Watch for portions of northeast Georgia, western North Carolina, and upstate South Carolina has expired. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flash flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood watch went out at Aug 21, 3:40 AM EDT, 21 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 21, 3:40 AM EDT, 21 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
340 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level trough will persist across the Lower Mississippi River
through Saturday. This will result in high temperatures a little
below normal with elevated rain and thunderstorm chances across the
region. The upper trough will weaken over the weekend, allowing
temperatures and precipitation chances to return to normal as we head
into next week. Attention will turn to the tropics next week as a
potential hurricane is expected to pass Florida on Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
An area of widespread rain with embedded thunder continues to affect
the wrn zones. Precip rates have fallen and lightning has become
less prevalent while updrafts weaken as is evident in warming cloud
tops. Not anticipating a sigfnt hydro threat, but a few poor
drainage areas and low-lying locales could see moderate ponding
across the srn/cent NC mtns.
The atmos will be quite moist today as PWATs remain elevated abv
normal arnd 1.8 inches. This is due to very good moist flux off the
GOM while a l/w h5 trof axis with a closed upper low remains across
the Deep South. The alignment of the upper trof will also provide
good general lift as difl flow persists and periods of vort energy
traverse the flow. Meanwhile...a sfc wedge will remain in place and
trap llvl moisture this morning and hold in widespread clouds and
rain until noon or so. With the aforementioned lift and h85 flow
bringing Atl moisture, expect isol/sct tstms will efficiently
generate by the early afternoon.
Some of these cells will be good rainmakers and any training or
anchoring could create flooding issues. In fact, with the high
antecedent conds and expected coverage of of deep convec over the
wrn zones...will issue a Flash Flood Watch for parts of NE GA, the
higher elevations of the Upstate and the NC mtns effective from 6am
this morning until 6am Sat morning.
Soundings show skinny sbCAPE, yet areas of differential heating will
allow some storms to become severe as an active TMB looks to develop
while the wedge begins to break down late in the afternoon. This
bndry will likely set up across the I-85 corridor and provide a
focusing zone for deep stg/svr convection as it slowly progresses
north into the evening hrs. Overnight...the pattern still looks
highly moist and active with the better coverage of storms and heavy
precip occurring across the wrn zones closer to the upper and mech
lift/forcing. Max temps will be held abt 10 degrees below normal
with a small diurnal drop off to the mid/upper 60s overnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 AM Fri: The Bermuda High will deepen and retrograde
slightly from Saturday through Monday morning. A light but moist
southerly to southwesterly flow should persist thru the period. The
well defined shortwave over the lower OH and TN valleys at the
start of the period will fill and basically be absorbed into
a shortwave passing across the northern Great Lakes. A lobe of
vorticity associated with the wave looks to swing across our CWA
Saturday afternoon and evening, which in light of the seasonable
CAPE progs and southerly flow, would suggest at least climatological
scattered to numerous PoPs; model QPF is uncharacteristically
muted on the NAM and Canadian during the diurnal max Saturday,
perhaps reflecting the subsidence associated with the ridge. The NAM
and Canadian are a little slower to lift the shortwave out of the
region, which may explain their uptick in QPF Saturday night. Lapse
rates and buoyancy appear to be no better Sunday, and perhaps even
a bit worse due to the continued building of the ridge. PWATs will
rebound, though, and the additional moisture may make up for that,
so PoPs are only about 10 percent lower. Max temps will be near
climo, with mins a bit above climo. Storm motion should be fairly
slow owing to weak flow within the column, and locally heavy rain
(particularly Sunday) could maintain wet antecedent conditions
heading into what could be an active medium range.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 245 AM Fri: The available deterministic models are fairly
close to the hurricane models in taking TD 14 into the far eastern
Gulf of Mexico early in the medium range. For what it's worth,
they similarly agree on TD 13 heading northward toward the Texas
coast. The systems will approach the CONUS within the relative
weakness between a deep anticyclone centered over the Rockies
and that associated with the Bermuda High. If nothing else
their arrival should bring abundant moisture to a broad swath
of the Southern states, but it is not yet clear how that will be
distributed and therefore how pronounced an impact that moisture
will have in our CWA. Monday and Tuesday afternoons could end up
with initiation/coverage suppressed by either poor lapse rates
associated with the deep ridge or by subsidence around the eastern
Gulf storm. PoPs below climo look warranted those days, at any
rate. Temps should rise back a little above climo, especially if
we manage to stay at least partly sunny.
