Red Flag Warning 2, NWS Grand Junction, CO

299 
WWUS85 KGJT 280913
RFWGJT

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
313 AM MDT Tue Apr 28 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT
THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS 
FOR COLORADO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 207 AND FIRE WEATHER ZONE 295 
BELOW 8500 FEET...

COZ207-282100-
/O.CON.KGJT.FW.W.0002.200428T1800Z-200429T0200Z/
Southwest Colorado Lower Forecast Area-
313 AM MDT Tue Apr 28 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT
THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE 
WEATHER ZONE 207...

* AFFECTED AREA...In Colorado, Fire Weather Zone 207 Southwest 
  Colorado Lower Forecast Area.

* WINDS...Northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...12 to 15 percent.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will become favorable for the rapid 
  ignition, growth and spread of fires. Agricultural burning is 
  strongly discouraged.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

COZ295-282100-
/O.CON.KGJT.FW.W.0002.200428T1800Z-200429T0200Z/
Southwest Colorado Upper East Forecast Area-
313 AM MDT Tue Apr 28 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT
THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE 
WEATHER ZONE 295 BELOW 8500 FEET...

* AFFECTED AREA...In Colorado, Fire Weather Zone 295 Southwest 
  Colorado Upper East Forecast Area below 8500 feet.

* WINDS...Northwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...12 to 15 percent.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will become favorable for the rapid 
  ignition, growth and spread of fires. Agricultural burning is 
  strongly discouraged.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/gjt

231 
WWUS85 KGJT 282036
RFWGJT

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
236 PM MDT Tue Apr 28 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT
THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS
FOR COLORADO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 207 AND FIRE WEATHER ZONE
295 BELOW 8500 FEET...

COZ207-290200-
/O.CON.KGJT.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-200429T0200Z/
Southwest Colorado Lower Forecast Area-
236 PM MDT Tue Apr 28 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 207...

* AFFECTED AREA...In Colorado, Fire Weather Zone 207 Southwest 
  Colorado Lower Forecast Area.

* WINDS...Northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...12 to 15 percent.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will become favorable for the rapid 
  ignition, growth and spread of fires. Agricultural burning is 
  strongly discouraged.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

COZ295-290200-
/O.CON.KGJT.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-200429T0200Z/
Southwest Colorado Upper East Forecast Area-
236 PM MDT Tue Apr 28 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE
295 BELOW 8500 FEET...

* AFFECTED AREA...In Colorado, Fire Weather Zone 295 Southwest 
  Colorado Upper East Forecast Area below 8500 feet.

* WINDS...Northwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...12 to 15 percent.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will become favorable for the rapid 
  ignition, growth and spread of fires. Agricultural burning is 
  strongly discouraged.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/gjt

029 
WWUS85 KGJT 290216
RFWGJT

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
816 PM MDT Tue Apr 28 2020


COZ207-295-290330-
/O.EXP.KGJT.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-200429T0200Z/
Southwest Colorado Lower Forecast Area-
Southwest Colorado Upper East Forecast Area-
816 PM MDT Tue Apr 28 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 207 AND 295...

Winds have subsided and critical fire weather conditions are no
longer being met. The Red Flag Warning has been allowed to expire.

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/gjt

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1137 AM MDT Mon Apr 27 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 452 AM MDT Mon Apr 27 2020

Except for cirrus moving over southeast Utah and southwest
Colorado ahead of a weak shortwave trough over southern
California, skies were clear across the forecast area. The cirrus
will clear out over the south as the SoCal trough continues
eastward. In contrast, clouds will be increasing across northeast
Utah and northwest Colorado during the latter part of the day as a
low-amplitude mid-level shortwave trough moves across the
Intermountain region. Moisture associated with this system arrives
late this afternoon so chances of convection over the northern
Colorado mountains are low. Elsewhere, dry and mostly sunny
weather will be the rule with temperatures rising from 5 to 10
degrees for all but the southern zones which will only warm by a
couple of degrees.

The shortwave trough mentioned previously, along with its
associated cold front will just brush the northernmost zones this
evening bringing scattered showers to the Elkhead and Park
Mountains and the Flat Tops. This activity will be short-lived as
subsidence develops in the wake of the trough and the atmosphere
stabilizes as the boundary layer cools. The cold front is expected
to reach the southern border late tonight as the trough deepens
over the eastern Colorado plains. Despite decreasing clouds in
the wake of the trough and the cold frontal passage, overnight
lows are expected to remain above normal. This is most likely in
response to mixing associated with the frontal passage and
synoptic scale winds.

