River Flood Warning 29, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
727 AM EDT Mon May 18 2020

LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 324 AM EDT Mon May 18 2020

- Heavy rain slowly shifts east today

- Much-needed drying out period after Tuesday

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today through next Sunday)
Issued at 324 AM EDT Mon May 18 2020

- Heavy rain slowly shifts east today

Areal flood warnings now in effect for entire forecast area as a
few more hours of moderate to heavy rain expected with a slow
eastward shift today in the axis of heavier amounts as the cut
off low meanders from northern Illinois into Indiana today. The
rain will begin to taper off tonight and Monday as a rex block
develops and forces the low southward on Tuesday, with dry
easterly flow eroding the northern edge of the precip shield.

Despite the widespread rain amounts of 2 to 3.5 inches across the
western zones today, we have been lucky that the rain rates were
not intense enough to cause flash flooding due to the lack of
deep convection. Even so, some roads and areas along creeks and
streams will be inundated by the long period of moderate to heavy
rain rates. The flood warnings are in effect until around 3 pm.

- Much-needed drying out period after Tuesday

The rex block weakens later in the week but dry air entrainment
into the remnant low prevents any more than light showers
returning on Thursday or Friday as it moves back north. With no
significant QPF expected, water levels should be receding by the
end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 728 AM EDT Mon May 18 2020

IFR conditions will prevail into the afternoon as bands of rain
continue to move through Lower Michigan. East winds will continue
around 10 to 15 knots with gusts over 20 knots through the
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 324 AM EDT Mon May 18 2020

No changes to the Gale Warning. A Small Craft Advisory is now in
effect until 8 AM Tuesday from Grand Haven to Pentwater. Offshore
winds will cause waves to be higher away from the coast.

Lakeshore flooding is expected to continue today as lake water
levels remain elevated. Erosion will be tempered by offshore winds
resulting in wave heights mostly below 4 feet.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1224 PM EDT Sat May 16 2020

Widespread moderate to heavy rain has moved into West Michigan, and
will stick around for the next 24 hours or so. We are expecting a
widespread 1-3" rain event for virtually all river basins, with the
potential for some localized totals possibly approaching 4" by the
time all is said and done late Monday. With many of our rivers
already high following the two rounds of heavy rain several days
ago, there is not much space to handle this amount of additional
water without pushing at least a few of our rivers above flood
levels.

The Grand River and Muskegon River basins appear to generally be the
most at-risk, but all of our rivers will be rising in a major way
over the next several days and virtually all rivers are at risk for
flooding, depending on where the heaviest rain bands develop tonight
and tomorrow. So far, flooding is most likely to happen on the Grand
River at Comstock Park and Robinson Township, as well as the Portage
River near Vicksburg (southeast of Kalamazoo), the Thornapple River
near Hastings, and Sycamore Creek at Holt (south side of Lansing).
Right now forecasts show these locations going to "minor" flood
stage, but if the heavy rain shifts around a bit overnight, some of
these locations could be pushed into higher levels of flooding.

The other aspect of the heavy rain will be the likelihood of general
flooding of roads, poor drainage areas, and low spots. With the soil
as saturated as it is right now, it's no surprise that several
additional inches of rain will cause significant headaches. Drivers
should slow down and be extra careful tonight, as heavy rain at
night makes it very difficult to see ponded water. In addition,
anyone living or recreating near rivers over the next few days
should prepare for significant rises in water level, secure property
in yards and along riverbanks, and monitor river forecasts closely.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Lakeshore Flood Warning until 10 AM EDT Tuesday for MIZ056-064-
     071.

     Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT Tuesday for MIZ037-043-
     050.

LM...Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for LMZ849.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for LMZ847-848.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Ostuno
DISCUSSION...Ostuno
AVIATION...Ostuno
MARINE...Ostuno

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
404 AM EDT Mon May 18 2020

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-190815-
Mason-Lake-Osceola-Clare-Oceana-Newaygo-Mecosta-Isabella-Muskegon-
Montcalm-Gratiot-Ottawa-Kent-Ionia-Clinton-Allegan-Barry-Eaton-
Ingham-Van Buren-Kalamazoo-Calhoun-Jackson-
404 AM EDT Mon May 18 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest Lower
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Flooding of creeks, streams and some rivers will continue into
tonight. Some flooding of roads, especially low water crossings,
will continue tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Flooding along some rivers will continue this week with water
levels slowly receding by then end of the week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

LMZ844>849-190815-
St Joseph to South Haven MI-South Haven to Holland MI-
Holland to Grand Haven MI-Grand Haven to Whitehall MI-
Whitehall to Pentwater MI-Pentwater to Manistee MI-
404 AM EDT Mon May 18 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest Lower
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Conditions will be hazardous to small craft with east winds
gusting over 30 knots.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Winds and waves will be hazardous to small craft into Tuesday
morning.

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