Flash Flood Warning 61, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

188 
WGUS52 KGSP 291604
FFWGSP
NCC089-175-SCC045-291830-
/O.EXT.KGSP.FF.W.0061.000000T0000Z-201029T1830Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1204 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020

The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has extended 
the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Central Henderson County in western North Carolina...
  Southeastern Transylvania County in western North Carolina...
  Northwestern Greenville County in upstate South Carolina...

* Until 230 PM EDT.

* At 1204 PM EDT, With runoff from earlier heavy rainfall continuing 
  this afternoon, many high water and flooded areas will be slow to 
  recede.  However, improving conditions and falling water levels 
  among the many smaller creeks and streams in the warned area are 
  expected.  Flooding of the larger rivers and creeks, especially 
  throughout the Upper French Broad basin, will likely linger into 
  tonight.

  HAZARD...

  SOURCE...

  IMPACT...

* Some locations that may experience flash flooding include...
  Hendersonville, Brevard, Fletcher, Flat Rock, Mountain Home, 
  Laurel Park, Rosman, Dupont State Forest, Jones Gap State Park, 
  Caesars Head State Park, Chimney Rock State Park, Valley Hill, 
  Crab Creek, Little River In Transylvania County, Tuxedo, Penrose, 
  East Flat Rock, Cedar Mountain, Cleveland and Dana.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3511 8278 3513 8284 3513 8287 3515 8292
      3517 8283 3527 8273 3526 8255 3536 8249
      3544 8251 3545 8246 3547 8242 3539 8226
      3529 8235 3522 8237 3507 8253 3511 8274

FLASH FLOOD...GAUGE INDICATED

$$

CSH

041 
WGUS72 KGSP 291709
FFSGSP

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
109 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020

SCC045-291719-
/O.CAN.KGSP.FF.W.0061.000000T0000Z-201029T1830Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Greenville SC-
109 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR NORTHWESTERN GREENVILLE 
COUNTY...

Gages showed stream levels throughout the upper Saluda River basin 
within their banks and levels were falling.

LAT...LON 3511 8278 3513 8284 3513 8287 3527 8273
      3526 8255 3536 8249 3544 8251 3545 8246
      3547 8242 3539 8226 3529 8235 3522 8237
      3519 8244

$$

NCC089-175-291830-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0061.000000T0000Z-201029T1830Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Henderson NC-Transylvania NC-
109 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM EDT THIS 
AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL HENDERSON AND SOUTHEASTERN TRANSYLVANIA 
COUNTIES...

At 109 PM EDT, With runoff from earlier heavy rainfall continuing 
this afternoon, many high water and flooded areas will be slow to 
recede.  However, improving conditions and falling water levels 
among the many smaller creeks and streams in the warned area are 
expected.  Flooding of the larger rivers and creeks, especially 
throughout the Upper French Broad basin, will likely linger into 
tonight.

HAZARD...

SOURCE...

IMPACT...Flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other
         drainage and low lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Hendersonville, Brevard, Fletcher, Flat Rock, Mountain Home, 
  Laurel Park, Rosman, Dupont State Forest, Chimney Rock State Park, 
  Valley Hill, Crab Creek, Little River In Transylvania County, 
  Tuxedo, East Flat Rock, Penrose, Dana, Cedar Mountain, Edneyville 
  and Connestee.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3511 8278 3513 8284 3513 8287 3527 8273
      3526 8255 3536 8249 3544 8251 3545 8246
      3547 8242 3539 8226 3529 8235 3522 8237
      3519 8244

FLASH FLOOD...GAUGE INDICATED

$$

CSH

226 
WGUS72 KGSP 291817
FFSGSP

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
217 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020

NCC089-175-291827-
/O.CAN.KGSP.FF.W.0061.000000T0000Z-201029T1830Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Henderson NC-Transylvania NC-
217 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR CENTRAL HENDERSON AND SOUTHEASTERN 
TRANSYLVANIA COUNTIES HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A FLOOD WARNING...

