Storm Warning 1, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

956 
WHUS73 KGRR 150258
MWWGRR

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
958 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2020

LMZ844>849-151100-
/O.CON.KGRR.GL.W.0032.000000T0000Z-201115T0900Z/
/O.CON.KGRR.SR.W.0001.201115T0900Z-201116T0000Z/
St Joseph to South Haven MI-South Haven to Holland MI-
Holland to Grand Haven MI-Grand Haven to Whitehall MI-
Whitehall to Pentwater MI-Pentwater to Manistee MI-
958 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY...
...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, south winds around 25 knots with 
  gusts up to 35 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet. For the Storm 
  Warning, southwest winds 25 to 35 knots with gusts up to 50 
  knots and waves 10 to 15 feet expected.

* WHERE...St Joseph to Manistee.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, until 4 AM EST Sunday. For the 
  Storm Warning, from 4 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous waves which
  could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

126 
WHUS73 KGRR 150901
MWWGRR

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
401 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

LMZ844>849-151800-
/O.EXP.KGRR.GL.W.0032.000000T0000Z-201115T0900Z/
/O.CON.KGRR.SR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-201116T0000Z/
St Joseph to South Haven MI-South Haven to Holland MI-
Holland to Grand Haven MI-Grand Haven to Whitehall MI-
Whitehall to Pentwater MI-Pentwater to Manistee MI-
401 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...GALE WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 30 to 40 knots with gusts up to 50 knots
  and waves 10 to 15 feet.

* WHERE...St Joseph to Manistee.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous waves which 
  could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

629 
WHUS73 KGRR 151712
MWWGRR

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1212 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

LMZ844>849-160000-
/O.CON.KGRR.SR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-201116T0000Z/
St Joseph to South Haven MI-South Haven to Holland MI-
Holland to Grand Haven MI-Grand Haven to Whitehall MI-
Whitehall to Pentwater MI-Pentwater to Manistee MI-
1212 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds of 30 to 40 knots with gusts to around 50
  knots and waves 12 to 16 feet.

* WHERE...St Joseph to Manistee.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous waves which 
  could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A deep, strong fall storm is moving through
  the Great Lakes today. Strong winds sustained at 30 to 40 knots
  will gust to 40 to 50 knots routinely this afternoon and 
  evening. Waves look to peak around 600pm this evening up and 
  down the lakeshore. The highest waves will likely occur between 
  South Haven and Muskegon. Winds will gradually settle down 
  overnight and on Monday.
  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

DUKE

314 
WHUS73 KGRR 152048
MWWGRR

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
348 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

LMZ844>849-160300-
/O.EXT.KGRR.SR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-201116T0300Z/
St Joseph to South Haven MI-South Haven to Holland MI-
Holland to Grand Haven MI-Grand Haven to Whitehall MI-
Whitehall to Pentwater MI-Pentwater to Manistee MI-
348 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds of 30 to 40 knots with gusts to around 50
  knots and waves 12 to 16 feet into this evening. A Gale Warning
  will be needed tonight.

* WHERE...St Joseph to Manistee.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous waves which 
  could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A deep, strong fall storm is moving through
  the Great Lakes this evening. Strong winds sustained at 30 to 40
  knots will gust to 40 to 50 knots routinely this afternoon and
  evening. Waves will peak around 600pm this evening up and down 
  the lakeshore. The highest waves will likely occur between South
  Haven and Muskegon. Winds will gradually settle down overnight 
  and on Monday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

DUKE

154 
WHUS73 KGRR 160254
MWWGRR

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
954 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

LMZ844>849-160900-
/O.CAN.KGRR.SR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-201116T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KGRR.GL.W.0033.201116T0254Z-201116T0900Z/
St Joseph to South Haven MI-South Haven to Holland MI-
Holland to Grand Haven MI-Grand Haven to Whitehall MI-
Whitehall to Pentwater MI-Pentwater to Manistee MI-
954 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY...
...STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...West gales to 40 knots and waves 8 to 13 feet.

* WHERE...St Joseph to Manistee.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1253 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2020

LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 306 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2020

- Threat for wind impacts on the increase especially Sunday

- Risk for local winter impacts Sunday Eve/Night

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1232 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2020

Only change to the headlines this morning was to upgrade the
Lakeshore Flood Watch to a Lakeshore Flood Warning. Despite the
lake levels being down a bit, we will have a significant push of
water towards the shore with southwest to west winds gusting to
between 50-60 mph much of the day. The lakeshore flood threat
exists for sure, but the bigger threat is likely the beach and
dune erosion that is going to take place. Highest waves on Sunday
will likely occur from midday into the afternoon hours off of
Muskegon, Ottawa and Allegan Counties. Waves will likely reach to
around the 15 foot mark give or take a couple of feet.

Otherwise, have left the Gale Warning and not upgraded to a Storm
Warning but it will be close. We have also left the wind headlines
alone on land with the Warning in the lakeshore counties and an
advisory inland. The inland counties could be close in terms of a
warning, but the 12z models backed off just a bit in terms of the
wind in the profile as opposed to the 06z models. If the low
deepened a bit quicker across Wisconsin and the U.P. we could be
in a bit more trouble. The most concerning model is the HiResARW
which shows a 974mb low over Northeast Lake Superior at 18z on
Sunday. This is more of an outlier though.

