Alert archive / North Carolina / Flash Flood Warnings in 2020

Flash Flood Warning 80, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

November 12, 2020Gaston County, Mecklenburg County, North Carolina

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this flash flood warning at Nov 12, 2020, 7:20 PM EST for Gaston County, Mecklenburg County, North Carolina. It was in force for 7 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Nov 12, 2020, 7:20 PM EST (00:20 UTC)
Expired
Nov 13, 2020, 2:45 AM EST
In force
7 hr
Issued by
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
Area
Storm-based polygon
Damage threat
Considerable
Flood severity
None

Counties Gaston County, NC, Mecklenburg County, NC

The radar

The Greer radar (KGSP), 123 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:24 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 00:00Z, 0.3 hours before the alert went out and 129 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 00:00Z on 2020-11-13Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 32 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 00:00Z on 2020-11-13The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -40 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
32 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-23 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
593 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
47 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-40 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
39 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

531 
WGUS52 KGSP 130020
FFWGSP
NCC071-119-130745-
/O.NEW.KGSP.FF.W.0080.201113T0020Z-201113T0745Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
720 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2020

The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  East Central Gaston County in the piedmont of North Carolina...
  West Central Mecklenburg County in the piedmont of North Carolina...

* Until 245 AM EST Friday.

* At 720 PM EST, Rainfall accumulations of 3-7 inches since 
  Wednesday over the Catawba River watershed are causing significant 
  rises along the Catawba River reservoir chain tonight, including 
  at Mountain Island Lake.  Additional rainfall will not occur for 
  the duration of this flood event.  However, Duke Energy is moving 
  water through the river system in order to safely manage lake 
  levels and as a result, additional rises are forecast at Mountain 
  Island Lake.  Duke Energy is projecting Mountain Island Lake may 
  exceed 103.0 feet later tonight before cresting later Friday 
  morning.  This may cause areas of significant flooding along the 
  shoreline and especially immediately downstream of the dam along 
  the Catawba River in the Riverside Dr community.  Therefore, to 
  adequately notify residents and other persons in the vicinity of 
  the Catawba River, a Flash Flood Warning has been issued.  The 
  Flash Flood Warning will remain in effect until Mountain Island 
  Lake crests.

* This flood event is not currently expected to be as severe as the 
  event experienced in June 2019. Nevertheless, residents should 
  stay alert tonight and be prepared for levels above 103.0 feet 
  through tomorrow in case additional reservoir releases are 
  necessary.

* As of 640 PM, Mountain Island Lake is at 101.80 feet and rising 
  steadily.
  
  Action/Advisory Stage: 101.50 feet  
  Minor Flood Stage: 103.00 feet 
  Moderate Flood Stage: 104.00 feet
  
FORECAST: Duke Energy projects the pool could exceed 103.00 feet 
overnight tonight.  Additional rises are possible overnight.  
Residents are strongly encouraged to monitor lake levels and heed 
guidance from Char-Meck Emergency Management.

IMPACTS: At 103.0 feet...Significant inundation of low-lying areas 
is ongoing around Mountain Island Lake and downstream of the dam 
along/near Riverside Dr. Some outbuilding inundation may begin. 
Residents should have already completed the protection of property 
adjacent to the lake and the Catawba River downstream and be taking 
action to protect their homes. Residents downstream of the dam 
should be prepared to evacuate and follow messaging from Char-Meck 
Emergency Management.

At 104.0 feet...Moderate Flood Stage. Significant inundation of 
outbuildings is beginning around Mountain Island Lake and downstream 
of the dam along/near Riverside Dr. Residents downstream of the dam 
should be completing preparations to evacuate and heeding guidance 
from Char-Meck Emergency Management.

  HAZARD...Flash flooding due to significant reservoir releases.

  SOURCE...Emergency management, Duke Energy, and automated lake
           gauges.

  IMPACT...Life-threatening flash flooding Mountain Island Lake
           and the Catawba River downstream of Mountain Island
           Dam which may cause property damage and residential
           evacuations.

* This Flash Flood Warning is exclusively for areas along Mountain 
  Island Lake and areas immediately downstream along the Catawba 
  River including Riverside Dr, Lake Dr, Riverhaven Dr, Hart Rd, 
  Beagle Club Rd, Drywall Dr, and other low-lying areas along the 
  Catawba River between Mountain Island Lake and Lake Wylie 
  including roadways adjacent to the river in Mecklenburg and Gaston 
  counties.

* For more information on lake levels, projections, or dam releases, 
  people are encouraged to visit http://lakes.duke-energy.com or 
  call 1-800-829-5253. 

* Residents along and below Mountain Island Lake are encouraged to 
  stay aware of the latest updates from Charlotte-Mecklenburg 
  Emergency Management by signing up for Char-Meck alerts at: 
  www.charmeckalerts.org.  Residents are encouraged to heed guidance 
  from local officials and Emergency Management on any potential 
  impacts to property and any evacuation orders.  Drivers are 
  encouraged to heed any barricades and avoid all flooded areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to higher ground now. Act quickly to protect your life.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3522 8102 3528 8102 3535 8098 3536 8095
      3538 8094 3538 8092 3535 8091 3534 8091
      3534 8093 3533 8097 3529 8098 3527 8100
      3522 8100

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

JMP

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Nov 12, 6:49 PM EST, 31 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 12, 6:49 PM EST, 31 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
649 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving cold front will push east of the area tonight.
Drier air moving in from the west on Friday will control our
weather for most of the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 645 PM Thursday: Only isolated showers and patchy drizzle
remain this evening and should end overnight. However, there is a
lot of water flowing through creeks and streams into the main
rivers. Therefore, flood warnings and advisories will continue until
flood waters recede.

