Special Weather Statement, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1243 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2020

Skies are mostly clear across the area this afternoon. There are
only a few clouds moving through. South winds have helped
temperatures to warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Expect little change in the weather for the rest of the afternoon
and into the evening. It will be later this evening when
thunderstorms on the high plains spread an anvil into the area.
Expect the thunderstorms on the high plains to move east and could
get into the western part of the forecast area closer to 10pm. What
happens after it moves into the area is somewhat of a question. Most
of the models have it die shortly after entering the forecast area.
Yet, there are some that take it across the area. Have kept closer
to the majority of the models, but have kept a little buffer of low
PoPs, a little further north than what they should be and longer
along the southern part of the area. Expect that the southwest will
be the main area that could see a couple of hours of thunderstorms
this evening.

By Thursday morning the upper level wave is out of the area and
expect that clouds will diminish during the morning. An upper level
ridge builds to the west and temperatures will be a little warmer on
Thursday. There is an upper level wave that moves through the area Thursday
night. It is fairly weak, but there is a chance for a few
thunderstorms overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2020

There is an upper level wave that moves through the area Thursday
night. It is fairly weak, but there is a chance for a few
thunderstorms overnight.

Friday through Sunday an upper level ridge builds into the area and
temperatures warm up. There are a couple of waves that move through
Saturday night and Sunday night with some small chances for
thunderstorms, but the period will be mainly dry and warmer with
highs in the 90s for most of the area.

The period Monday through Wednesday will be nearly zonal flow with a
few waves that move through. Timing the waves is always a challenge
and expect there will be on and off, mainly small chances for
thunderstorms. Temperatures will be a little cooler with highs only
in the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Friday)
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2020

Scattered thunderstorms are present west of the terminals...did
include a Tempo Group at KEAR for prevailing storms, but since
high-res guidance continues to limit the eastward extent...have
not included the same at KGRI...so will be watching and amend as
necessary. Winds are southerly and some low clouds may be present
towards the morning with patchy fog. Southerly winds will be
breezy...gusting to 20-25kts during the afternoon.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...Billings Wright

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
805 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2020

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
061200-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
805 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a chance for thunderstorms after sunset, with best
chances south and west of the Tri Cities. These storms are not
expected to be strong or severe.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Thunderstorm chances continue off and on through Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected through tonight.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Thies

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
124 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2020

KSZ006-007-018-019-060715-
Jewell KS-Smith KS-Osborne KS-Mitchell KS-
124 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MITCHELL...
SOUTHWESTERN JEWELL...SOUTHEASTERN SMITH AND NORTHEASTERN OSBORNE
COUNTIES UNTIL 215 AM CDT...

At 124 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Portis, or 29 miles west of Beloit, moving east at 30 mph.

Penny size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Downs, Cawker City, Glen Elder, Jewell, Portis and Ionia.

LAT...LON 3952 9873 3970 9872 3971 9812 3942 9817
TIME...MOT...LOC 0624Z 273DEG 25KT 3961 9863

Billings Wright

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