Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
554 PM MDT Thu May 21 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 145 PM MDT Thu May 21 2020

Tonight-Friday...a stalled frontal boundary extending from roughly
McCook to Tribune will act as a focus for showers and thunderstorms
this evening as a strong weather disturbance moves in from the
southwest. All modes of severe weather are possible along with
locally heavy rainfall which could cause flash flooding.
Precipitation chances decrease from west to east after midnight.
Fog is expected for areas mainly east of the CO/KS border. On
Friday dry weather is expected.

Low temperatures are expected to range from 45 to 50 degrees in far
eastern Colorado, upper 40s to mid 50s east of the CO/KS border.
High temperatures are expected to reach the mid 70s to around 80.

Friday night-Saturday...dry weather expected during the night. Low
temperatures in the low to mid 50s. Stratus and fog are possible
across part of far eastern Colorado southeast toward Tribune and
Leoti toward sunrise Saturday morning. The NAM is slower eroding the
low cloud cover from southwest to northeast through the day
compared to the GFS. This could impact the current high
temperature forecast of mid 80s to around 90 degrees if the NAM
verifies. There is a small chance for showers and thunderstorms in
the northern through eastern forecast area in the afternoon but
confidence is low.

Saturday night-Sunday...A few rain showers and thunderstorms are
possible across the northern through eastern zones ahead of a cold
front during the night. Moisture is rather lacking thus my
confidence is low. Low temperatures range from the mid 40s to upper
50s. For the daytime hours a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms across the west and east. This is from an approaching
weather disturbance in the west and proximity to a cold front in the
east. High temperatures should reach the mid 60s to mid 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 129 PM MDT Thu May 21 2020

Not much has changed since yesterday's afternoon discussion. The
models continue to show an amplified upper-level ridge over the
Great Lakes region and upper-level trough deepening over the
Rockies. By Tuesday a cutoff upper low will develop over the Texas
Panhandle while the upper-level flow becomes more zonal across the
northern High Plains. This pattern looks to hold for the rest of the
period.

Meanwhile, on the surface, a cold front is anticipated to still be
transiting across the region Sunday night into Monday morning.
Associated with this front will be showers and thunderstorms, some
may be severe. After the front passes, high pressure is expected to
build over the local area and produce mostly dry conditions for the
rest of the extended. Also, expect below normal temperature on
Monday with the highs reaching into the middle 60s to lower 70s
range. Then warming back into the above normal range (80s) on
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 532 PM MDT Thu May 21 2020

GLD will see VFR conditions become MVFR after midnight with IFR to
LIFR expected between 10-13Z due to low clouds and fog. VFR
conditions will return as fog and low clouds dissipate after 13Z.

MCK will have IFR conditions due to low clouds with a few
thunderstorms in the vicinity between 03-07Z. Fog is also possible
between 07-14Z. VFR conditions will return after 16Z as low clouds
dissipate.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...LOCKHART

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
235 PM MDT Thu May 21 2020

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-221200-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
235 PM MDT Thu May 21 2020 /335 PM CDT Thu May 21 2020/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail up to two and a half
inches in diameter and wind gusts over 60 mph are possible through
this evening mainly south of a line from Norton to Atwood and
Goodland. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. There is also a
Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for areas along and east of a line
from near McCook to Tribune. Locally heavy rainfall is expected and
could cause flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of
the Tri-State area on Saturday, mainly along and north of Interstate
70.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed through this evening.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
515 PM MDT Thu May 21 2020

KSZ027-028-041-042-212330-
Wichita KS-Wallace KS-Greeley KS-Logan KS-
515 PM MDT Thu May 21 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN WICHITA...
SOUTHEASTERN WALLACE...SOUTHWESTERN LOGAN AND NORTHEASTERN GREELEY
COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM MDT/630 PM CDT/...

At 515 PM MDT/615 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 14 miles northwest of Leoti, moving east at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern
Wichita, southeastern Wallace, southwestern Logan and northeastern
Greeley Counties.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT/1000
PM CDT/ for west central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3854 10160 3871 10164 3880 10135 3854 10128
TIME...MOT...LOC 2315Z 258DEG 13KT 3864 10153

024

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
617 PM CDT Thu May 21 2020

KSZ014-015-212345-
Sheridan KS-Thomas KS-
617 PM CDT Thu May 21 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL THOMAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN SHERIDAN COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

At 617 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles south of Menlo, or 10 miles north of Grinnell, moving north at
15 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Menlo and Seguin.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
northwestern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3920 10058 3919 10081 3944 10089 3945 10054
TIME...MOT...LOC 2317Z 177DEG 15KT 3927 10071

024

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
641 PM CDT Thu May 21 2020

KSZ014-220000-
Thomas KS-
641 PM CDT Thu May 21 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN THOMAS COUNTY UNTIL
700 PM CDT...

At 640 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northwest of Oakley, moving north at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Colby, Menlo, Mingo and Halford.

This includes Interstate 70 in Kansas between mile markers 55 and 74.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
northwestern and west central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3913 10082 3916 10106 3942 10105 3936 10072
      3934 10072
TIME...MOT...LOC 2340Z 192DEG 15KT 3922 10093

024

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