Severe Thunderstorm Warning 89, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1225 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020

...Aviation Update...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 951 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2020

Various comments about the rest of tonight, mainly regarding
thunderstorm chances/possible severe:

1) Especially up until recently, haven't had the greatest "feel"
for how things play out tonight, as if anything "geographic
confidence" in thunderstorm placement had been lacking somewhat.
That being said, now that the beginning stages of a strong to
severe linear mesoscale convective system (MCS) appears to be
underway in northwest KS and is tracking east, feel a bit better
about the Severe Thunderstorm Watch that SPC earlier coordinated
for most of our counties along/south of the state line (officially
valid until 3 AM). While this complex is currently expected to be
our "main show" overnight, perhaps with the greatest threat being
60-70 MPH winds (and to a bit lesser extent large hail), would
also not be surprised to see more "random" strong to severe
activity blossom farther north (outside the current Watch area).
Unlike last night, where the low level jet exit region was pretty
clearly focused in our south, tonight it actually is progged to
aim more into our central/northern counties as it veers after
midnight. IF storms do get going north of the current watch area,
at least sporadic severe hail (up to around half dollar size)
could easily materialize given healthy most-unstable CAPE up
around 3000 J/kg, although the damaging wind threat would probably
not be as high as in our south. Not necessarily sure that
possible severe development in our central/northern counties
would necessitate a northward expansion of the current Watch, but
it's a possibility that cannot be discounted.

2) On a positive note, if storms are able to fire up north of the
current Watch area, some counties that have been VERY DRY of late
(such as Adams/Hall/Hamilton etc.) could finally get their shot at
a halfway decent rain, but again, this is far from a "sure thing",
and that is why rain chances/PoPs have been limited to 50 percent
or less in this portions of our coverage area (CWA) for the time
being. Actual rain amounts in our CWA should largely favor 1" or
less, with anything higher an exception, so not overly-concerned
about flooding (except will need to watch parts of north central
KS that had heavy rain last night).

IN SUMMARY: Although the official Severe Thunderstorm Watch is
currently placed along/south of the state line, there are signs
that an isolated/spotty severe threat could extend farther north
late tonight into our central and even northern counties. In
theory, southern counties should stand the greatest damaging wind
threat, while counties farther north would have more of a spotty
large hail threat, but as if often the case with these nocturnal
summer events, details are not entirely clear cut, and both
wind/hail hazards (along with possible Watch expansion) will be
monitored closely. No matter how much (or how little) ends up
happening overnight, the vast majority of thunderstorm activity
within our CWA should be on the decline by roughly 4-5 AM, and
the main severe threat over by 3-4 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2020

A warm front lifted north across the local area this morning. This
front shifted the winds to the south and brought a few more clouds
to the region than previously anticipated. Thanks to the cloud
cover...temps have been slow to climb...but expect the clouds to
thin over the next couple of hours allowing temperatures to max
out near 90 in most spots as previously thought.

While there has been a stray shower just outside the local area
associated with this front...do not expect any additional
activity locally until later this evening when convection
developing to our southwest tracks across the heart of the local
area. While instability will peak around 00Z...any diurnally
driven thunderstorm activity is expected to remain near the
aforementioned surface boundary...and just outside our area to the
north/northwest as depicted by the HRRR and RAP. Later in the
night...expect an MCS coming out of Colorado to cross northwestern
Kansas and move across the local area during the overnight hours.
Model placement is still not completely certain...but expect this
MCS to roughly cross through the center of the local area. With a
modest amount of instability remaining overnight and some
enhancement from the LLJ...expect a few strong to marginally
severe storms to be possible...with large hail and strong
thunderstorm wind gusts being the main threat.

For Sunday...expect a period of dry and hot weather to begin
across the local area with highs topping out in the mid 90s by
afternoon...with a few sporadic heat index values near 100.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2020

Dry weather is anticipated to start the extended periods as while
there will be no shortage of instability across the local
area...there also will likely be nothing to trigger it along with
a decent CAP in place. As a result...borderline hot weather is
expected to continue both Monday and Tuesday with heat index
values both days again approaching 100.

