Severe Thunderstorm Warning 95, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
540 PM MDT Sat Jun 27 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1231 PM MDT Sat Jun 27 2020

18 UTC Water Vapor Imagery and RAP analysis indicate broad
westerly flow aloft over the area,with short wave trough
approaching northeastern Colorado per satellite imagery. At the
surface, seeing two areas of cumulus developing, one along trough
axis from Wray to Limon and another along a convergent area
between Burlington and St. Francis.

Main forecast concern will center around severe thunderstorm
potential late this afternoon tonight.

Expect thunderstorms to develop along trough in eastern Colorado
by 22 UTC, although secondary area of cumulus to the east of the
Colorado state line makes me think there may be 2 areas of initial
development, especially as this area is supported by persistent
forced ascent due to WAA. Despite the possibility of an isolated
cell or two in Kansas, still think forecast will play out similar
to yesterday. Storms will form along trough axis, and with high
bases and strong DCAPE will quickly form strong cold pool/gust
front. With the orientation of 0-3km wind shear, seems like a
favorable environment for MCS to develop and remain in balance
with cold pool for several hours. With potential organization into
a linear mode and strong DCAPE think wind gusts up to 70 mph
primary threat, although if isolated storms develop further east
ahead of the line hail may become more of a threat.

Storms should move across the area fairly quickly with any MCS out
of the area by 06 UTC. On Sunday very warm and dry conditions
expected. Heating may be enough to overcome any capping and with
weak dryline developing would not be out of the question to see an
isolated storm. Signal right now looks fairly weak however and
think continued dry forecast is in order.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 119 PM MDT Sat Jun 27 2020

The extended starts with troughing over the western US, ridging over
the Southeastern and GREAT Lakes regions, and troughing over the New
England States. This upper level pattern will produce southwest flow
aloft over the Tri-States area and aid in dry and hot (highs are
expected to reach at or above 100) conditions through Tuesday
afternoon. Add in relative humidity values of 10 to 15 percent will
result in possible fire weather conditions.

Tuesday afternoon, the models are showing a cold front moving
through the region and producing a chance of thunderstorms during
the afternoon and evening hours, mainly the the northwestern part of
the Tri-State region.

For the rest of the week, temperatures will be in the above normal
range of the middle 90s and an upper-level ridge will build over the
High Plains and influence the area. The However, disturbances
traveling within the upper-level flow may result in afternoon
thunderstorms each day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 540 PM MDT Sat Jun 27 2020

Adverse aviation conditions associated with thunderstorms are
possible at both terminals late this afternoon and evening, mainly
in the 00-06Z time frame. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.
South winds at ~15 knots gusting to 25 knots will persist through
sunset. Winds are anticipated to become light/variable late this
evening. Note -- gusty/erratic winds (possibly gusting to 45-55
knots) will be possible invof any thunderstorms at both terminals
this evening (00-06Z).

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...VINCENT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
729 PM MDT Sat Jun 27 2020

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-290130-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
729 PM MDT Sat Jun 27 2020 /829 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2020/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 2 AM MDT for
Northwest Kansas and Southwest Nebraska. Damaging winds up to 70 mph
are anticipated to be the primary hazard. A few instances of quarter
to golf ball size hail are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are expected
Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday afternoons across East Central Colorado
into parts of Northwest Kansas.

Severe thunderstorms are possible across the majority of the Tri-
State area during the afternoon and evening hours on Tuesday
June 30.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any severe or significant weather
to the National Weather Service in Goodland via social media or
telephone.

Vincent

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