Special Weather Statement, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
545 PM MDT Fri Jun 19 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 206 PM MDT Fri Jun 19 2020

The primary concern in the short term is the possibility of
thunderstorms, with some storms possibly becoming severe, late
Friday afternoon through the evening.

A large area of low pressure is spinning over south central
Canada with several smaller troughs moving through the generally
westerly flow across on the south side of the low through the
central U.S.

Short term models are in reasonable agreement bringing an area of
convection off the central Rockies and through the central High
Plains region late this afternoon and evening in association with
the upper trough moving east of the Rockies. This area of
convection appears to coalesce into an MCS that may bow out and
produce strong to severe winds across the region as it does. While
wind will be the main threat, there is a possibility of large hail
and localized heavy rain that may lead to flash-flooding.
Locations mainly south of Interstate 70 could see between 1/2 to 1
inch of rainfall with locally higher amounts this evening.

The next opportunity for showers and thunderstorms will come on
Sunday afternoon and evening ahead of a surface trough as a
weaker short wave trough aloft moves out of the central Rockies
and over the central High Plains region. The storms should be
mainly over the eastern sections of the forecast area with the
threat of severe weather extending from the far eastern portions
of the forecast area eastward across the plains states.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 202 PM MDT Fri Jun 19 2020

Near to slightly above normal temperatures are expected for through
mid-week  Daily chances for precipitation will be possible across
the Tri-State area.

A broad upper trough will extend west to east from the Rockies to
the Great Lakes on Monday with its southern extent over Northwest
Kansas.  Northwest flow will be set up over the Tri-state region
with an upper ridge over the Eastern CONUS.  Monday and Tuesday,
showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon and
evening hours as a shortwave trough moves through the area and
adequate moisture is pulled into the Central High Plains.  Monday
temperatures will be in hte low to mid-80s for highs and the low to
mid-50s for lows.  Tuesday will be around normal with highs in the
upper 70s to mid-80s and lows in the 50s.

A gradual warming trend will begin on Wednesday with highs in the
mid to upper 80s in the afternoon.  By Friday, temperatures are
expected to return to the low to mid-90s as the upper ridge moves
into the region and flattens out, resulting in zonal flow.  Daily
chances for showers and thunderstorms continue, mainly in the
afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 545 PM MDT Fri Jun 19 2020

Thunderstorms are anticipated to impact both KGLD and KMCK
terminals this evening. Storms are currently approaching KGLD and
should near the terminal at the start of the TAF period. Strong
winds and heavy rainfall are expected, particularly between 01 and
03z. For KMCK, storms will reach the terminal slightly later (am
thinking 02 to 04z to be the prime timeframe). Again strong winds
and heavy rainfall could occur.

Thunderstorms should gradually push east late in the evening, with
VCTS ending around 07z. However, confidence in timing remains low
at this point. Behind thunderstorm activity, low level clouds
will linger, clearing from west to east through Saturday morning.
Confidence is increasing in fog development at KMCK early
Saturday before skies clear.

Winds may become a bit chaotic with storms in the area this
evening. The general trend should be light and variable winds
overnight, followed by west winds at 10 knots or less shifting
south on Saturday.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...AW
AVIATION...JBH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1104 AM MDT Fri Jun 19 2020

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-201645-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
1104 AM MDT Fri Jun 19 2020 /1204 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2020/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Scattered thunderstorms will move out of eastern Colorado this
afternoon and become numerous as they move across northwest Kansas
and southwest Nebraska this evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms
with damaging winds capable of producing gusts over 60 mph will be
the primary threat. Localized heavy rainfall and flash flooding is
also possible with the stronger storms. Thunderstorms and rain
showers will continue after midnight with storms diminishing as they
move east overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and
evening mainly east of east of Highway 25 in northwest Kansas and
southwest Nebraska.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

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