Severe Thunderstorm Warning 176, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
206 PM MDT Mon Jul 20 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 206 PM MDT Mon Jul 20 2020

Satellite imagery and 500 mb RAP analysis showed a broad trough
across the northern half of the country this morning. A shortwave
exiting the central Plains sparked convection over eastern Kansas
and western Missouri. Behind this disturbance, northwest flow
prevailed over the region, with areas of high pressure across the
desert southwest and southeastern CONUS. At 2:00 PM MT, a cold front
was draped from west to east across the center of the region with
mostly sunny skies. Temperatures were in the upper 80s to low 90s
with east to southeast winds at 10 to 15 mph. A few small storms had
developed in western Kit Carson county.

The cold front is expected to help trigger thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening, as an upper wave passes through the northwest
flow. Showers and storms should develop in eastern Colorado this
afternoon, and spread east into western Kansas and southwestern
Nebraska this evening. There will be enough shear and instability
for a few severe thunderstorms. Main threats with these storms are
damaging winds, large hail, and locally heavy rainfall.

Another area of storms are forecast to form in central Nebraska this
afternoon and evening, congeal into an MCS, and track southeast
tonight. Depending on how this plays out, we could see another round
of thunderstorms across the eastern part of the region during the
late evening/overnight hours. However, confidence is low at this
time on where this cluster of storms will track. If the line grazes
the region, damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall would be the
main threats.

Otherwise, increased cloud cover is expected tonight, with lows in
the upper 50s to mid 60s. Will need to monitor for the potential of
stratus developing (and perhaps fog) around sunrise.

The region will see a brief break from storm chances Tuesday
morning. Temperatures should be slightly cooler behind the front,
with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Thunderstorms are forecast
to develop off of the Front Range and spread into the area in the
afternoon and evening. A few strong to severe storms will be
possible once again, with threats of damaging winds, large hail, and
locally heavy rainfall. Temperatures fall into the upper 50s to
upper 60s overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 149 PM MDT Mon Jul 20 2020

For the extended period the models are showing an upper-level ridge
extending from the southern Plains over the Rockies dominating the
week with above normal temperatures (middle 90s). Thunderstorms may
develop around the periphery of the ridge each day, along the Front
Range, and move into northeastern Colorado during the late
afternoon/evening hours. Heading into the weekend, the ridge looks
to move eastward into the northern Plains region, which may allow
some storms to move into northwest Kansas/southwest Nebraska area.
Given the weak flow aloft in proximity to the ridge, the chance for
severe storms will be low.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1125 AM MDT Mon Jul 20 2020

Vfr conditions are anticipated at both KGLD and KMCK terminals to
start the TAF period. The main thing to monitor will be
thunderstorm development across the region this afternoon through
the evening hours. Have tried to give best guess on timing of
storms at the terminals, but confidence is not the greatest.
Thunderstorm impacts could occur outside of the mentioned window.
Cloud cover will increase through the evening as storms develop.
Otherwise, southeast winds become light and variable overnight
before becoming east northeast Tuesday morning. Will also need to
monitor for the potential of stratus at KMCK around sunrise.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JBH
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...JBH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
149 PM MDT Mon Jul 20 2020

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-212000-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
149 PM MDT Mon Jul 20 2020 /249 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2020/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop
in eastern Colorado in the afternoon and spread into northwest Kansas
and southwest Nebraska through the evening. Damaging winds, large
hail, and locally heavy rainfall will be the primary threats.

A line of storms is anticipated to form in central Nebraska this
evening and track south through the overnight hours. This second
round of storms could move through an area east of a line from
Trenton, Nebraska to Hill City, Kansas. Damaging winds and locally
heavy rainfall will be the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

There is a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms across the entire
region for the late afternoon and evening hours on Tuesday. Besides
damaging wind and large hail threats, flash flooding is also
possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any severe or significant weather
to the National Weather Service in Goodland via social media or
telephone.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
452 PM MDT MON JUL 20 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0451 PM     HAIL             8 N WILD HORSE          38.93N 103.00W
07/20/2020  E1.00 INCH       CHEYENNE           CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED QUARTER SIZE HAIL THAT
            LASTED FOR APPROX 10 MINS.

&&

TT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
508 PM MDT Mon Jul 20 2020

COZ092-210015-
Cheyenne County CO-
508 PM MDT Mon Jul 20 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY IN
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO UNTIL 615 PM MDT...

At 508 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles northwest of Cheyenne Wells, moving south at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 55 mph are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Cheyenne Wells and Firstview.

This includes Highway 385 between mile markers 136 and 159.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3894 10256 3895 10226 3862 10218 3861 10258
TIME...MOT...LOC 2308Z 356DEG 8KT 3885 10242

Vincent

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
512 PM MDT Mon Jul 20 2020

COZ092-210000-
Cheyenne County CO-
512 PM MDT Mon Jul 20 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY IN
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO UNTIL 600 PM MDT...

At 511 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southwest of Kit Carson, or 31 miles west of Cheyenne Wells,
moving south at 10 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 55 mph are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Kit Carson.

LAT...LON 3878 10300 3879 10281 3861 10273 3861 10305
      3862 10306
TIME...MOT...LOC 2311Z 356DEG 9KT 3870 10291

Vincent

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
527 PM MDT MON JUL 20 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 E FIRSTVIEW           38.81N 102.48W
07/20/2020                   CHEYENNE           CO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORT OF SEMI BLOWN OVER ON HIGHWAY 40 AT
            MILE MARKER 463. TIME IS ESTIMATED.

&&

KAK