Small Craft Advisory 86, NWS Green Bay, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
300 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2020

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Friday
Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2020

Surface low moving from Kansas City to Milwaukee
will produce showers and scattered thunderstorms over much of the
area tonight, with a mix of snow, sleet and rain in the Northwoods.
Another couple inches of snow are possible north of Rhinelander,
along with some sleet accumulation.

Gulf moisture streaming northward and overrunning a surface warm
front over southern Wisconsin should result in heavy rainfall
totals, especially in east central Wisconsin. Unseasonably high
precipitable water values and possible training of convective
elements suggest that two inches or more are possible there. This
could produce minor urban and small stream flooding.

Gusty northeast winds and building waves coming down the bay may
bring water levels high enough to produce minor flooding of areas
along the bay from Marinette to Green Bay to Dyckesville.

The showers should exit eastern Wisconsin friday morning, with
some lake effect snow possible in Vilas county through early
afternoon.

.LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Thursday
Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2020

200/500mb height anomalies have been running below normal for
much of October. This has resulted in monthly averages running
2F to 4F below normal. The below normal height pattern will
continue over the next week into the 6 to 10 day period all
but ensuring October will go down in the records colder than
normal. The 500mb pattern will have a ridge across the Pacific
Ocean into western North America with a downstream across the
central and eastern United States.

For Friday night, there is a chance of snow showers across the far
northwest due to a cold northwest flow off Lake Superior. Any
accumulation would be on the light as the main snow shower
activity should remain north in Upper Michigan. Saturday will be
dry and cold with highs in the lower to middle 30s north and
around 40 across the Fox Valley and lakeshore. The next low
pressure system approaches the area from the west Saturday night.
Still a lot of uncertainty if precipitation would arrive later
Saturday night or on Sunday morning.

It appears that another accumulating snow is possible across the
north Sunday into Sunday night. There is still a lot of
uncertainty in snowfall depending on the track of the system
and how much warm air will work into northern Wisconsin. Dry
conditions are expected Monday through Thursday, although
temperatures will be more typical of middle November.
&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2020

Ceilings and visibilities will lower to IFR this afternoon
as an approaching storm system brings showers along with snow in the
far north and thunderstorms across central and east central Wisconsin.

IFR conditions will continue tonight with periods of rain. The rain
will be mixed with snow near the Michigan border this evening, and
there could be scattered thunderstorms this evening in the Fox Valley
and near Lake Michigan.

The storm system will exit around midday Friday, with the
precipitation ending and ceilings and visibilities improving in
the afternoon.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday for WIZ010>012.

Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 4 AM CDT Friday for WIZ039-073-
074.

Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM CDT Friday for WIZ005.
&&

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......Eckberg
AVIATION.......RDM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
226 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2020

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-231930-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
226 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Wet snow changing to sleet or rain will produce hazardous travel
conditions in northcentral Wisconsin. Another 1 to 3 inches of
snow are possible north of a Rhinelander to Niagara line.

Showers and scattered thunderstorms will produce periods of heavy
rain tonight. A few thunderstorms could produce gusty winds and
hail south of highway 29. A couple inches of rain are possible in
the Fox Valley and lakeshore counties, with a bit less elsewhere.
Flooding of urban areas and small stream is possible where the
heaviest rain falls.

Gusty northeast winds and large waves could produce lakeshore flooding
to the bayshore areas from Marinette to Oconto to Green Bay. Roads and
low-lying areas near the bay could also become flooded, including the
the East and Fox Rivers, as well as Duck Creek.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Thursday

Additional snow is possible over northern Wisconsin Sunday into
Sunday night. It is too early to determine snowfall amounts.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to report significant rain and snow amounts,
along with any hail reports to the National Weather Service in
Green Bay.

LMZ521-522-541>543-231930-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
226 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Conditions hazardous to small craft are likely today and tonight.
Gale force wind gusts are possible. A Small Craft Advisory
remains in effect.

There is a chance of thunderstorms today into this evening, mainly
south of Sturgeon Bay.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Thursday

Conditions hazardous to small craft are likely to continue through
Friday evening.

RDM/Eckberg

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
450 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     HEAVY RAIN       6 SE FREMONT            44.20N 88.77W
10/22/2020  M1.09 INCH       WINNEBAGO          WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TOTAL SINCE 7 AM.

&&

KURIMSKI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
500 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     HAIL             STRATFORD               44.79N 90.08W
10/22/2020  M0.25 INCH       MARATHON           WI   PUBLIC

&&

HYKIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
508 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0443 PM     HAIL             5 W ROSHOLT             44.63N 89.40W
10/22/2020  M0.75 INCH       PORTAGE            WI   PUBLIC

            DIME SIZE HAIL.

&&

HYKIN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
510 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2020

WIZ013-019>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-222315-
Northern Marinette County-Langlade-Menominee-
Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-Wood-Portage-Waupaca-
Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-Calumet-Manitowoc-
Southern Marinette County-Southern Oconto County-
510 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2020

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS EVENING ...

Scattered thunderstorms continue to move across central, portions
north-central, and northeast Wisconsin early this evening. The
scattered storms extended from Wausau to Wausaukee to the Fox
Valley and lakeshore. The strongest storms were moving offshore
Manitowoc County.

The strongest storms will be capable of producing hail up to
penny size and wind gusts to around 35 mph. Brief heavy rain
are also possible.

Eckberg

Special Weather Statement...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
512 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2020

WIZ013-019>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-222315-
Northern Marinette County-Langlade-Menominee-
Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-Wood-Portage-Waupaca-
Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-Calumet-Manitowoc-
Southern Marinette County-Southern Oconto County-
512 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2020

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS EVENING ...

Scattered thunderstorms continue to move across central, portions
north-central, and northeast Wisconsin early this evening. The
scattered storms extended from Wausau to Wausaukee to the Fox
Valley and lakeshore. The strongest storms were moving offshore
Manitowoc County.

The strongest storms will be capable of producing hail up to
penny size and wind gusts to around 35 mph. Brief heavy rain is
also possible.

Eckberg