Those winds will continue on Tuesday, flowing from the northwest
and becoming enhanced by flow aloft as mixing deepens with
warming during the day. The mountains, higher valleys and south
are expected to become breezy during the afternoon with gusts up
to 30 mph at times. Otherwise, dry and sunny conditions prevail
with slightly cooler, but still well above normal highs during the
afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 452 AM MDT Mon Apr 27 2020

The warm and dry pattern continues Wednesday through Thursday as
the ridge axis moves overhead. Expect weaker winds aloft, but
temperatures climbing well above normal by midweek. A low pressure
system and broad trough, elongated across the Pacific coast will
slide across the western CONUS in the wake of the anomalously
strong high pressure ridge. This system is currently projected to
carry moisture north of the CWA. Although, isolated thunderstorms
and scattered showers can't be ruled out on either Thursday or
Friday afternoon due to steepening lapse rates as cool air moves
overhead. Even though the chance for widespread precipitation
looks bleak, we should see a slight drop in temperatures by Friday
as the cooler airmass carried along by this system works its way
to the surface. Another, strong low pressure system off the PacNW
will dictate the progression of the next shortwave crossing the
region over the weekend. Best chances for precipitation will
likely return in form of afternoon convection, firing off higher
terrain on Saturday and Sunday while the bulk of the moisture
remains north of Colorado and Utah.

Current NBM long-term temperature forecasts remained on track to
reach record breaking highs by Thursday, nearly 20 degrees above
normal. However, the last few days have shown the NBM to be a
little aggressive with afternoon highs and therefore have steered
the forecast toward MEX MOS numbers. Regardless, highs will still
be near record levels. Expect a cooling trend as we head into the
weekend, although temperatures should continue to run 5 to 10
degrees above normal for early May.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1137 AM MDT Mon Apr 27 2020

Low clouds have eroded over the Gunnison Basin leaving VFR
conditions and light winds in place to start the 27/18Z forecast.
Expect VFR to dominate the forecast over the next 24 hours with
confidence low that stratus returns for KGUC. Isolated to widely
scattered showers will develop this afternoon and could produce
some gusty outflow winds in excess of 30 mph. A front sagging into
northern Utah and Colorado may keep a northerly flow in place
instead of the usual downslope winds north of I-70.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 452 AM MDT Mon Apr 27 2020

The wind forecast for this afternoon through early this evening
was weaker than earlier predictions and therefore, the Fire
Weather Watch for today has been canceled. However, a disturbance
in northwest flow moving over the area on Tuesday is expected to
generate strong winds. Gusty northwest winds combined with low
relative humidity, above normal temperatures and dry fuels across
lower elevations of southwest Colorado could lead to critical fire
weather conditions. Therefore, a Fire Weather Watch has been
issued for Tuesday afternoon and evening for portions of southwest
Colorado below 8500 feet.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for COZ207-295.

UT...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...ERW/NL
AVIATION...TGJT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
455 AM MDT Mon Apr 27 2020

COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-281100-
Lower Yampa River Basin-Central Yampa River Basin-
Roan and Tavaputs Plateaus-Elkhead and Park Mountains-
Upper Yampa River Basin-Grand Valley-Debeque to Silt Corridor-
Central Colorado River Basin-Grand and Battlement Mesas-
Gore and Elk Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys-
Central Gunnison and Uncompahgre River Basin-
West Elk and Sawatch Mountains-Flat Tops-
Upper Gunnison River Valley-Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide-
Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains-
Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River-
Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin-
San Juan River Basin-Southeast Utah-Eastern Uinta Mountains-
Eastern Uinta Basin-Tavaputs Plateau-Arches/Grand Flat-
La Sal and Abajo Mountains-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges-
455 AM MDT Mon Apr 27 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for eastern Utah and western
Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Critical fire weather conditions may redevelop across southwest
Colorado again Tuesday afternoon and evening. Otherwise, dry and
unseasonably warm weather is expected through midweek with
thunderstorms in forecast for the mountains and north this
weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.