So, bottom line is the current headlines look good. We will be
taking a harder look at Gale vs Storm on the lake and whether the
inland area need a High Wind Warning through the course of the
afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today through next Friday)
Issued at 306 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2020

- Threat for wind impacts on the increase especially Sunday

Guidance continues to support a strong fall storm tracking
through the region Tonight through Sunday. There appears to be
two windows for strong/damaging winds. The first will be
associated with the surface cold front that tracks eastward
through the region roughly 11z to 14z Sunday. A line of showers
and possible storms could mix down the stronger winds not too far
off the ground around that time. The instability is shown to be
less than previous runs so we may not see much in the way of
thunderstorm activity...but this is a setup where showers could
lead to very strong winds. The second peak of winds occurs later
Sunday morning and through the afternoon. Deeper mixing occurs in
the cold air advection on the backside of the departing front. At
the same time the surface pressure gradient tightens up as the low
deepens to sub 980 mb across the UP and Southern Ontario leading
to an increased risk for wind impacts. Many of the models show the
potential for wind gusts in the 40 knot range during this time
with some showing gusts topping 50 knots on the lakeshore. For
this reason...we will go a wind advisory inland and warning for
the lakeshore. We will need to monitor the risk for greater than
50 knot winds inland Sunday Afternoon. Based on the Nam and GFS in
Bufkit...places like Lansing and Grand Rapids are seeing the
mixing height just reaching into the 50 knot winds. If confidence
on this happening increases...we may need to upgrade the inland
wind advisory to a high wind warning.

- Risk for local winter impacts Sunday Eve/Night

Across northern parts of the CWA for places like Evart...Reed City
and Baldwin...the DGZ remains moist as the temperatures fall
Sunday afternoon and evening. There is some decent lift noted
around the DGZ as well. So...it appears we could see at least some
light accumulations of snow. As temperatures fall below
freezing...some icy spots could develop...mainly later Sunday
afternoon into the evening.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1253 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2020

Winds will impact TAF sites later today into Sunday alongside
precipitation and low clouds with the passage of a storm system.
Low level wind shear looks possible, while surface gusts reach
near and over 25 knots starting tonight.

MVFR clouds will begin to impact sites late tonight with some IFR
possible as well. VCTS is not present in the TAF forecast for
this evening, however with some instability present we cannot rule
out a storm or two. The greater chance for storms will arrive more
into Sunday morning as the front moves through.

More into Sunday strong winds will persist out of the west with
frequent gusts up to 35 knots with some gusts up to 45 knots
possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 306 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2020

Overall the thinking has not changed much on the risk for impacts
from this powerful fall storm. A prolonged period of gales is
expected from tonight into Sunday night. There is a risk for storm
force winds Sunday...given some of the models show the mixing
height reaching into the 50 knot winds. We are not confident
enough to go with a Storm Warning at this time so we will maintain
the Gale Warning instead. Typically Lakeshore Flood
Warnings/Advisories are not issued beyond 24 hours of the impact
time...so we will maintain the Lakeshore Flood Watch. Based on
the forecasted wave heights and abnormally high water levels...a
risk for significant beach and dune erosion looks likely to happen
on Sunday.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...High Wind Warning from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday for MIZ037-043-
     050-056-064-071.

     Lakeshore Flood Warning from 1 AM Sunday to 1 AM EST Monday for
     MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.

     Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday for MIZ038>040-
     044>046-051-052-057>059-065>067-072>074.

LM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LMZ844>849.

     Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Monday for
     LMZ844>849.

&&

UPDATE...Duke
SYNOPSIS...MJS
DISCUSSION...MJS
AVIATION...Thielke
MARINE...MJS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
224 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2020

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-150900-
Mason-Lake-Osceola-Clare-Oceana-Newaygo-Mecosta-Isabella-Muskegon-
Montcalm-Gratiot-Ottawa-Kent-Ionia-Clinton-Allegan-Barry-Eaton-
Ingham-Van Buren-Kalamazoo-Calhoun-Jackson-
224 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest Lower
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Stronger winds developing tonight will lead to the potential for
scattered power outages. Winds tonight will be associated with a
deep low pressure system moving through the area and perhaps a few
isolated thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Scattered to possibly numerous power outages are forecasted for
Sunday into Sunday evening. Frequent gusts in the 45 to 55 mph range
are likely with some gusts near 60 mph possible especially on the
lakeshore. The strong winds will lead to large battering waves which
will cause considerable beach and dune erosion along with some
lakeshore flooding.

A few slick spots are possible on the roadways to the north of a
Baldwin to Big Rapids to Mt Pleasant line later Sunday afternoon
into the evening due to snow and freezing temperatures.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

LMZ844>849-150900-
St Joseph to South Haven MI-South Haven to Holland MI-
Holland to Grand Haven MI-Grand Haven to Whitehall MI-
Whitehall to Pentwater MI-Pentwater to Manistee MI-
224 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest Lower
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Deteriorating conditions on Lake Michigan are expected from this
afternoon through tonight. Winds will reach Gale Force tonight out
of the south. A few thunderstorms tonight could lead to cloud to
water lightning strikes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Gale force winds will increase to storm force on Sunday with gusts
of 50 to 60 mph expected. Winds of this magnitude will push wave
heights into the 12 to 16 foot range.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

MJS/DUKE