LAT...LON 3511 8278 3513 8284 3513 8287 3527 8273
      3526 8255 3536 8249 3544 8251 3545 8246
      3547 8242 3539 8226 3529 8235 3522 8237
      3519 8244

$$

CSH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
645 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall and gusty southerly winds
will continue through Thursday morning as Tropical Storm Zeta moves
through the area. Conditions rapidly improve Thursday afternoon
as Zeta departs with cool and dry weather prevailing in its wake
through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 645 AM EDT Thursday: A Tropical Storm Watch, Flash Flood
Watch, and Wind Advisory remain in effect across portions of the
area.

Minor adjustments made to temps/PoPs to coincide with latest trends
as the rest of the near term forecast remains on track. Zeta
continues to rapidly move with a forward motion of 39 mph as
satellite imagery depicts the system nearly over the Carolinas
already. Precip continues to move in across the area with minor
flooding concerns developing as noted by a few flood advisories now
in effect. In addition to rainfall, low stratus and patchy areas of
fog prevail across the area this morning with current temps in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.

Previous discussion: With plenty of moisture in place, upslope flow,
and Zeta moving closer, expect showers shift eastward through the
morning hours. Could not entirely rule out an isolated brief tornado
this morning. Otherwise, anticipate increasing chances for
thunderstorms across the southeastern portions of the FA later this
morning into early this afternoon with increasing instability. As
for winds, expect winds and wind gusts (up to 40 to 50 kts possible)
to increase this morning as the pressure gradient tightens and the
center of TS Zeta moves overhead. With saturated soils and expected
winds, downed trees and powerlines could become an issue today. With
a very warm and moist airmass in place as the FA sits well in the
warm sector, expect max temps to climb into the upper 70s/near 80
degrees.

Latest guidance continues to prog that Zeta will be a distant memory
for the Carolinas this afternoon as the remnants lift off to the
northeast, while upstream, southern stream upper troughing moves
into the TN Valley and a cold front approaches the area. Could not
rule out lingering showers on the back of Zeta across the area,
especially the mountains in NW flow, but overall expect the
widespread nature of the activity to dissipate later this afternoon.
Higher winds will subside as the gradient begins to relax, but
lingering low end gusts will persist into tonight. Min temps will
remain just above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 am Thursday: Cooler and much drier air will be advecting
into the forecast area at the start of the period in the wake of
departing frontal system. Gusty northwest winds acting on lingering
low level moisture from the TN Valley into the crest of the
Appalachians could result in development of a few showers along the
TN border mainly Fri morning, warranting a small pop in those areas.
Otherwise, the big story for the short term will be the potential
for frost/freeze conditions Fri night/Sat morning, mainly across the
mountains and northern Piedmont zones. Current indications are that
widespread frost, and at least locally freezing temperatures can be
expected across the mtns Sat morning, with at least patchy frost in
the Piedmont/foothills north of I-85. As such, a Freeze Watch may
need to be entertained for portions of the mountains this afternoon.
Despite strong insolation Saturday, max temps are expected to
average around 10 degrees below climo.

Otherwise, temps will moderate briefly late in the period...albeit
remaining a bit below climo, as heights rise downstream of the next
round of central Conus height falls. Frontal zone associated with
these height falls is expected to approach the forecast area quickly
late Sat night/early Sunday. A consensus of the latest deterministic
model guidance suggests moisture return will be sufficient to maybe
ring our some -RA over the area Sunday morning, and a small pops has
been introduced to account for this.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 AM Wednesday: Cold frontal passage will be complete
by the early overnight hours Monday morning over the eastern
counties and CAA will be well underway.  Winds may be brisk over
the mountains early Monday morning as a tight pressure gradient
develops between the 1037mb high over the central Plains and the
surface trough offshore.  CAA will supplant traditional radiational
cooling and, given the slightly warmer temperatures for Saturday
morning, result in the first widespread freeze of the season for the
mountains, including over extreme northeast Georgia.  These winds
should work to limit widespread frost development Monday morning,
but temps are still expected to bottom out in the mid-30s across
the North Carolina Piedmont and upper 30s across the Upstate,
or about 6-8 degrees below normal regionwide.

