Tornado Warning 3, NWS Goodland, KS

939 
WWUS53 KGLD 022227
SVSGLD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
427 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2020

COC063-022245-
/O.CON.KGLD.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-200702T2245Z/
Kit Carson CO-
427 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2020

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM MDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN KIT CARSON COUNTY...
    
At 427 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 12 miles north of Bethune, or 13 miles northeast of
Stratton, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
northeastern Kit Carson County.

This includes Highway 385 between mile markers 199 and 206, and near
mile marker 211.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3944 10251 3957 10251 3957 10214 3945 10211
TIME...MOT...LOC 2227Z 272DEG 18KT 3947 10248 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.25IN

$$

Lundquist

482 
WWUS53 KGLD 022238
SVSGLD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
438 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2020

COC063-022247-
/O.EXP.KGLD.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-200702T2245Z/
Kit Carson CO-
438 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2020

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN KIT CARSON COUNTY WILL EXPIRE
AT 445 PM MDT...
    
The tornado threat has diminished and the Tornado Warning has been
cancelled. However, large hail and damaging winds remain likely and a
Severe Thunderstorm Warning remains in effect for the area.  However
gusty winds and heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
east central Colorado.

Remember, a Severe Thunderstorm Warning still remains in effect for
northern kit carson county.

LAT...LON 3944 10251 3957 10251 3957 10214 3945 10211
TIME...MOT...LOC 2237Z 261DEG 30KT 3948 10239 

$$

Lundquist

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
317 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 1133 AM MDT Thu Jul 2 2020

Latest upper air analysis and satellite imagery show southwest
flow over the Great Basin onto the High Plains with cloud cover
continuing to fade. A short wave trough was deepening over
Eastern Colorado. At the surface a dry line/surface boundary was
located just west of the KS/CO border. To the east an outflow
boundary from convection to the east was moving westward.

This afternoon am expecting thunderstorms to initiate near Akron
and Yuma by 2 PM MT. Based on the explosive growth with storms
yesterday, am expecting the same to occur today. As storms move
east they should increase in coverage and intensity. Based on the
0-6 KM shear, 0-3 KM helicity, and ML CAPE am thinking these
storms may become super cells despite the rather weak shear. The
greatest risk for hail will be when storms initially develop. Once
the storms begin to group together the hail threat will go down
and the risk for straight-line winds will go up. Currently am
thinking the greatest risk for straight-line winds will be along
Highway 36 corridor.

Tonight the storm activity will continue to move east. Am not sure
how late into the evening the potential for damaging straight-
lines winds will last. However, based on what happened over the
past week in a similar setup, am thinking the risk may persist to
after midnight; although by late evening the threat will will be
more isolated that earlier in the evening.

Confidence of severe thunderstorms occurring and producing these
threats are between moderate and high. Impacts will be broken tree
limbs, downed power poles, limited visibility in the torrential
rainfall/blowing dust. However, confidence of these threats
occurring east of Highway 83 declines. The one factor that is
tricky to determine is when the storms will reach the eastern 1/3
of the forecast area. If they race east after clustering together,
they may reach the eastern part of the forecast area early enough
in the evening to still produce damaging winds over a more than
just isolated locations.

Friday a similar setup will exist for severe thunderstorms to
occur. However the ML CAPE will be pushed further east, with the
dry line between Highways 27 and 83, except for an arc of higher
dewpoints over Yuma County. Deep layer shear over Yuma County is
15 kts, so may see some strong thunderstorms until the storm
activity moves over the east half of the forecast area. Currently
this shouldn't occur until the evening, which will limit the
amount of instability present.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2020

An upper-level ridge axis is expected to remain over Central High
Plains in the extended forecast. An upper-lvel trough is across
the Pacific NW. A 500mb low develops across region on Sunday as
ridge flattens. Ridge builds back into the High Plains next week
with a few shortwave troughs moving across the Central Region High
Plains.

At the surface a boundary is across the CWA on Saturday. A trough
is expected to be across eastern Colorado/northwest KS region
through the period.

Expecting temperatures to be in the low to mid 90s on Saturday.
Temperatures will be slightly cooler on Sunday expecting to be in
the mid 80s to low 90s. Temperatures will increase above normal
later in the period to upper 90s near 100 by Wednesday. Expecting
a chance of preciptation Saturday with increase chances on Sunday
as H5 low moves across region. Expect chances of precipitation to
decrease by Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1133 AM MDT Thu Jul 2 2020

VFR to MVFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Main focus is the
timing of thunderstorms over both sites. As thunderstorms move
over KGLD, anticipate the visibility falling to atleast MVFR,
maybe even IFR for a short time. Winds will also be gusty with
these storms. There could also be some blowing dust. On a side
note, arrival time may not be soon enough if the storms produce
outflow winds and race eastward.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...JTL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
935 AM MDT Thu Jul 2 2020

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-031545-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
935 AM MDT Thu Jul 2 2020 /1035 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

Isolated thunderstorms will begin to develop by 2 PM MDT between
Yuma and Akron. Storms may quickly become severe and increase in
coverage as they move east during the afternoon and evening. Main
threats will be hail up to 2 inches in diameter, wind gusts of 60-80
MPH, blowing dust, and torrential rainfall. The largest hail will
occur before storms group together, then the main threat will be
damaging wind gusts, especially along the Highway 36 corridor.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Severe thunderstorms may form Saturday afternoon and evening east of
a Benkelman to Goodland and Tribune line. Main threats will be large
hail, damaging wind gusts, and torrential rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed this afternoon and evening. Storm
reports by phone or through social media are greatly appreciated.

JTL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
253 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     TORNADO          9 SW JOES               39.55N 102.79W
07/02/2020                   KIT CARSON         CO   STORM CHASER

            POSSIBLE LANDSPOUT REPORTED BY CHASER VIA
            SPOTTER NETWORK. EXACT LOCATION ESTIMATED
            FROM RADAR.

&&

JRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
352 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     HAIL             3 SW JOES               39.62N 102.72W
07/02/2020  E0.88 INCH       YUMA               CO   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
358 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0353 PM     HAIL             1 ESE BURLINGTON        39.30N 102.26W
07/02/2020  E0.75 INCH       KIT CARSON         CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
413 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     HAIL             3 S BURLINGTON          39.26N 102.27W
07/02/2020  E0.70 INCH       KIT CARSON         CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
416 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     HAIL             5 WSW JOES              39.61N 102.76W
07/02/2020  E1.00 INCH       YUMA               CO   PUBLIC

            HAIL STRIPPED SOME CROPS ON PROPERTY.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
417 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2020

KSZ027-022245-
Wallace KS-
417 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN WALLACE COUNTY UNTIL 445
PM MDT...

At 417 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Weskan, or 10 miles west of Sharon Springs, moving northeast at 30
mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sharon Springs and Weskan.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
east central Colorado...and west central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3874 10197 3886 10205 3893 10205 3907 10179
      3882 10164
TIME...MOT...LOC 2217Z 206DEG 26KT 3888 10195

024