Severe Thunderstorm Warning 224, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
429 PM MDT Tue Aug 11 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 150 PM MDT Tue Aug 11 2020

Across the Tri State region this afternoon, much of the area is
under sunny skies with the exception being along and just east of
the Colorado border. Cloud cover here just out ahead of an inverted
surface trough currently over eastern Colorado. Temperatures as of
100 pm MDT have a range from the upper 80s through the 90s, with
winds SSE gusting to 20-30 mph at times.

For this afternoon and evening, it will be the inverted trough west
of the CWA for the focus of rw/trw initiation. Area radar is showing
some convection already forming along the trough west of the CWA.
Models do trend an area/line of convection east thru the area this
evening before moving east of the CWA. Convection is aided by an
upper level shortwave moving over the upper ridge that has been in
place for the past several days. SPC has continued a Marginal Risk
for severe thunderstorm potential for areas along and west of
Highway 25 thru the evening hrs. Hail(1-2 inches), winds (60-70 mph)
and potential for locally heavy rainfall are the expected hazards.
The wind and hail threat will morph into more of a wind threat later
tonight as activity traverses the CWA.

For Wednesday and Thursday, upper ridge to remain in place over the
central portion of the country, providing west to northwest upper
flow. A couple more shortwaves are expected to traverse the upper
ridge over these two days, and combined with a surface trough/front
moving off the Front Range, eastern portions of the region could see
strong to severe storm potential. Best chances from latest models
has a Marginal/Slight risk area for Wednesday and a new Marginal
Risk area for Thursday. Both days outlooks will focus on locales
along and east of approx Highway 25. This works up to the proximity
of the surface front that sets up over the CO/KS/NE border.

Current guidance for Thursday has no chances mentioned for the
afternoon/evening hrs for storms, but with a Marginal area east,
have opted to mention a slight chance for locales mainly Highway 83
and east. Same threats as today are possible for storms on Wed/Thu.

For temps, hot and above normal numbers are expected for daytime
highs across the entire CWA, with mid 90s on Wednesday transitioning
to mid and upper 90s for Thursday. Overnight lows will range in the
60s thru the short term period, with warmest locales in the eastern
half of the CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1220 PM MDT Tue Aug 11 2020

The upper level pattern starts with high pressure over New Mexico
and Arizona with low pressure in Canada with troughiness
extending south into the northern plains. The upper high slowly
retrogrades northwest into Nevada and Utah by 12z Monday
continuing through Tuesday amplifying the ridge axis north into
the northern plains. The above mentioned upper low and trough
slide east toward the Great Lakes.

There appears to be enough moisture in the 850-500mb layer for a
few thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening then again
Sunday through Tuesday.

High temperatures Friday in the mid to upper 90s cooling a bit
Saturday to the low to mid 90s. Further cooling is expected Sunday
through Tuesday with below normal readings in the low to mid 80s.
Low temperatures Friday night and Saturday night in the upper 50s to
mid 60s cooling into the mid 50s to around 60 Sunday night and
Monday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 430 PM MDT Tue Aug 11 2020

GLD: Adverse aviation conditions assoc/w thunderstorms are
expected late this afternoon and early this evening, mainly
between 23-02Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions are anticipated to
prevail through the TAF period. SE winds at 15-25 knots will
weaken to 8-13 knots this evening and persist overnight. SE winds
will increase to 12-17 knots by late Wed morning or early Wed
afternoon.

MCK: Adverse aviation conditions assoc/w thunderstorms are
possible late this afternoon and early this evening, mainly between
00-04Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions are anticipated to prevail
through the TAF period. SE winds at 15-25 knots will weaken to
8-13 knots this evening, perhaps becoming variable at times
overnight. S-SE winds will increase to 12-17 knots by late Wed
morning or early Wed afternoon.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...VINCENT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
903 AM MDT Tue Aug 11 2020

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-121515-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
903 AM MDT Tue Aug 11 2020 /1003 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

This afternoon and evening, isolated strong to severe thunderstorms
will be possible. Storms are expected to develop in Eastern Colorado
before progressing eastward later in the afternoon and evening. Any
storms that develop will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts,
hail, and locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed today. Please send any reports of
fog, severe weather or rainfall totals to the National Weather
Service via phone or social media.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
511 PM MDT TUE AUG 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     HIGH SUST WINDS  SAINT FRANCIS           39.77N 101.80W
08/11/2020  M40 MPH          CHEYENNE           KS   AWOS

            AWOS STATION KSYF ST. FRANCIS CITY.

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
512 PM MDT TUE AUG 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     TSTM WND GST     SAINT FRANCIS           39.77N 101.80W
08/11/2020  M57 MPH          CHEYENNE           KS   MESONET

&&

MRC

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