Flash Flood Warning 36, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

209 
WGUS72 KGSP 190846
FFSGSP

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
446 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2020

NCC023-035-191030-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0036.000000T0000Z-200619T1030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Catawba NC-Burke NC-
446 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2020

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 AM EDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN CATAWBA AND SOUTHEASTERN BURKE COUNTIES...

At 439 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain across part of the warned area. Up to three inches of rain have 
already fallen since midnight. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected 
to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, 
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other drainage 
         and low lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Longview, Hildebran, South Mountains State Park, Mountain View,
Pleasant Grove, Cooksville, Propst, Hickory and Icard.

At 430 AM, the stream gage along Jacob Fork at Ramsey had reached a 
level of 12.8 feet and was still rising. Above 6.5 feet, Jacob Fork 
should be above bankfull at Rhoney Road. Flooding should be expected 
farther downstream into Catawba County along Jacob Fork River Road.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

In hilly terrain, there are many low-water crossings which can be 
dangerous in heavy rain. Low-water crossings can be submerged by 
flood waters quickly and without warning. Never attempt to travel 
across flooded crossings. Find an alternate route. It takes only a 
few inches of swiftly flowing water to carry vehicles away.

When it is safe to do so, please report flood waters or landslides
flowing over roads or threatening property to the National Weather
Service by calling toll free, 1, 800, 2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, by posting on
our Facebook page, or via Twitter using hashtag NWSGSP. Your message
should describe the event and the specific location where it
occurred, including roadways, nearby cross streets, stream names and
other landmarks.

&&

LAT...LON 3572 8131 3562 8135 3557 8149 3557 8153
      3556 8158 3557 8158 3557 8160 3556 8166
      3558 8169 3563 8168 3568 8157 3573 8140
      3573 8133

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

MOORE

991 
WGUS72 KGSP 190948
FFSGSP

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
548 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2020

NCC023-035-191030-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0036.000000T0000Z-200619T1030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Catawba NC-Burke NC-
548 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2020

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 AM EDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN CATAWBA AND SOUTHEASTERN BURKE COUNTIES...

At 544 AM EDT, the rain had moved to the east of the warned area, 
but water levels were still running high on streams and creeks. Up 
to three inches of rain have already fallen. Flash flooding is 
ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by heavy rain.

SOURCE...Automated gauges.

IMPACT...Flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, 
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other drainage 
         and low lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Longview, Hildebran, South Mountains State Park, Mountain View,
Pleasant Grove, Cooksville, Propst, Hickory and Icard.

The stream gage on the Jacob Fork at Ramsey was at 11.5 feet and 
falling. However, high water was still expected downstream in 
Catawba County along Jacob Fork River Road near Cooksville. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

Numerous roads, parking lots and bridges will be threatened by heavy
rain and rapidly rising streams and creeks. Please pay close
attention to road signs indicating a flood-prone area. Obey all
barricades, even if water is not currently over the road. Barricades
are in place for your protection and indicate areas where flooding
can occur rapidly and without warning.

When it is safe to do so, please report flood waters or landslides
flowing over roads or threatening property to the National Weather
Service by calling toll free, 1, 800, 2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, by posting on
our Facebook page, or via Twitter using hashtag NWSGSP. Your message
should describe the event and the specific location where it
occurred, including roadways, nearby cross streets, stream names and
other landmarks.

&&

LAT...LON 3572 8131 3562 8135 3557 8149 3557 8153
      3556 8158 3557 8158 3557 8160 3556 8166
      3558 8169 3563 8168 3568 8157 3573 8140
      3573 8133

FLASH FLOOD...GAUGE INDICATED

$$

MOORE

038 
WGUS72 KGSP 191025
FFSGSP

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
625 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2020

NCC023-035-191033-
/O.EXP.KGSP.FF.W.0036.000000T0000Z-200619T1030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Catawba NC-Burke NC-
625 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2020

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN CATAWBA AND SOUTHEASTERN
BURKE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 630 AM EDT...

The heavy rain has ended and flood waters are receding. Streams and 
creeks, especially the Jacob Fork River and its tributaries, will 
continue to run high through the early morning. Please continue to 
heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3572 8131 3562 8135 3557 8149 3557 8153
      3556 8158 3557 8158 3557 8160 3556 8166
      3558 8169 3563 8168 3568 8157 3573 8140
      3573 8133

$$

MOORE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
319 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A cutoff upper level low pressure system will become weaker as it
lingers over the Eastern States to start the weekend. The system
will move offshore and dissipate by Sunday. Expect a warming trend
through the weekend. An approaching front will keep the weather
unsettled through the first half of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Fri: An upper low continues to spin over the middle
Ohio Valley. Weak vort maxes are embedded in the flow around it,
and given the few hundred J/kg of MLCAPE still depicted on RAP
profiles across the region, pockets of showers/storms continue
across the foothills from NC to MD. HRRR did a pretty good job
of depicting the blossoming of such activity across our NC zones
around midnight, but it looks like it has grown a little stronger
than the model suggested it would by this time. Relatively weak
unidirectional flow will allow slow-moving and training cells to
continue along an axis from Caesars Head to near Taylorsville;
rainfall rates have been low enough to preclude any really
high totals so far, but we will continue to monitor accums. The
instability likely will eventually be exhausted along this axis,
but it wouldn't be surprising if some isolated activity persisted
elsewhere in the CWA through the morning lull.