A shortwave will dig into eastern Canada by the middle of next week,
carrying a cold front into the Northeast or maybe even Mid-Atlantic
(GFS is most bullish in that sense). If that front were to reach
our area in conjunction with the remnant of one of these TCs, the
latter half of next week could be especially wet. Model consensus
is good enough on the tropical moisture and QPF to at least trend
higher on PoPs from the early week, and lower on temps by Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere: An active and changing wx pattern will
persist across all TAF sites thru the period. Ongoing convection
will linger this morning across the wrn zones and bring periodic low
CIGs and VSBY into the MVFR/IFR range at KAVL and KHKY over the next
couple hrs. Expect all sites to drop into MVFR/IFR with TEMPO LIFR
or VLIFR flight cats before daybreak as the atmos remains quite
moist. A ridge of hipres will keep CIGS low, likely in the IFR
range, thru noon with some lifting and scattering possible by the
afternoon. The ridge axis begins to break down in the later
afternoon and this will bring a bndry north along the I-85 corridor
where stg/svr tstms will be possible while the whole line pushes
northeast into the evening affecting all TAF sites with either TS,
VCTS, or PROB30 TSRA with flight restrictions thru the period. Winds
will remain aligned ne/ly outside the mtn valleys, with a shift to
se/ly at KCLT aft 02z. Winds at KAVL will remain upvalley generally
nw/ly to nne/ly.
Outlook: Coverage should then steadily decline for each
afternoon/evening from Sat into early next week. Fog and low
stratus restrictions will be possible each morning, especially over
the usual mountain valleys.
Confidence Table...
07-13Z 13-19Z 19-01Z 01-06Z
KCLT Med 76% High 80% High 96% High 82%
KGSP Med 73% Med 77% Med 78% Med 66%
KAVL Low 45% Med 71% High 87% Low 52%
KHKY Med 68% High 81% Med 74% Low 57%
KGMU Med 67% Med 77% Med 76% Low 59%
KAND Med 72% Med 65% High 85% Med 75%
The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:
www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for GAZ010.
NC...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for NCZ033-048>053-058-
059-062>065-501>507-509.
SC...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for SCZ001>003.
&&
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...SBK
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...SBKHazardous weather outlook, Aug 21, 1:53 AM EDT, 2 hours 8 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 153 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020 NCZ033-035>037-049-050-056-057-068>072-082-501>506-SCZ008-009-013- 014-220600- Avery-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Yancey-Mitchell-Catawba-Rowan- Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC- Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke- McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Cherokee-York-Union SC-Chester- 153 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina. .DAY ONE...This morning. There remains the possibility of a few thunderstorms redeveloping overnight accompanied by cloud to ground lightning and brief heavy rain. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop again on Friday across the forecast area. A few storms could be strong to severe, with strong to damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... None. GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-507>510- SCZ001>007-010>012-019-220600- Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Madison-Swain-Haywood- Buncombe-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania- Henderson-Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains- Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains- Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg- Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Greenwood- 153 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina. .DAY ONE...This morning. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue to threaten the region into the overnight hours. The primary threat for storms tonight will be occasional cloud to ground lightning and locally heavy rainfall. There will also be a threat of localized flooding from slow-moving storms. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop again on Friday across the forecast area. A few storms could be strong to severe, with strong to damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... None. Krentz
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Aug 20, 11:34 PM EDT, 4 hours 27 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1134 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020
GAZ010-SCZ001-004-210430-
Rabun GA-Greater Oconee SC-Oconee Mountains SC-
1134 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020
...THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL IMPACT EASTERN RABUN
AND OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 AM EDT...
At 1132 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking clusters of thunderstorms
with torrential rainfall developing and moving north across the
advised area.
Very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches per hour will be possible
in spots and perhaps as much as 3 inches of rain will accumulate
across the higher terrain overnight.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.
