Freeze Warning 3, NWS Green Bay, WI

811 
WWUS73 KGRB 111254
NPWGRB

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
754 AM CDT Mon May 11 2020

WIZ020-022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-111400-
/O.EXP.KGRB.FZ.W.0003.000000T0000Z-200511T1300Z/
Menominee-Door-Marathon-Shawano-Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-
Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-Calumet-Manitowoc-
Southern Marinette County-Southern Oconto County-
Including the cities of Keshena, Neopit, Sturgeon Bay, 
Fish Creek, Sister Bay, Wausau, Shawano, Marshfield, 
Wisconsin Rapids, Stevens Point, Plover, New London, Waupaca, 
Clintonville, Appleton, Green Bay, Kewaunee, Luxemburg, 
Redgranite, Wautoma, Oshkosh, Neenah, Menasha, Chilton, Brillion,
New Holstein, Manitowoc, Two Rivers, Harmony, Peshtigo, 
Porterfield, Crivitz, High Falls Reservoir, Loomis, Middle Inlet,
Little Suamico, Sobieski, Brookside, Oconto, and Pensaukee
754 AM CDT Mon May 11 2020

...FREEZE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING...

Temperatures are warming up above freezing at most locations over
central to northeast Wisconsin this morning, thereby ending the 
threat of damage to sensitive vegetation. The Freeze Warning will 
therefore be allowed to expire.

$$

mpc

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
240 PM CDT Sun May 10 2020

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Monday
Issued at 238 PM CDT Sun May 10 2020

The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show low
pressure moving across southern Lower Michigan early this
afternoon. Behind the low, ample cloud cover and chilly temps
prevail across northeast Wisconsin, with readings ranging from the
middle 30s to the middle 40s. Plenty of cloud cover exists
upstream over and north of Lake Superior, so do not expect much
clearing this afternoon. Light precip, however, is diminishing
from north to south, but still some light rain or drizzle
appearing from Kewaunee to Stevens Point. With a cool airmass in
place and potential for clearing skies tonight, forecast concerns
mainly revolve around the potential for freezing temperatures.

Tonight...As low pressure pulls away, high pressure positioned
over the Plains will edge ever so slightly towards the western
Great Lakes. North winds will therefore continue, and will likely
persist at most locations to prevent decoupling. Cloud cover will
also be an issue, as models indicate that a push of drier air will
not occur until very late tonight. Will side with guidance
slightly warmer than the NationalBlend, which will place lows
ranging from the middle 20s to lower 30s. Forecast lows remain
below freezing at most locations, so will issue a freeze warning
for central to northeast Wisconsin where the growing season has
started.

Monday...Northwest winds will bring another dry airmass into the
state. Although some high based diurnal cumulus will pop with the
heat of the day, skies will remain mostly clear to partly cloudy
which should help temps rebound into the middle 40s to middle 50s.

.LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Sunday
Issued at 238 PM CDT Sun May 10 2020

Potential frost/freeze headlines and elevated fire weather
conditions will be the concern into Tuesday, followed by a milder
and somewhat wetter pattern for the rest of the week.

A weak cold front is expected to move through the region Monday
night, but skies will remain clear to partly cloudy. Lowered
the blended forecast temperatures a bit, especially in the typical
cold spots of north-central WI. A hard freeze looks like a good
bet, especially northwest of the Fox Valley/lakeshore areas.

Expect a slight moderation in temperatures on Tuesday, with highs
in the 50s, and another day of very low relative humidity in the
sandy soil regions. Dry conditions should persist through Tuesday
night, but low temperatures should not be as cold due to WAA and
increasing high clouds late. Even so, suspect we will still need
at least frost advisory headlines.

Strong return flow is expected to develop Wednesday afternoon and
night, as the surface high shifts into the eastern Great Lakes
and a 30-40 knot low-level jet develops. This will bring a swath
of showers through the forecast area. The showers should diminish
somewhat overnight as the low-level jet veers west.

Models offer differing solutions on Thursday and Thursday night.
The GFS is farther north with a surface low and associated warm
front, and brings significant QPF to most of the region Thursday
afternoon and evening. The ECMWF is farther south and much drier,
with showers mainly impacting our southeast counties. Due to the
uncertainty, we stayed close to the blended model pops during
this period. Milder temperatures in the 60s are anticipated,
though precipitation trends will have an impact on this.

Friday looks like the best bet for a dry day late in the week,
as weak high pressure arrives. Could see a few of our typical
warm spots reach into the lower 70s.

Seasonal temperatures and small precipitation chances are
anticipated for the weekend, with high temperatures reaching
65 to 70 degrees away from Lake Michigan.
&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1143 AM CDT Sun May 10 2020

Low pressure will continue to move east and across Lower Michigan
this afternoon. As north winds bring in drier air from the north,
lingering mvfr cigs should rise to vfr over the next few hours.
Think clouds will persist longer tonight so held onto broken cigs
until after midnight. Once skies clear late tonight, good flying
weather remains expected for Monday.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Sun May 10 2020

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected on Monday and
Tuesday. Relative humidities should drop into the 15 to 25 percent
range in the sandy soil regions both days, but winds should only
be moderate from the west-northwest, with gusts to 15 to 20 mph.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Monday for WIZ020-022-030-
031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074.
&&

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......Kieckbusch
AVIATION.......MPC
FIRE WEATHER...Kieckbusch

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
241 PM CDT Sun May 10 2020

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-111945-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
241 PM CDT Sun May 10 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Freezing temperatures are expected across the entire area tonight.
Cold sensitive plants should be covered or moved indoors to prevent
damage.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Sunday

A frost or freeze is possible Monday night and again Tuesday night.

Elevated fire danger is expected on Monday and Tuesday, due to
low relative humidity and moderate west-northwest winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed tonight.

LMZ521-522-541>543-111945-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
241 PM CDT Sun May 10 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Gusty northeast to north winds will produce hazardous conditions
for small craft through the late evening hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Sunday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

MPC/Kieckbusch