Severe Thunderstorm Warning 134, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
217 PM MDT Sun Jul 12 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 217 PM MDT Sun Jul 12 2020

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #363 has been issued for northeast
Colorado and adjacent counties in Kansas until 900 pm MDT.
Forecast has been updated. Threats are large hail and damaging
winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 143 PM MDT Sun Jul 12 2020

Across the region this afternoon, skies are mainly sunny with some
scattered low/high cloud portions of the area. Temperatures are
ranging from the mid 80s into the mid 90s, with an area-wide
southerly gradient gusting to 30-40 mph at times.

For the remainder of the afternoon hrs into tonight, the focus will
be just west of the CWA in central Colorado, where convection is
expected to initiate along a dryline then shift east with the
arrival of a shortwave, then shift SE later tonight as the
convection works over the northern periphery of the strong h5 ridge
over the southern portion of the country.

SPC mesoanalysis has Dcape values 1300-1700 from the Colorado border
west, 40-45kts of bulk shear, and decent mid level lapse rates
should allow for strong to severe storms to develop. Large hail
parameter does indicate large than 1 inch possible. Severe
Thunderstorm Watch will probably be issued for portions of the area
later this afternoon, with wind and hail highlights.

Precipitation that does shift over the CWA will taper by 06z Monday,
allowing for dry conditions thru sunrise Monday and a portion of the
morning hours.

This will lead into Monday/Monday night where a stronger shortwave
moves over the region, triggering a potential stronger round of
storms. SPC has highlighted most of the CWA in Slight Risk for
wind/hail threats, but last outlook update has the enhanced portion
sliding further south, which may change later tonight for portions
of the CWA. With the potential for more widespread areal coverage of
storms, have increased pops slightly, but still in the chance
category due to timing into the CWA.

For temps, mid to upper 90s for Monday highs, with 60s for lows
tonight and Monday night.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 143 PM MDT Sun Jul 12 2020

This this period of the forecast the long wave trough continues to
reside over the central CONUS, flattening the ridge.  The resulting
zonal flow over the forecast area will allow an upper level short
wave trough to move through each afternoon and evening.  The GEFS
members show a higher high probability of rainfall occurring Tuesday
and Wednesday over the Southeast Colorado extending into the
southwest part of the forecast area.  The dry line will move east of
the forecast area Thursday, through the rest of the period. This
lowers confidence of storms occurring due to drier air present
behind the dry line, despite the aid of the upper level short wave
troughs moving through.  Am thinking the best chance for any severe
thunderstorms will be Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon and evenings
before the dry line is pushed east.

The cold front still looks to move through Tuesday, lingering into
Wednesday.  This may also serve as a focus for storm development
Tuesday afternoon over the southwestern part of the forecast area.
The hot air mass will return Thursday as the cooler air mass is
pushed east of the forecast area.

Friday and Saturday relative humidity values will fall close to 15%
for the northwest part of the forecast area.  Winds are forecast to
remain below 25 MPH at this time for that part of the forecast
area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1106 AM MDT Sun Jul 12 2020

At this time, VFR conditions are forecast for both terminals.
There is the potential for storms to affect KGLD later today, but
with timing issues into the area, have left out mention for now.
Potential for storms to be in the vicinity of both KGLD/KMCK by
the end of the forecast period Monday. Timing issues into the
region here as well, so have left out mention of at this time.

Winds for KGLD, S around 15-25kts thru 03z Monday, then
diminishing to around 10-15kts.

Winds for KMCK, S around 15-25kts thru 02z Monday, then SE around
10-15kts.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JN

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
216 PM MDT Sun Jul 12 2020

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-132015-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
216 PM MDT Sun Jul 12 2020 /316 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for northeast Colorado and
adjacent Kansas counties until 900 PM MDT.

Marginal and Slight Risk areas for severe thunderstorms are issued
for areas mainly along and west of Highway 25. The main area of
focus will be in northeast Colorado and adjacent Kansas counties
south of Interstate 70. Threats for severe storms to develop will be
around 3-9 pm MDT. Main possible weather threats will be wind gusts
to 70 mph and hail up to 1 to 2 inches.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

There is a Slight Risk for severe storms on Monday July 13th.
Thunderstorms developing along the Front Range of the Rockies in
Colorado and Wyoming may grow upscale and develop into a squall line
capable of producing widespread damaging winds late Monday afternoon
and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
436 PM MDT SUN JUL 12 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     HAIL             4 NNE VERNON            39.98N 102.24W
07/12/2020  E1.25 INCH       YUMA               CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
437 PM MDT SUN JUL 12 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0434 PM     HAIL             2 ENE VERNON            39.95N 102.25W
07/12/2020  E1.00 INCH       YUMA               CO   CO-OP OBSERVER

            .

&&

JRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
438 PM MDT SUN JUL 12 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     HAIL             7 E HEARTSTRONG         39.93N 102.45W
07/12/2020  E0.88 INCH       YUMA               CO   PUBLIC

            WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH OCCURRED WITH THE
            HAIL.

&&