Severe Thunderstorm Warning 118, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
708 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 708 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2020

The line of storms continues at a decent eastward pace thru the
CWA. As a result, have cleared the next tier of counties from the
Watch. East of Hwy 25 remains in the Watch.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 1133 AM MDT Thu Jul 2 2020

Latest upper air analysis and satellite imagery show southwest
flow over the Great Basin onto the High Plains with cloud cover
continuing to fade. A short wave trough was deepening over
Eastern Colorado. At the surface a dry line/surface boundary was
located just west of the KS/CO border. To the east an outflow
boundary from convection to the east was moving westward.

This afternoon am expecting thunderstorms to initiate near Akron
and Yuma by 2 PM MT. Based on the explosive growth with storms
yesterday, am expecting the same to occur today. As storms move
east they should increase in coverage and intensity. Based on the
0-6 KM shear, 0-3 KM helicity, and ML CAPE am thinking these
storms may become super cells despite the rather weak shear. The
greatest risk for hail will be when storms initially develop. Once
the storms begin to group together the hail threat will go down
and the risk for straight-line winds will go up. Currently am
thinking the greatest risk for straight-line winds will be along
Highway 36 corridor.

Tonight the storm activity will continue to move east. Am not sure
how late into the evening the potential for damaging straight-
lines winds will last. However, based on what happened over the
past week in a similar setup, am thinking the risk may persist to
after midnight; although by late evening the threat will will be
more isolated that earlier in the evening.

Confidence of severe thunderstorms occurring and producing these
threats are between moderate and high. Impacts will be broken tree
limbs, downed power poles, limited visibility in the torrential
rainfall/blowing dust. However, confidence of these threats
occurring east of Highway 83 declines. The one factor that is
tricky to determine is when the storms will reach the eastern 1/3
of the forecast area. If they race east after clustering together,
they may reach the eastern part of the forecast area early enough
in the evening to still produce damaging winds over a more than
just isolated locations.

Friday a similar setup will exist for severe thunderstorms to
occur. However the ML CAPE will be pushed further east, with the
dry line between Highways 27 and 83, except for an arc of higher
dewpoints over Yuma County. Deep layer shear over Yuma County is
15 kts, so may see some strong thunderstorms until the storm
activity moves over the east half of the forecast area. Currently
this shouldn't occur until the evening, which will limit the
amount of instability present.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2020

An upper-level ridge axis is expected to remain over Central High
Plains in the extended forecast. An upper-level trough is across
the Pacific NW. A 500mb low develops across region on Sunday as
ridge flattens. Ridge builds back into the High Plains next week
with a few shortwave troughs moving across the Central Region High
Plains.

At the surface a boundary is across the CWA on Saturday. A trough
is expected to be across eastern Colorado/northwest KS region
through the period.

Expecting temperatures to be in the low to mid 90s on Saturday.
Temperatures will be slightly cooler on Sunday expecting to be in
the mid 80s to low 90s. Temperatures will increase above normal
later in the period to upper 90s near 100 by Wednesday. Expecting
a chance of precipitation Saturday with increase chances on
Sunday as H5 low moves across region. Expect chances of
precipitation to decrease by Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 509 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2020

Both terminals will be affected by a line of showers and
thunderstorms moving from west to east across the CWA thru about
01z-03z Friday. Main factor for both will be strong gust
potential, although rain could drop visibility to 3sm at times
with VCTS.

Winds for KGLD, NW 12-25kts thru 01z-02z Friday, then becoming
ESE 10-20kts. From 07z onward SSE 10-15kts, with gusts to 25kts
from 21z onward. From 00z-01z Friday with thunderstorms
vrb30g60kts possible.

Winds for KMCK, SE around 15-25kts thru about 01z-02z Friday then
WSW 10-20kts. By 13z Friday ESE 5-15kts, with gusts up to 25kts
by 22z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...JN

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
706 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2020

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-040115-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
706 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2020 /806 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effects for counties in
Kansas and Nebraska east of Highway 25. Main threats will be hail up
to 2 inches in diameter, wind gusts of 60-80 MPH, blowing dust, and
torrential rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Severe thunderstorms may form Saturday afternoon and evening east of
a Benkelman to Goodland and Tribune line. Main threats will be large
hail, damaging wind gusts, and torrential rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed this evening. Storm reports by
phone or through social media are greatly appreciated.

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