As we transition into the evening hours Tuesday...models are in
fair agreement swinging a negatively tilted trough across the
region which could trigger some convection Tuesday evening. With
a very unstable airmass in place...if thunderstorms do develop
late Tuesday afternoon or evening...expect them to rapidly become
severe...and not surprisingly the SPC has parts of our area
highlighted in a potential for severe weather...and we will need
to continue to monitor this period.

Beyond Tuesday...southwesterly junky flow will continue through
the end of the week...with small chances for thunderstorms and
slightly cooler...yet seasonable...weather anticipated. Beyond
Friday...however...a large ridge of high pressure is forecast to
build across the plains...which could result in a prolonged period
of hot and dry weather across the local area if it pans out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Monday)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020

Scattered thunderstorms are starting to develop on the low-level
jet, and a line of thunderstorms is approaching from the
southwest. These storms are likely to impact at EAR and GRI areas
within the 07-10Z timeframe. Strong winds and hail are possible in
the strongest storms.

After 10Z storms will start to clear and skies will clear as we
head into the morning.

Winds will become southerly on Sunday with gusts in the 20-25kt
range in the afternoon.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Pfannkuch
SHORT TERM...Rossi
LONG TERM...Rossi
AVIATION...Mangels

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Hastings NE
839 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2020

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
281200-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
839 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Overnight.

At least isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity is expected
within much of the outlook area, with storms expected to peak in
coverage and intensity mainly between 11 PM and 4 AM, during which
time some could be severe. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in
effect for several counties mainly along and south of the
Nebraska-Kansas border, but at least limited severe activity
could also affect counties outside the official Watch area. The
primary threats with most severe storms will be hail up to around
half dollar size and wind gusts to around 60 MPH. However, if
storms manage to form into a larger, organized complex, a threat
for damaging winds to around 70 MPH could materialize. Localized
heavy rainfall in excess of 1 inch is also possible in a few
spots, but this should be the exception, with most of the outlook
area receiving less.

In addition overnight, a Flood Warning remains in effect along
the Solomon River in Mitchell County Kansas, due to previous
heavy rain that fell Friday night into Saturday morning. Please
refer to the latest Flood Warning statement for further details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

A Flood Warning continues into Sunday for the Solomon River in
Mitchell County Kansas. Please refer to the latest Flood Warning
statement for further details.

On Tuesday, a small chance for thunderstorms returns to the
forecast area, a few of which could be severe. Additional small
chances for thunderstorms are anticipated across parts of the
local area Wednesday through Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed overnight in portions of the
outlook area.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Pfannkuch

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1231 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1147 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 W LOGAN               39.66N 99.58W
06/27/2020  M52 MPH          PHILLIPS           KS   MESONET

            MESONET STATION EW3001 LOGAN 1 W.

&&

MANGELS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1232 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020

NEZ061-062-074-075-280600-
Buffalo NE-Adams NE-Hall NE-Kearney NE-
1232 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN ADAMS...NORTHEASTERN
KEARNEY...SOUTHEASTERN BUFFALO AND SOUTHWESTERN HALL COUNTIES UNTIL
100 AM CDT...

At 1232 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Heartwell, or 17 miles southeast of Kearney, moving northeast at 25
mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Minden, Shelton, Kenesaw, Heartwell, Prosser and Norman.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 AM CDT for
south central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4040 9875 4053 9897 4081 9879 4070 9851
TIME...MOT...LOC 0532Z 209DEG 23KT 4055 9883

Billings Wright

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1245 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1235 AM     TSTM WND GST     3 E LOOMIS              40.48N 99.44W
06/28/2020  M53 MPH          PHELPS             NE   MESONET

            DAVIS WEATHERLINK STATION.

&&

MANGELS

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