Special Weather Statement, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
120 PM MDT Thu Jun 4 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 120 PM MDT Thu Jun 4 2020

Tonight...isolated thunderstorms will be possible through this
evening before dissipating while moving out of the area by midnight.
The leading edge of a cold front approaches the KS/NE border toward
sunrise with some low clouds possible. Low temperatures are expected
to range from the mid to upper 50s across far eastern Colorado to
the upper 50s to mid 60s east of the CO/KS border.

Friday-Friday night...some slightly "less hot" air moves in but
mainly impacts areas along and north of the interstate where high
temperatures are expected to be in the upper 80s to low 90s along
and north of the interstate. Further south high temperatures are
expected to be in the mid 90s to near 100. A few thunderstorms will
be possible across south of the interstate where a bit of mid level
moisture and limited convective inhibition resides.

Saturday-Saturday night...upper level ridging strengthens over the
area with a large trough west of the Rockies. Not much chance for
precipitation during the day given a lack of appreciable moisture
and increasing 700mb/500mb temperatures which are approaching levels
local research suggests would limit any thunderstorm activity. The
increasingly pressure gradient and 3mb to 5mb 3 hour pressure falls
support breezy to windy south winds during the day. High
temperatures are expected to reach the mid 90s to around 100. For
the overnight hours some mid level moisture moves in from the west
supporting perhaps a few showers/thunderstorms. Low temperatures are
expected to be rather mild in the low 60s to low 70s.

Sunday...the forecast area remains in between an upper level high
pressure area over eastern Missouri and low pressure over the
pacific northwest. Southerly winds may be a tad stronger compared to
Saturday. There is a narrow corridor of mid level moisture along the
CO/KS border possible which may be enough to support a few
thunderstorms despite 700mb temperatures forecast to be in the
15C to 17C range. High temperatures remain in the mid 90s to
around 100 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 112 PM MDT Thu Jun 4 2020

The extended starts out with an upper-level ridge, over the
Southeast and extended north into the Great Lakes region, and an
upper-level trough/ close low digging into the western part of the
US. While on the surface, a cold front is entering the High Plains.
This pattern will produce showers and thunderstorm, mainly for the
northern part of the Tri-State area Monday night into Tuesday
morning. Highs will reach into the upper 90s on Monday before only
reaching the upper 70s behind the front on Tuesday.

For the rest of the period, surface high pressure will build into
the High Plains behind the front and produce dry conditions and
temperatures warming into the upper 80s by the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1045 AM MDT Thu Jun 4 2020

For KGLD and KMCK, vfr conditions expected outside of any
convection in the 21z-02z timeframe. Winds at taf issuance light
from a west or southwest direction continuing through the rest of
the day. For tonight and Friday morning winds slowly veer to the
northwest then northeast as a cold front moves through with speeds
generally under 12kts. Isolated thunderstorms are possible at
either terminal in the 21z-02z timeframe. The primary hazards will
be strong outflow wind gusts to 70 mph and hail. Blowing dust
could impact either terminal if the strong wind gusts develop.
Coverage is rather limited and timing still a bit uncertain so no
tsra mention at this time.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 120 PM MDT Thu Jun 4 2020

Critical fire weather conditions are anticipated Sunday afternoon
across far eastern Colorado. If trends continue a Fire Weather Watch
will be issued in the next day or two.

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are expected
across far eastern Colorado Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 120 PM MDT Thu Jun 4 2020

Here are the Record High Temperatures for June 4-6

                     June 4th         June 5th        June 6th

Goodland KS          101F/1956        98F/1956        100F/1969

McCook NE            110F/1933       112F/1933        108F/1933

Burlington CO         98F/1956        98F/2018         98F/1969

Hill City KS         105F/1933       104F/1933        106F/1933

Colby KS              98F/1958        98F/1960        100F/1933

Tribune KS           103F/2013       100F/1954        101F/2011

Yuma CO               98F/1956        98F/1994         97F/1969

Yuma CO had multiple years for the record on the 5th and 6th.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...99
CLIMATE...JN

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