Special Weather Statement, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
155 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 1235 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2020

Tonight...strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to
continue through this evening then dissipate by midnight. Low
temperatures fall into the mid 50s to mid 60s.

Wednesday-Wednesday night...another round of showers and
thunderstorms are expected to move into the northwest 1/2 to 1/3 of
the area in the mid to late afternoon hours from the northwest,
continuing southeast across the remainder of the area through about
midnight. Good upper jet support to keep the storms going after dark
and we could see an MCS type event or organized convective cluster.
High temperatures will be cooler compared to the past few days with
readings in the upper 80s to low 90s. Low temperatures are expected
to be in the mid 50s to low 60s.

Thursday-Thursday night...as has been the case the past few days we
will have another chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms as
another weather disturbance moves through under northwest flow
aloft. High temperatures warm back up into the low to upper 90s. Low
temperatures remain mild for this time of year with mid 50s to mid
60s.

Friday...at present time it appears that we'll be thunderstorm free
during the day but will have to watch the far western/northwest
fringes closely as GFS advertising another disturbance approaching
per 700-500mb relative humidity. High temperatures reach the mid 90s
to around 100.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 155 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2020

Not much has changed from yesterday's discussion. The models are
still showing an upper-level ridge building over the High Plains.
With it, an upper-level close low will move up the west side of the
ridge, from the SOCAL coast, and become an open wave by the time it
reached the top of the axis.

Towards the end of the period, this ridge will continue to move
eastward while a low/trough moves into the Rockies region, from the
PACNORWEST, behind it, along with its associated surface front.

This pattern will produce mostly hot (middle to upper 90) and dry
conditions for the period with the exception of Saturday, were we
could see showers and thunderstorms related to the open wave, and
Monday, were the showers and thunderstorms will be associated with
the front. In addition, highs on Tuesday will drop into the lower
80s behind the front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1105 AM MDT Tue Jun 2 2020

For KGLD and KMCK, vfr conditions are generally expected through
the period. Both terminals could see showers and thunderstorms in
the 20z-02z timeframe presently. Any thunderstorm will be capable
of large hail, outflow wind gusts to 65 mph possibly creating
blowing dust and reduced visibilities. Locally heavy rainfall is
also possible. Thus, sub vfr conditions are possible during this
time. After about 03z precipitation should be away from the
terminals with northerly winds overnight becoming east around 15z
Wednesday at speeds under 10kts.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
207 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2020

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-031200-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
207 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2020 /307 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2020/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across much of the Tri-
State area through 10 PM MDT (11 PM CDT). The primary hazards will
be hail up to the size of golfballs, wind gusts to 65 mph, landspout
tornadoes and locally heavy rainfall. The strong and sudden wind
gusts could produce blowing dust and reduced visibilities.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

There is a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms across the majority
of the Tri-State area during the late afternoon and evening hours on
Wednesday. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary hazards.

There is a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms across the
majority of the Tri-State area during the late afternoon and evening
hours on Thursday. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary
hazards.

Near critical fire weather conditions are expected across far
eastern
Colorado Saturday and Sunday afternoon. Elevated fire weather
conditions
are expected across far eastern Colorado Monday and Tuesday
afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
102 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2020

COZ091-092-021915-
Kit Carson County CO-Cheyenne County CO-
102 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2020

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 102 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 16 miles south of Bethune to 16 miles northwest
of Kit Carson. These storms were nearly stationary.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
these storms.

These storms will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern
Cheyenne and south central Kit Carson Counties in east central
Colorado.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3904 10237 3887 10299 3901 10306 3916 10245
TIME...MOT...LOC 1902Z 338DEG 2KT 3908 10251 3897 10295

Newman

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
211 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2020

COZ091-KSZ013-022045-
Kit Carson County CO-Sherman KS-
211 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2020

...Brief Landspout Tornadoes Possible...

At 211 PM MDT, conditions are becoming favorable for the development
of landspout tornadoes in and close to a nearly stationary cold
front. However, at this time it is unknown which if any storm would
produce a landspout. Any landspouts which develop are expected to
pose a limited threat.

Locations impacted include...
Kanorado and Ruleton.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will send your report to the National Weather Service
office in Goodland.

Landspout tornadoes can form with a developing thunderstorm before
rain, hail, and even thunder is observed. Landspout tornadoes are not
usually associated with a wall cloud and are often difficult to
detect with weather radar.

&&

LAT...LON 3942 10192 3933 10178 3905 10223 3904 10251

DDT