Small Craft Advisory 70, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
330 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2020

LATEST UPDATE...
Synopsis/Discussion/Marine

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2020

-Cool through the weekend; nighttime frost threat

-Temps rebound next week, still dry

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today through next Wednesday)
Issued at 330 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2020

-- Cool through the weekend; nighttime frost threat --

Cold Canadian sfc high building in from the northwest brings
chilly fall-like conditions into the region through the weekend
with a risk of frost at night. Friday night will be the coldest
night when the center of the sfc high will be overhead.

Clear to partly cloudy skies and dry conditions will prevail the
next several days and we've probably seen the last of the smoke
aloft issue for a while per HRRR experimental guidance. Visible
satellite imagery from yesterday confirms mostly smoke free skies
under the approaching sfc high as the smoke guidance has been
suggesting.

Frost threat begins tonight, mainly across the nrn zones where
sfc winds have the best chance of calming out. Some concern
exists however regarding extent/coverage of strato-cumulus pouring
swwd off Lake Huron and the HREF low cloud guidance does hint at
that potential.

Will issue a Frost Advisory for the nrn two rows of the GRR CWFA
where confidence is highest, although it's possible some patchy
frost will develop south of that too if the winds drop off enough
and skies are clear.

Frost threat increases for Friday night and more of the area will
be impacted, so a Frost Advisory may be needed for the entire
area. Also a risk of freezing temps may develop across Osceola
and Clare Counties. There will still be a frost threat on
Saturday night as the sfc ridge holds, but we could have some mid
and high level cloudiness coming in by that time.

-- Temps rebound next week, still dry --

Guidance continues to indicate a warm up next week as upper trough
lifts out and the sfc high pulls away. Still no signs of any
substantial rainfall though as a dry air mass still prevails.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 143 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2020

The cloud deck at 4000-6000 ft currently over srn Lwr MI early
this morning will move south and out of the area by 14Z or so.
There is also a threat of some MVFR cigs of 1500-2500 impacting
JXN/BTL/AZO for a brief time overnight. Otherwise skies clearing
out today and remaining clear tonight. Sfc winds will be northeast
around 10 kts, although turning northerly at MKG this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2020

As the northeast flow in the Lk Mi nearshore turns northerly late
today into the evening, a small craft advisory and beach hazards
statement may be needed south of Holland. Will be looking at the
potential some more this morning and issue a bit later if
confidence increases.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Friday for MIZ037>040-
     043>046.

LM...None.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Meade
DISCUSSION...Meade
AVIATION...Meade
MARINE...Meade

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