Special Weather Statement, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
125 PM MDT Sun Aug 9 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 125 PM MDT Sun Aug 9 2020

Tonight...isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms
are expected to initiate along a wind shift line extending from
Benkelman to Ruleton and Vona through 20z with a motion to the
east and northeast reaching a line from around McCook to Colby and
Tribune by 00z. Thunderstorms will continue moving east and
southeast through this evening then dissipate while moving out of
the area before midnight. The primary threats will be outflow wind
gusts to 70 mph, hail up to the size of golf balls, and a brief
period of locally heavy rainfall that could produce flash
flooding. After midnight a cold front moves south through much of
the area with winds shifting to the north and northeast with gusts
to around 20 mph possible. Low temperatures are expected to be in
the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Monday-Monday night...some cooler air moves into the area with east
to northeast winds of 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts during the day.
High temperatures will be below normal in the low to upper 80s. A
minor weather disturbance moves across the area during the afternoon
and evening supporting a slight chance of thunderstorms. Low
temperatures are expected to be in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Tuesday-Tuesday night...another weather disturbance moves toward the
CO/KS border during the afternoon with some weak upper jet support.
Should have a nice wind profile for strong to possibly severe
storms. Thunderstorm activity continues east during the evening and
about out of the area by sunrise Wednesday morning. High
temperatures warm back into the upper 80s to low 90s. Low
temperatures fall into the upper 50s to upper 60s.

Wednesday...like clockwork another weather disturbance reaches the
CO/KS border in the afternoon and if the trend continues some slight
chance pops for thunderstorms will need to be added. High
temperatures return to slightly above normal levels in the low to
mid 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 1253 PM MDT Sun Aug 9 2020

Strong ridging at 500 mb continues to be the main weather focus in
the extended period. Zonal flow at the start of the period with
ridge south of the CWA, but by the tail-end of next weekend, a slow
shift to northwest flow does occur. Previous models runs had an
earlier shift to northwest flow, but with this, a couple of quick
moving shortwaves work over the north side of the upper ridge and
across the Tri State region.

Surface to 850 mb troughing over the eastern Rockies will aid in
triggering a few showers or storms across the area. Passage of these
systems will focus on an evening timeframe. Ample moisture on
southerly surface flow feeding into the area along the remnants of
the surface fronts/boundaries(that work east with the passing
shortwaves), will also support some potential fog formation towards
12z each morning.

For temps, a westerly to northwesterly upper flow, combined with a
southerly surface gradient, will give the area above normal highs
mainly in the 90s up to the upcoming weekend, with a dip into the
mid and upper 80s next weekend as slightly cooler air advects into
the CWA. Lows stay mainly in the 60s for the overnight periods,
warmest east. A few spots in northeast Colorado may drop into the
upper 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1055 AM MDT Sun Aug 9 2020

For KGLD and KMCK, vfr conditions are currently expected through
the period. Showers and thunderstorms with a primary threat of
strong outflow winds and locally heavy rainfall will be possible
at KGLD in the 23z-01z timeframe and KMCK in the 23z-03z
timeframe. The locally heavy rainfall could create sub vfr cigs.
Otherwise for today a south to southeast wind expected at speeds
approaching 10kts. For this evening after convection dissipates am
expecting a cold front to move through the terminals with a north
to northeast wind approaching 12kts with some higher gusts. Post
frontal stratus and sub vfr cigs are possible for a few hours at
KGLD around 14z and KMCK as early as 12z. Northeast winds Monday
morning look to gust up to 25kts.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
230 PM MDT Sun Aug 9 2020

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-101200-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
230 PM MDT Sun Aug 9 2020 /330 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Heat index values of 100 to 103 degrees are expected this afternoon
along and east of a line from Trenton to Colby and Leoti.

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected along and east
of a line from Wray to Kit Carson Colorado through 9 PM MDT (10 PM
CDT). The primary threats with any storms will be wind gusts to 70
mph, hail up to the size of golf balls, and a brief period of locally
heavy rainfall which could create flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

There is a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms along the Colorado
Kansas border area Tuesday afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
249 PM MDT Sun Aug 9 2020

COZ091-KSZ013-092115-
Kit Carson County CO-Sherman KS-
249 PM MDT Sun Aug 9 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN KIT CARSON AND WEST
CENTRAL SHERMAN COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM MDT...

At 248 PM MDT, thunderstorm outflow was located 5 miles south of
Kanorado, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of eastern Kit Carson
and west central Sherman Counties.

This includes Interstate 70 in Kansas between mile markers 2 and 8.

LAT...LON 3937 10194 3931 10188 3921 10213 3927 10214
TIME...MOT...LOC 2048Z 237DEG 27KT 3926 10208

DDT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
303 PM MDT Sun Aug 9 2020

KSZ013-014-027-028-092145-
Wallace KS-Thomas KS-Logan KS-Sherman KS-
303 PM MDT Sun Aug 9 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN WALLACE...
SOUTHWESTERN THOMAS...NORTHWESTERN LOGAN AND SOUTHEASTERN SHERMAN
COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM MDT/445 PM CDT/...

At 302 PM MDT/402 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 15 miles southeast of Goodland, moving northeast at 10
mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 55 mph are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Edson.

This includes Interstate 70 in Kansas between mile markers 25 and 34.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall with this storm may lead to localized flooding.
Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3900 10166 3915 10179 3943 10149 3911 10120
TIME...MOT...LOC 2102Z 232DEG 11KT 3914 10159

Vincent

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
314 PM MDT Sun Aug 9 2020

KSZ001-013-092200-
Sherman KS-Cheyenne KS-
314 PM MDT Sun Aug 9 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CHEYENNE AND
NORTHWESTERN SHERMAN COUNTIES IN NORTHWESTERN KANSAS UNTIL 400 PM
MDT/500 PM CDT/...

At 314 PM MDT/414 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 11 miles north of Ruleton, moving east at 10 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 55 mph are possible with this
storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern
Cheyenne and northwestern Sherman Counties in northwestern Kansas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall with this storm may lead to localized flooding.
Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3939 10159 3941 10205 3963 10205 3969 10184
      3975 10162
TIME...MOT...LOC 2114Z 264DEG 8KT 3951 10191

Vincent

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
344 PM MDT SUN AUG 9 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0336 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 S BURLINGTON          39.23N 102.28W
08/09/2020  M68 MPH          KIT CARSON         CO   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KITR BURLINGTON CO AIRPORT.

&&

KMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
358 PM MDT SUN AUG 9 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0349 PM     HAIL             13 S EDSON              39.14N 101.51W
08/09/2020  E0.70 INCH       SHERMAN            KS   PUBLIC

            CALLER REPORTED ONGOING PEA TO DIME HAIL
            THAT STARTED AT 3:49 PM MDT.

&&

KMK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
458 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020

KSZ001-092245-
Cheyenne KS-
458 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY IN
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

At 458 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of St. Francis, moving northeast at 10 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 55 mph are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
St. Francis, Bird City and Wheeler.

LAT...LON 3991 10164 3964 10142 3957 10173 3957 10187
      3970 10195
TIME...MOT...LOC 2158Z 243DEG 8KT 3966 10179

Vincent