&&
LAT...LON 3456 8314 3459 8317 3461 8316 3461 8322
3470 8335 3499 8338 3500 8311 3505 8293
3501 8292 3499 8294 3495 8291 3481 8290
3479 8288 3474 8290 3473 8286 3470 8286
3470 8285 3467 8285 3464 8283 3448 8300
TIME...MOT...LOC 0332Z 180DEG 0KT 3473 8274
CSHSpecial weather statement, Aug 21, 12:41 AM EDT, 3 hours 20 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1241 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020
GAZ010-NCZ059-062-063-SCZ001-210530-
Rabun GA-Southern Jackson NC-Northern Jackson NC-Macon NC-
Oconee Mountains SC-
1241 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020
...THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL IMPACT RABUN...
MACON...SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON AND NORTHWESTERN OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL
130 AM EDT...
At 1240 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms with torrential
rainfall along a line extending from 13 miles north of Walhalla to 15
miles south of Franklin to 7 miles south of Clayton, and moving north
at 25 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Franklin, Clayton, Highlands, Mountain City, Tiger, Dillard, Sky
Valley, Cashiers, Lake Glenville and Tallulah Gorge State Park.
Wind gusts up to 40 mph and torrential rainfall rates up to 3 inches
per hour will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.
&&
LAT...LON 3528 8347 3527 8315 3489 8301 3488 8326
3470 8335 3499 8355 3500 8348 3500 8352
3502 8352 3504 8356
TIME...MOT...LOC 0440Z 159DEG 20KT 3496 8310 3497 8330 3478 8336
08Special weather statement, Aug 21, 12:50 AM EDT, 3 hours 11 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1250 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020
SCZ001-002-005-006-010-210530-
Pickens Mountains SC-Greater Pickens SC-Anderson SC-
Oconee Mountains SC-Greater Greenville SC-
1250 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020
...THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN
GREENVILLE...NORTHEASTERN ANDERSON...PICKENS AND NORTHEASTERN OCONEE
COUNTIES UNTIL 130 AM EDT...
At 1249 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms with torrential
rainfall along a line extending from 10 miles east of Walhalla to 15
miles south of Downtown Greenville, and moving north at 20 mph.
Locations to be impacted include... Greenville, Easley, Pickens,
Mauldin, Simpsonville, Berea, Welcome and Powdersville.
Wind gusts up to 40 mph and torrential rainfall rates up to 3 inches
per hour will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.
&&
LAT...LON 3482 8294 3502 8304 3506 8289 3487 8223
3462 8222 3460 8223
TIME...MOT...LOC 0449Z 166DEG 15KT 3483 8289 3464 8230
08The office that day
Everything else NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 12:41 AM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | Rabun | 49 min |
| Aug 21, 5:03 AM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | GSP | Franklin, Hart, Rabun, Stephens | 3 hr |
| Aug 21, 8:37 AM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | GSP | Cleveland | 44 min |
| Aug 21, 9:17 AM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | GSP | Cleveland | 6 hr |
| Aug 21, 9:56 AM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | GSP | Gaston | 45 min |
| Aug 21, 10:02 AM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | Alexander, Catawba, Lincoln | 43 min |
| Aug 21, 10:39 AM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | GSP | Catawba, Gaston, Lincoln | 5 hr |
| Aug 21, 10:59 AM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | GSP | Mecklenburg | 3 hr |
| Aug 21, 12:04 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | Union | 26 min |
| Aug 21, 12:28 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | Union | 32 min |
| Aug 20, 11:34 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | Oconee | 56 min |
| Aug 21, 12:50 AM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | Greenville, Pickens | 40 min |
| Aug 21, 6:14 AM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | GSP | Spartanburg, Union | 3 hr |
| Aug 21, 7:35 AM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | GSP | Cherokee | 106 min |
| Aug 21, 8:29 AM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | GSP | Laurens, Union | 52 min |
| Aug 21, 10:00 AM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | Chester, York | 45 min |
| Aug 21, 10:46 AM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | GSP | Chester, York | 3 hr |
| Aug 21, 11:41 AM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | York | 34 min |
Nearby
Flash Flood Watches in North Carolina, 2020Flash Flood Watches in Georgia, 2020Flash Flood Watches in South Carolina, 2020Every flash flood watch in 2020
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.