Deep layer drying has taken place as high pressure builds in behind
Eta. However, copious low level moisture remains in a general N to
NE flow. This will keep low clouds in place and expand them over
areas where they have cleared. Guidance suggests low clouds will be
more prevalent than dense fog, so have gone that route as well with
cloudy to mostly cloudy skies and patchy fog. The clouds and
moisture should keep lows around 15 degrees above normal. Temps will
be close to our record high minimums for Thursday. Westerly flow and
building high pressure will help scour out the low level moisture
with clearing taking place from west to east on Friday. Colder air
will be slower to infiltrate the area, so highs will be around 10
degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 PM EST Thursday: Conditions will be dry and quiet Friday
night and Saturday as sfc high pressure pushes across the OH Valley
into the Mid-Atlantic and upper ridge stays in place over the
Southeast. The synoptic pattern changes into Sunday as sfc high
pressure moves off the Mid-Atlantic coast and upper troughing pushes
eastward across the central CONUS, ushering a cold front towards the
area. Per latest guidance, expect the front to push through the area
through late morning/early afternoon on Sunday. Guidance continues
to show little in the way of precipitation with this front, thus
have kept light showers confined to mainly the north of the I-85
corridor/west of the I-77 corridor. QPF amounts of a trace to a few
hundredths at most will be possible. Temps will remain normal on
Saturday, dropping to normal behind the front on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 PM EST Thursday: Per latest guidance, a cold front will be
east of the forecast area Sunday night with drier air infiltrating
into the area with NW flow. Expect dry and quiet conditions to
prevail through the remainder of the forecast period as sfc high
pressure builds in from the west with upper troughing setting up
across the eastern CONUS and upper ridging over the western CONUS,
both amplifying through the early part of the week. Guidance
continues to suggest a reinforcing dry cold front moving through
just before midweek. Temps will remain below normal through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Isolated showers and patchy drizzle may
linger this evening with MVFR vsby restrictions. Cigs will be the
bigger problem with IFR at KCLT falling to LIFR and staying there
through morning. Elsewhere, generally MVFR cigs this evening become
IFR to LIFR overnight, with some MVFR vsby. Conditions should improve
from west to east after daybreak as drier air and westerly winds
work into the area. KCLT will see restrictions the longest but will
be VFR by early afternoon. NE wind becomes light and variable
overnight then westerly during the day Friday. KAVL the exception
with NNW wind through the period, along with low end gusts for the
afternoon.

Outlook: Dry high pressure will keep mostly VFR conditions through
Saturday. A weak cold front could bring light rain and restrictions
Sunday. Dry high pressure and VFR returns Monday.

Confidence Table...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       Med   72%     Med   70%     High  85%     High 100%
KGSP       High  89%     Med   75%     High  80%     High 100%
KAVL       High  89%     High  95%     Med   65%     High 100%
KHKY       High  94%     Low   40%     Med   75%     High 100%
KGMU       High  89%     Med   75%     High  80%     High 100%
KAND       Med   72%     High 100%     High  85%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.CLIMATE...
              MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      77 1890     35 1968     56 1929     16 1894
                            1934
   KCLT      81 1989     43 1894     61 1915     24 1894
   KGSP      81 1989     43 1968     58 1935     19 1913

RECORDS FOR 11-13

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      75 1964     32 1906     58 1929     13 1911
                1958
                1938
   KCLT      81 1931     40 1920     63 1879     21 2013
   KGSP      81 1909     40 1920     61 1929     20 1906

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...SGL
LONG TERM...SGL
AVIATION...RWH
CLIMATE...
Hazardous weather outlook, Nov 12, 4:07 PM EST, 3 hours 13 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
407 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2020

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-132115-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
407 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Nov 12, 3:13 PM EST, 4 hours 7 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
313 PM EST THU NOV 12 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MONROE                  34.99N 80.54W
11/12/2020                   UNION              NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTS MULTIPLE ROADS CLOSED AND AT
            LEAST TWO WATER RESCUES ACROSS THE COUNTY.

&&

LACORTE
Local storm report, Nov 12, 3:51 PM EST, 3 hours 29 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
351 PM EST THU NOV 12 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 3 ESE GREENWOOD         34.18N 82.11W
11/12/2020                   GREENWOOD          SC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MNGR REPORTED TWO TREES DOWN ON HUNTING RD

&&
Local storm report, Nov 12, 3:54 PM EST, 3 hours 26 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
354 PM EST THU NOV 12 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 AM     FLASH FLOOD      4 S GREENWOOD           34.14N 82.15W
11/12/2020                   GREENWOOD          SC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MNGR REPORTED ROAD CLOSURES DUE TO FLOODING
            ON STILLWELL AND SCOTCH CROSS RD.

&&

The office that day

Everything else NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 12, 8:17 PM ESTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPBurke, Caldwell12 hr
Nov 12, 8:38 PM ESTAreal Flood Warning EmergencyGSPCatawba12 hr
Nov 12, 10:33 PM ESTAreal Flood WarningGSPRowan18 hr
Nov 13, 3:03 AM ESTAreal Flood WarningGSPGaston, Mecklenburg19 hr
Nov 13, 4:50 PM ESTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPRowan6 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in North Carolina, 2020Every flash flood warning in 2020

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.