The upper low effectively stays stationary thru peak heating
today, but 500mb progs and water vapor imagery trends suggest
the troughiness now extending from the low toward the central
Gulf Coast will pivot east by this afternoon. This will be
timed to enhance diurnal convective initiation. CAMs generally
agree on activity firing up over the Blue Ridge Escarpment and
adjacent mountains by early afternoon, propagating southeast into
the Piedmont through early evening, on continued weak westerly
unidirectional flow. A high chance to likely PoP is forecast for
most areas along/downstream of the Blue Ridge. Profiles remain
fairly moist and exhibit fairly low DCAPE for the season, as well
as weak theta-E lapse rates. Given weak shear, however, can't
absolutely rule out a severe microburst. More concerned about
continued slow storm motion and possibly training, and their
contributions to excessive rain threat. Max temps look to be a
category or so below normal. Lapse rates will remain favorable
tonight, though more of the area is likely to have been worked
over by late evening, and furthermore we will be increasingly
in the wake of the trough axis; convection is thus fcst to wane,
especially in our western half. Mins will be near normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 122 AM EDT Friday: The weekend still looks like it will be a
slow transition between the pesky upper low which should finally
leave our lives on Saturday, and a brief period of upper ridging
on Sunday. The upper ridge should slip east of the fcst area on
Monday. The net result is that summer will return over the weekend,
with temperatures back above normal, and typical diurnally-driven
showers and thunderstorms. Shear will be minimal and buoyancy will
be modest as well, probably no better than 2000 J/kg of sfc-based
CAPE perhaps on Sunday afternoon, so the chances for pulse-severe
storms looks low right now. Rather standard fare for mid-June.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 320 AM EDT Friday: The middle part next week still looks
fairly active. The latest guidance out in the medium range shows the
upper ridge moving off the East Coast on Monday night and Tuesday,
bringing back the SW flow aloft as an upper trof approaches from
the Plains. The slow eastward progression of the upper trof will
keep a sfc front to our west on Tuesday and Wednesday, providing
a favorable environment for scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms through the middle of the week. An increase in
buoyancy and the approach of the front may increase our chances
for severe storms mainly on Tuesday afternoon/evening, and again
perhaps on Wednesday as the sfc boundary moves across the area
late in the day. There remains some uncertainty about the front
clearing the fcst area on Thursday, with the new ECMWF hanging it
up across north GA and the Carolinas. If that scenario happens,
precip chances would not go away as suggested by the GFS. Either
way, above normal temps Tuesday and Wednesday are expected to get
knocked a few degrees down to normal for the end of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere: The period will begin VFR except where
precip is occurring. Sufficient elevated instability will linger
through the early morning hours, combined with weak forcing within
the cyclonic flow around upper low, to expect SCT SHRA and perhaps
stray TSRA mainly over WNC, warranting a TEMPO precip mention at
KCLT and KHKY. Sfc conditions will be moist throughout the area and
some areas of IFR stratus are likely near daybreak. Mtn valley fog
is also expected, warranting IFR TEMPO at KAVL. The daytime today
should be seasonably unstable, with a shortwave rounding the upper
low timed to enhance convective coverage. Activity should first fire
along the Blue Ridge Escarpment and propagate SE into the Piedmont
thru early evening. Not much confidence on restrictions tonight;
expanse thereof likely will be impacted by where the heavy SHRA/TSRA
occur this aftn, and have not hit very hard at KCLT as a result.

Outlook: Scattered diurnal thunderstorm coverage will continue
Saturday through Monday, with an uptick possible on Tuesday as a
frontal zone arrives from the west. Flight restrictions will be
possible each day in any afternoon/evening thunderstorms, and also
in low clouds and fog around daybreak each morning.

Confidence Table...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       High  97%     High  92%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       Med   78%     High  95%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       Med   66%     High  94%     High 100%     High  95%
KHKY       Low   52%     High  86%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High  83%     High  99%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High  98%     High  97%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...08
NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...CAC
AVIATION...08

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
533 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2020

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-192145-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
533 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, Piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina, and Upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop through the
evening hours before diminishing overnight. Cloud to ground
lightning and locally heavy rainfall will be the primary threats
with any thunderstorms. A few storms could produce gusty winds. Any
heavier rain showers and storms could produce minor, isolated
flooding of low-lying and poor drainage areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

HG