Despite clear skies, anomalously low thicknesses associated with
the potent longwave trough responsible for the cold front (guidance
shows the 540dm isopleth dipping as far south as northern Virginia)
will support the ongoing CAA to produce the coldest highs of the
season thus far.  Temperatures will struggle to reach 40 across the
higher elevations (the very highest peaks may not break freezing),
with most of the NC Piedmont and the northern Upstate struggling
to reach 55.  These temperatures are 12-15 degrees below normal
or equivalent to normal highs in mid-December.  Fortunately these
low maxes are still 6-10 degrees above record values.

Winds will weaken considerably by Monday night and radiational
cooling should dominate the area Tuesday morning as 1030mb high
pressure settles into the Deep South.  These conditions should
support slightly colder temps compared to Monday in the mountains
for a deeper freeze and perhaps the first light freeze of the
season for nearly all of the North Carolina Piedmont and Foothills
as well as portions of the Upstate, as temps dip into the lower 30s.

As we head towards the middle of the work week we are going to
see a nice recovery take shape as strong high pressure slides
offshore in response to height rises over the eastern CONUS.
Subtropical ridging once again returns to the Deep South which
will support continued dry but milder conditions Tuesday through
the end of the work week.  Expect non-mountain highs to rebound to
around 60 for Tuesday and return to near-normal values by Wednesday.
Frost concerns should be minimal by Thursday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: With Hurricane Zeta moving inland, progged to
be TS Zeta as it moves over the FA later this morning, expect
unsettled weather and flight restrictions through later today as
showers and thunderstorms move through the area. Currently a mixture
of MVFR/IFR prevails at the TAF sites due mainly to low cigs, though
areas of heavy rainfall and patchy fog are allowing for reduced
visibilities at times. Given the rapid storm track, latest CAMs
suggest once widespread precip moves in later this morning it will
begin to dissipate by early this afternoon, with gradual improving
conditions to VFR by this evening. Winds will remain SSW through
this afternoon with gusts of 30 to 40 kt possible, with intermittent
higher gusts possible. Wind shear will continue to be a factor for a
few hours beginning around daybreak as the storm system moves.
Higher gusts will dissipate by this afternoon, with a gradual
downward trend in gusts overall through tonight.

Outlook: Expect VFR.

Confidence Table...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-06Z
KCLT       High 100%     High  85%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High  82%     High  90%     High  97%     High 100%
KAVL       High  90%     High  92%     High 100%     High  97%
KHKY       High  92%     High  92%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High  85%     High  92%     High  95%     High 100%
KAND       Med   70%     High  85%     High  92%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Flash Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for GAZ010-017-
     018.
     Tropical Storm Warning for GAZ010-017-018-026-028.
     Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for GAZ029.
NC...Flash Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ033-
     048>053-058-059-062>065-501>507-509.
     Tropical Storm Warning for NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-
     062>065-068>072-501>510.
     Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NCZ082.
SC...Flash Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for SCZ001>003.
     Tropical Storm Warning for SCZ001>010.
     Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for SCZ011>014-019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JMP
NEAR TERM...SGL
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JMP
AVIATION...SGL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
520 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020

GAZ026-028-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-508-510-SCZ004>010-300930-
Franklin-Hart-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-
Cherokee-York-Anderson-
520 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tropical Storm Warning.

A threat for localized flash flooding will exist for much of the
area through today as the remnants of tropical cyclone Zeta rapidly
move across the Southeast. There is also a small threat of isolated
tornadoes across Piedmont. Monitor the latest forecast for updates
on this system.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

GAZ010-017-018-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>507-509-SCZ001>003-
300930-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-
Buncombe-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-
Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
520 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, western
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.
   Tropical Storm Warning.

There is a small threat of isolated tornadoes across foothill areas
as the remnants of Zeta move through during the day. Monitor the
latest forecast for updates on this system.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

GAZ029-NCZ082-SCZ011>014-019-300930-
Elbert-Union NC-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
520 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

A threat for localized flash flooding will exist for much of the
area through today as the remnants of tropical cyclone Zeta rapidly
move across the Southeast. There is also a small threat of isolated
tornadoes. Monitor the latest forecast for updates on this system.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

12