Special Weather Statement, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
517 PM MDT Thu Aug 20 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 145 PM MDT Thu Aug 20 2020

Next shortwave trough rounding the western ridge will arrive this
evening accompanied by widely scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Environment will be similar to yesterday, with a slight uptick in
MLCAPE, while DCAPE and effective shear are more or less the same.
Expecting wind to be the primary hazard with gusts up to 65 mph
possible with stronger storms. Despite a gradual decline in
coverage through the evening, isolated showers/storms may persist
through the overnight before ending by 12z Saturday. Low
temperatures will be in the 60s.

Upper ridge nudges into the area on Friday with rising heights. A
few of the CAMs suggest isolated thunderstorms developing at peak
heating along a surface trough from northeast Colorado into
central Nebraska, moving east and weakening Friday evening. Weak
instability remains a limiting factor, but cannot rule out an
isolated severe wind gust with any storm that develops.
Temperatures will warm into the middle to upper 90s and lows
Friday night in the 60s again.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 131 PM MDT Thu Aug 20 2020

The long term period will see the continuation of the warm and dry
pattern we have seen this past week. On Saturday the upper level
high will be centered over Arizona with the ridge over majority of
the western CONUS. The cut-off low is expected to slowly move east
towards the Tennessee Valley setting up northerly flow across the
Central Great Plains. The ridge will continue to move east into next
week centering over the High Plains region by Tuesday. As the high
moves into the Four Corners region early next week, the ridge will
extend into central Canada. Wednesday, a shortwave trough will move
east along the northern extent of the ridge in Canada sending a cold
front south. Looking at current guidance, it doesn't seem like the
cold front will make it's way into the Tri-State area.

High temperatures will be in the 90s each day. Low temperatures are
expected to be in the 60s. Dry conditions are expected through the
period. There is some concern for fire weather during the long term
period. Relative humidity values are expected to drop down into
middle to lower 20s each day in eastern Colorado. Sunday through
Tuesday the concern is little higher as the low humidity levels will
be co-located with southerly wind gusts approaching 25 mph.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 514 PM MDT Thu Aug 20 2020

VFR conditions forecast for the 0z TAFs. Confidence of storms
moving near a TAF site for the evening is low enough to not put in
the TAFs. If one of the sites were to have storms move nearby, am
thinking it would be KMCK during 3-4z. Otherwise winds will be on
the light side through the period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...KMK
AVIATION...JTL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1034 AM MDT Thu Aug 20 2020

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-211645-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
1034 AM MDT Thu Aug 20 2020 /1134 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2020/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

There is a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms along and west of
a line from McCook to Colby and Leoti in the 5 PM MDT (6 PM CDT) to
11 PM MDT (midnight CDT) timeframe. The primary hazard will be wind
gusts to 60 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
724 PM MDT Thu Aug 20 2020

COZ092-210215-
Cheyenne County CO-
724 PM MDT Thu Aug 20 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY IN EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO UNTIL 815 PM MDT...

At 723 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles south of Boyero, or 36 miles south of Flagler, moving southeast
at 30 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Kit Carson, Wild Horse and Aroya.

LAT...LON 3869 10316 3904 10316 3904 10311 3863 10259
      3861 10261 3861 10313 3864 10317
TIME...MOT...LOC 0123Z 299DEG 25KT 3877 10319

Lockhart

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>