Special Weather Statement, NWS Green Bay, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
633 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2020

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Sunday
Issued at 350 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2020

All eyes are on the ongoing/additional severe weather this
afternoon/evening. 850mb boundary/front was draped across central
and east-central WI late this morning. This along with some weak
WAA, moisture convergence and steep mid-level lapse rates aided
in some shower/storm develop over Lake Michigan. Still tough to
find the surface warm front as winds/dewpoints fairly uniform
across the area, but it appears it is slowly lifting northward
from Door County toward Wood County as of 3pm. Showers and storms
have developed across central WI and pushed northeast across the
area during the early afternoon hours. Most of this activity is
doing a very good job of keeping instability down (MUCAPEs
struggling to get to 500 J/kg and low level lapse rates under 5.0
C/km). But a few of the storms north of the boundary have tapped
into the mid level instability and are producing some large hail.

For this afternoon and evening...chances of severe weather will
diminish across areas of central and east central WI late this
afternoon as the boundary lifts north and the clouds/rain have
kept a damper on instability. Chances for severe weather will
continue farther north as the front lifts toward the MI border and
instability advects north aided by a strengthening southwesterly
low level jet. Upper support also increasing as the upper trough
approaches. Hail appears to be the greatest severe threat along
and north of the boundary. A conditional wind and tornado threat
still exists near the boundary with impressive bulk shear over 50
knots and favorable hodographs for supercells. Question will be
if the better instability can catch up to the front. If things
come together, surface based convection would be possible and
bring a higher wind/tornado threat. Severe weather threat will
end/exit the area by around 11 pm, as instability wanes and areas
of storms head into the U.P. and Lake Michigan. The boundary will
remain situated across the area through the night, so can't rule
out some additional showers or maybe a storm, mainly north, but
coverage should be pretty limited. Quite a bit of dense fog was
noted upstream this morning behind the boundary and where winds
decoupled, but think winds will stay up for much of the
evening/night and there will be clouds around, so that will limit
the fog potential. However, if/where winds die off and clouds
partially clear, some fog development would be possible, with the
highest chance being across north central WI.

For Sunday...the boundary will sink southeast across the area
through the day with a shortwave trough digging into the western
Great Lakes. Best chances for showers will be along and ahead of
the front, but some post-frontal showers will be possible,
especially in the afternoon across central and northern WI as the
colder air arrives aloft. West to southwest winds will be on the
breezy side with gusts up to around 25 mph. Highs will top out in
the 60s near midday or early afternoon, the drop later in the day.

.LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Saturday
Issued at 350 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2020

A significant pattern change will occur across the western Great
Lakes during the extended forecast period. An amplified upper
pattern will develop, with ridging over the western U.S. and
troughing across the eastern half of the country. This will
result in a significant cool down, especially over the latter
half of next week. There will also be periodic chances of
showers, though precipitation amounts should be fairly light.
It may get cold enough Thursday night into Friday morning for
some snow flakes north. High pressure should bring a mainly dry
period Friday night into Saturday.
&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 633 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2020

Showers and thunderstorms will impact mainly RHI this evening,
before steadily diminishing overnight. Ceilings will generally
remain in the VFR to MVFR range across each of the TAF sites, the
lowest at MTW and across central WI. This will be ahead of a low
pressure system and associated cold front. LLWS will increase
ahead of the cold front into the early overnight hours before
steadily diminishing from west to east early Sunday morning.
Upper-level troughing will dig across all of WI Sunday, allowing
for some instability showers to develop by Sunday afternoon. This
could bring an intermittent MVFR ceiling, mainly toward the
afternoon.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday morning for WIZ022-040-
050.
&&

SHORT TERM.....Bersch
LONG TERM......Kieckbusch
AVIATION.......Cooley

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
324 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2020

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-272030-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
324 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon into tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon
and evening through 11 PM, along and north of Highway 29.
Damaging winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes are possible.

Strong currents are likely to lead to hazardous swimming conditions
at Lake Michigan beaches this afternoon through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Saturday

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed this afternoon and evening.
Spotters are requested to report hail over a half inch in diameter
or wind damage to the National Weather Service in Green Bay.

LMZ521-522-541>543-272030-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
324 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Gusty south winds and large waves will result in hazardous
conditions to small craft on Green Bay and Lake Michigan through
tonight.

Thunderstorms with large hail or strong winds will pose a hazard
to mariners late this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Saturday

Gusty winds or high waves will continue on Lake Michigan Sunday,
especially north of Sturgeon Bay, resulting in hazardous
conditions for small craft. The gusty winds and high waves will
diminish Sunday afternoon.

Bersch

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
449 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2020

WIZ013-021-073-262230-
Southern Marinette County WI-Northern Oconto County WI-
Northern Marinette County WI-
449 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2020

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 448 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles east of McCaslin Mountain Natural Area, or 27 miles south of
Kingsford, moving east at 60 mph. Other storms were developing east
of Mountain.

Half inch hail will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Crivitz, Wausaukee, Bear Paw Scout Camp, Middle Inlet, Amberg,
Beecher, Athelstane, Silver Cliff, Caldron Falls and Mcallister.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4523 8773 4508 8843 4547 8842 4564 8781
      4559 8778 4556 8779 4556 8783 4554 8780
      4550 8779 4547 8781 4544 8786 4541 8785
      4535 8789 4537 8787 4534 8785 4535 8782
      4535 8775 4539 8770 4537 8766 4534 8765
TIME...MOT...LOC 2148Z 252DEG 52KT 4542 8826

Kieckbusch

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
633 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2020

WIZ005-010-270015-
Vilas WI-Oneida WI-
633 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2020

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 632 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Rainbow Flowage, or 12 miles west of Eagle River, moving northeast at
55 mph.

Half inch hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Eagle River, Phelps, Rainbow Flowage, Arbor Vitae, Woodruff, Conover,
Lake Tomahawk, Sayner, Land O Lakes and Lac Vieux Desert.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
north central and northeastern Wisconsin.

LAT...LON 4614 8909 4607 8893 4603 8893 4578 8961
      4597 8977 4618 8928
TIME...MOT...LOC 2332Z 239DEG 48KT 4594 8951

Kieckbusch

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
647 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     HAIL             2 W WASHINGTON ISLAND   45.38N 86.94W
09/26/2020  E0.75 INCH       DOOR               WI   PUBLIC

            DELAYED REPORT. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

BERSCH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
703 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2020

WIZ005-011-012-270030-
Vilas WI-Florence WI-Forest WI-
703 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN FOREST...
SOUTHEASTERN VILAS AND NORTHWESTERN FLORENCE COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM
CDT...

At 703 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles northeast of Phelps to 6 miles south of
Kentuck Lake Campground. Movement was east at 45 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Phelps, Wisconsin Slough Natural Area, Kentuck Lake Campground,
Alvin, Luna-White Deer Campground, Franklin Lake Campground, Nelma,
Anvil Lake Campground and Windsor Dam Campground.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
north central and northeastern Wisconsin.

LAT...LON 4602 8882 4603 8880 4603 8878 4602 8878
      4603 8873 4601 8868 4599 8867 4598 8864
      4599 8861 4602 8860 4601 8859 4602 8853
      4599 8850 4600 8846 4599 8844 4597 8844
      4588 8905 4590 8905 4590 8913 4614 8910
TIME...MOT...LOC 0003Z 254DEG 39KT 4613 8900 4590 8898

Kieckbusch

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