High Wind Watch 2, NWS Goodland, KS

183 
WWUS73 KGLD 131757
NPWGLD

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1057 AM MST Fri Nov 13 2020

COZ090>092-NEZ079-140700-
/O.UPG.KGLD.HW.A.0002.201114T1800Z-201115T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KGLD.HW.W.0010.201114T1800Z-201115T0000Z/
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne-Dundy-
Including the cities of Yuma, Wray, Burlington, Arapahoe, 
Cheyenne Wells, and Benkelman
1057 AM MST Fri Nov 13 2020

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 5 PM MST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Sustained northwest winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 
  55 mph expected.

* WHERE...In Nebraska, Dundy County. In Colorado, Yuma, Kit 
  Carson and Cheyenne Counties.

* WHEN...From 11 AM to 5 PM MST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines.
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult,
  especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

KSZ001-013-027-140700-
/O.UPG.KGLD.HW.A.0002.201114T1800Z-201115T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KGLD.HW.W.0010.201114T1800Z-201115T0000Z/
Cheyenne-Sherman-Wallace-
Including the cities of St. Francis, Bird City, Goodland, 
and Sharon Springs
1057 AM MST Fri Nov 13 2020 /1157 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2020/

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ TO 5 PM
MST /6 PM CST/ SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Sustanined northwest winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to
  55 mph expected.

* WHERE...Cheyenne, Sherman and Wallace Counties.

* WHEN...From 11 AM MST /noon CST/ to 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ 
  Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines.
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult,
  especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The Kansas Department of Health and Environment recommends that
you take preventative measures during this blowing dust
event...such as staying indoors or wearing protective breathing
masks if outside. High dust concentrations can cause respiratory
problems...decrease lung activity...aggravate asthma...and lead
to potential heart-related problems...especially with
children...elderly...or those with pre-existing respiratory
conditions.

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1253 AM MST Fri Nov 13 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 158 PM MST Thu Nov 12 2020

Forecast through the short term will feature dry, windy conditions
with elevated fire weather each day. Saturday stands out as a day
when all parameters come together for potentially very windy
conditions, critical fire weather and areas of blowing dust.
Temperatures Friday and Saturday will be mild, then cooling down
slightly on Sunday.

Zonal flow aloft will be in place tonight and Friday. Lee trough
will deepen over eastern Colorado, resulting in breezy to windy
southwest winds by Friday afternoon. The downslope component will
help temperatures warm into the upper 50s. Relative humidity will
fall into the lower to middle teens west of Highway 25 including
all of northeast Colorado, but wind speeds fall just short of
critical criteria, so will be messaging elevated fire weather for
those area. Lows Friday night will be in the lower 30s.

Saturday will see a sharp upper trough cross the central Rockies
and into the adjacent plains during the afternoon. Strong winds on
the backside will mix to the surface in the afternoon. Mixing
height forecasts suggest the potential for 50kt gusts or higher,
with highest winds in northeast Colorado. Winds of this magnitude
will be capable of producing blowing dust given the background
drought conditions. In addition, relative humidity will drop into
the middle teens, with critical fire weather conditions likely.
This could be a potentially busy day due to strong winds, blowing
dust and the risk of any fire that develops to get out control.
It will also be a warm day, with temperatures ranging from the
upper 50s in northeast Colorado to the upper 60s in parts of
northwest Kansas. Winds should diminish in the early evening as
boundary layer decouples. Lows Saturday night will be in the 20s
as cooler air moves in behind the front.

Sunday will be quieter under a slight northwest flow aloft, but
still a lingering risk of fire weather. At this point looks more
elevated than critical, with RH in the middle teens, but wind
gusts below 20kts. High temperatures will be in the lower 50s,
near normal for this time of year, and lows Sunday night in the
middle 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 1252 AM MST Fri Nov 13 2020

Monday... An upper level ridge is expected to move east across the
western CONUS bringing NW flow aloft across the High Plains. At the
surface, high pressure in the region will keep the Tri-State area
dry with RH values in the mid 20s. No fire weather is expected at
this time due to winds gusting up to 20 mph as they shift from west
to south. Temperatures on Monday are expected to reach the low to
mid 60s for highs and drop to the low 30s and upper 20s overnight.

Tuesday... The guidance is in good agreement that the ridge axis
will be moving across the Plains throughout the day. The location of
the ridge over the area will assist in warmer temperatures and
slightly drier conditions than Monday. The RH values are even higher
on Tuesday for eastern portions of the CWA, ranging from the low 20s
in eastern Colorado to the low 30s east of KS-25. The SW winds are
expected to once again gust up to 20 mph. Due to the below criteria
winds and RH values only expected to drop into the low 20s, the
confidence in fire weather conditions is low. However, there is some
potential for elevated fire weather conditions west of the Colorado
border. Tuesday high temperatures are expected to reach the mid 60s
with lows in the 30s.

Wednesday... The Tri-State area is expected to be on the back side
of the ridge with SW to W winds. Wednesday looks like it will be the
warmest day of the period with highs currently forecasted to reach
the low 70s. Overnight, temperatures will be in the mid to upper
30s. With the warmer temperatures, comes the chance to dry out even
further than the previous days. RH values are currently expected to
drop into the mid to upper teens west of the Colorado border and
range from the low 20s to low 30s for the remainder of the area.
Fortunately, the winds continue to remain on the lighter side with
peak gusts between 20-25 mph. Despite the light winds, the low
humidity values could be a concern for elevated fire weather
conditions in eastern Colorado during the afternoon.

Thursday... Current guidance depicts the ridge extending across the
entire CONUS. Overnight Thursday, our next trough looks to move onto
the West Coast. The models do begin to differ with the depth of the
ridge and strength of the trough; however, they are in agreement
that the area will continue to experience dry conditions.
Temperatures on Thursday are expected to reach the upper 60s to low
70s for highs and mid to upper 30s for lows. RH values will continue
to be lowest over eastern Colorado with values in the upper teens to
low 20s. The remainder of the area will is currently forecasted to
see values ranging from the low 20s to low 30s. No fire weather
conditions are expected as of now for Thursday due to the RH values
and winds only gusting up to 20 mph. Conditions will continue to be
closely monitored for any increases for fire weather potential each
day next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 947 PM MST Thu Nov 12 2020

VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period. Light/variable
winds will shift to the SSW and increase to ~15 knots shortly
after sunrise (12-15Z), further increasing to 15-25 knots by late
morning and early afternoon. Winds will back slightly toward the S
and decrease to 12-17 knots AOA sunset Friday evening.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...KMK
AVIATION...VINCENT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
801 PM MST Thu Nov 12 2020

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-140315-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-
Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-
Red Willow-
801 PM MST Thu Nov 12 2020 /901 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2020/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT...

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated across the majority
of the Tri-State area on Friday. Critical fire weather conditions
are possible across much, or all, of the Tri-State area on Saturday.

Strong northwesterly winds are anticipated across the entire Tri-
State area on Saturday. Wind gusts may reach or exceed 60 mph.
Areas of blowing dust are possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected.

Vincent