Severe Thunderstorm Warning 61, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
527 PM MDT Sat Jun 6 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 145 PM MDT Sat Jun 6 2020

With the Tri-State area situated beneath a tightening height
gradient between a deep upper level trough over the Western CONUS
and a deep upper level ridge over the MS River Valley --
active/dynamic weather is anticipated through the remainder of
the weekend. Well above normal temperatures, deep mixing, and
strengthening southerly flow aloft will set the stage for a
variety of hazardous weather, including (1) dangerous fire weather
conditions in Eastern Colorado, (2) dangerous travel conditions
assoc/w strong southerly winds and blowing dust, and (3) a
potential for isolated severe storms capable of producing damaging
winds and quarter size hail late this aft/eve, mainly in Eastern
CO between 5-11 pm MDT.

A High Wind Warning has been issued for the entire Tri-State area
during the day on Sunday, with the strongest winds (35-45 mph
gusting up to 60 mph) anticipated to occur late Sunday morning
through mid-late Sunday afternoon. Dangerous travel conditions
assoc/w high winds and areas of blowing dust are anticipated to be
the primary impact -- particularly along the I-70 corridor in
Eastern Colorado and Northwest Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 208 PM MDT Sat Jun 6 2020

Active weather will continue at the start of the period as cold
front slides across the area in advance of strong upper level system
on Monday night. First question of the forecast period will be if
storms can initiate along dryline setting up along the KS-CO border.
Models very pessimistic about this scenario, but with marginal cap
and persistent 0-2km convergence does not look unreasonable that a
storm or two could develop. While shear profiles would support
organized/severe storms on Sunday evening, small likelihood of
occurring should limit the threat at this point.

On Monday, cold front will begin to slide across the area with one
of the biggest concerns for the period being the exact location of
the front. Consensus of ensembles and supports front stalling over
CWA as strong trough  approaches from the west. While a faster front
is indicated by some of the data, will lean towards the ensemble
consensus at this point leading to another hot day. Seems strong
capping is going to limit storm development through the day,and with
frontal zone moving hard to make the argument that strong persistent
convergence will be over any given place long enough to erode cap.
Expect best chances for storms to occur in the evening and overnight
hours as compact H5 trough swings over region. With time of day and
likely elevated nature of storms, expect a decent threat of hail
should any severe storms occur.

Tuesday-Saturday...A break from the heat is in store as temperatures
will fall into the 70s at most locations with lingering showers as
upper trough departs. Once trough departs area on Tuesday afternoon,
period of relatively quiet weather expected as H5 ridge becomes
reestablished late in week. As this occurs, expect warm/hot weather
to return to the area by the start of the weekend. GFS a
considerable outlier holding onto cooler temps when compared to GEFS
and other model data and for the time being have gave it little
weight. As such, expect temperatures to climb back into the 90s by
Friday...with mid upper 90s not out of the question by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 526 PM MDT Sat Jun 6 2020

VFR conditions are expected to continue at KGLD and KMCK terminals
for the majority of the forecast period.  Windy conditions will
continue through the evening and overnight hours with southerly
winds around 25kts and gusts to 40kts at KGLD and KMCK.

Showers and thunderstorms are off to our west, expected to move this
way later this evening. Any storms will have the potential to
produce strong winds.  Blowing dust will be possible ahead of any
storms moving through the area.  Areas with blowing dust will
experience reduced visibility issues.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening for
     KSZ001-013-027-041.

     High Wind Warning from 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ to 9 PM MDT /10 PM
     CDT/ Sunday for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ090>092.

     High Wind Warning from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT Sunday for COZ090>092.

     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ252>254.

     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Sunday for COZ252>254.

NE...High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for NEZ079.

     High Wind Warning from 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ to 9 PM MDT /10 PM
     CDT/ Sunday for NEZ079>081.

&&

SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...AW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1137 AM MDT Sat Jun 6 2020

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-071745-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
1137 AM MDT Sat Jun 6 2020 /1237 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2020/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A High Wind Warning is in effect for portions of Eastern Colorado
and extreme Western Kansas this afternoon and evening, mainly along
and west of Kansas Highway 27. Dangerous travel conditions
associated with high winds and areas of blowing dust are anticipated
to be the primary impact.

A Red Flag Warning for extreme fire weather conditions is in effect
Today for Yuma, Kit Carson, and Cheyenne counties in Eastern
Colorado.

Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds
are possible in Northeast Colorado and adjacent Kansas and Nebraska
border counties late this afternoon and evening, mainly between 5 pm
and 11 pm MDT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

A High Wind Warning is in effect for the entire Tri-State area late
Sunday morning through sunset Sunday evening. Dangerous travel
conditions associated with high winds and areas of blowing dust are
anticipated to be the primary impact.

A Red Flag Warning for extreme fire weather conditions is in effect
for Yuma, Kit Carson, and Cheyenne counties in Eastern Colorado
during the day on Sunday.

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible late Monday afternoon
and evening, mainly north of Interstate 70 in Northwest Kansas and
Southwest Nebraska.

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions will persist
across Eastern Colorado and portions of far Western Kansas through
much of the upcoming work week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon and evening.

Vincent

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
429 PM MDT SAT JUN 6 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0353 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 5 S BURLINGTON          39.23N 102.28W
06/06/2020  M56 MPH          KIT CARSON         CO   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KITR BURLINGTON CO AIRPORT.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
513 PM MDT SAT JUN 6 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 4 E FIRSTVIEW           38.81N 102.46W
06/06/2020  M56 MPH          CHEYENNE           CO   MESONET

            MESONET STATION UP723 3.7 E FIRSTVIEW (UPR).

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
516 PM MDT SAT JUN 6 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0453 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NNE GOODLAND          39.37N 101.70W
06/06/2020  M53 MPH          SHERMAN            KS   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KGLD GOODLAND.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
527 PM MDT SAT JUN 6 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     HIGH SUST WINDS  4 E FIRSTVIEW           38.81N 102.46W
06/06/2020  M50 MPH          CHEYENNE           CO   MESONET

            MESONET STATION UP723 3.7 E FIRSTVIEW (UPR).

&&

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