Severe Thunderstorm Warning 187, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
236 PM MDT Wed Jul 29 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 209 PM MDT Wed Jul 29 2020

The short term focus is on the possibility of severe thunderstorms
developing across a good portion of the forecast area this afternoon
and evening.

A short wave trough aloft moves out of the Wyoming Rockies and over
the central High Plains region tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are
expected to develop over eastern Colorado this afternoon ahead of
this short wave along with isolated storms developing elsewhere
across the forecast area due to localized instability and
convergence areas associated with a surface trough near the
eastern Colorado border and other boundaries in place near the
Kansas and Nebraska border. Storms will become more widespread in
coverage as they move eastward across the region. The main threats
associated with any storms that become severe are damaging wind
and large hail with a transition to more of a wind threat as
storms transition to a more linear clusters moving to the
southeast this evening.

Thursday and Friday will see a larger amplitude short wave ridge
developing over the Rockies extending northward towards southern
Canada. This will swing the upper flow to a more north
northwesterly direction with the short wave moving off the Rockies
being slow to move out of the area on Thursday. The amplified flow
alfot helps push a back door cold front into the region on
Thursday with daytime highs decreasing from the 80s and lower 90s
on Wednesday to the upper 70s and lower 80s on Thursday. Showers
lingering overnight tonight may redevelop during the day on
Thursday before diminishing Thursday late afternoon and evening.

Dry conditions are expected on Friday with the ridge amplifying
aloft and daytime highs back up in the lower 80s across the
forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 126 PM MDT Wed Jul 29 2020

For the beginning of the weekend the shortwave trough continues
its eastward movement towards the Great Lakes region, as stable
air associated with the surface ridge is firmly above the region
resulting in highs in the 80's and comfortable lows in the 50's
along with dry weather for the weekend. An upper level high
remains in place over the Desert Southwest and greatly amplifies
into the Northern Plains and Manitoba region. With the ridge so
greatly amplified it seems very unlikely that any disturbance
would be able to reach our area for precipitation, I don't want to
rule out any precipitation as there is 55-60% RH available in the
1000-500mb levels of the atmosphere, so if a disturbance is able
to reach the area there is sufficient moisture for a rogue
thunderstorm, however confidence is low. For Sunday the GFS has a
weak cold front come into the area from the NE associated with a
surface high during the afternoon that would drop the high
temperatures into the low 80's for the eastern portions of the CWA
while temperatures would be higher in the western portions of the
area. Light rainfall may be possible with the passage of the
front as the front taps into the available moisture, especially
across the eastern portions of the forecast area.

For the beginning of the work week, disagreements between the
models brings uncertainty to the overall upper level pattern. GFS
is showing a deamplification of the upper level ridge which would
be able to allow more shortwave troughs to be able to get into the
region and allow precipitation to return to the Tri-State area.
Where as the GEFS keeps the ridge greatly amplified which would
allow the hot and dry weather to continue.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1158 AM MDT Wed Jul 29 2020

VFR conditions are expected to persist at MCK and GLD through the
18Z TAF period. Thunderstorms will develop and become a prevailing
conditions after 21Z at GLD and 22Z at MCK. Those storms will
continue through 00Z and 03Z respectively with additional showers
to continue into the evening. There could be intermittent showers
remaining through the night and into Thursday morning, but
confidence in those remaining showers is fairly low, so have left
them out of the latter portions of the TAFs.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...TT
AVIATION...LOCKHART

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1015 AM MDT Wed Jul 29 2020

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-301645-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
1015 AM MDT Wed Jul 29 2020 /1115 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2020/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop along the eastern
Colorado border area early this afternoon with storms becoming more
numerous through the late afternoon and evening as storms move
eastward. Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible
this afternoon and evening from extreme southwest Nebraska and across
northwest Kansas. Damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall are the
main threats along with hail larger than a quarter. A tornado or two
cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
504 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2020

KSZ028-042-292230-
Wichita KS-Logan KS-
504 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN WICHITA AND SOUTH
CENTRAL LOGAN COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

At 504 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles northeast of Leoti, moving southeast at 40 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern
Wichita and south central Logan Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
west central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3853 10124 3865 10139 3874 10131 3877 10121
      3870 10112 3870 10113 3853 10113
TIME...MOT...LOC 2204Z 322DEG 34KT 3866 10125

JRM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
514 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2020

KSZ016-292230-
Graham KS-
514 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN GRAHAM COUNTY UNTIL
530 PM CDT...

At 514 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Morland, or 14 miles west of Hill City, moving southeast at 40 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hill City, Morland, Studley and Penokee.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
northwestern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3929 9978 3921 10016 3925 10017 3945 10016
      3951 9999
TIME...MOT...LOC 2214Z 322DEG 33KT 3936 10012

JRM