Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
646 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

An upper level wave has brought lots of cloud cover, steady rain,
and some isolated thunderstorms the the area this morning. With
the better instability to our west, the strong storms that have
developed across the high plains have decreased in intensity as
they have approached our area. A few non severe storms were
currently impacting the KS/NE border region. That said, portions
of the area remain in a marginal risk for severe weather, and
would not be surprised if a strong to marginally severe storm is
able to develop across our KS counties through the early
afternoon. Other than storm chances, cloud cover and rain will be
the main story of the day, which will help to hold down
temperatures from their true potential, with most locations in
the 60s.

For tonight, expect clearing skies and high pressure building in
from the west to help temperatures drop into the upper 30s to
lower 40s, but remain well above critical thresholds.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

A fairly progressive and seasonably cool pattern is expected
across the local area through the extended periods as
northwesterly flow is persistent across the plains.

Expect brief ridging across the local area behind the departing
wave to persist through mid week, with temperatures moderating to
near normal. The ridging will be brief however, as another upper
level wave in northwesterly flow cross the region Thursday. With
modest instability around, could see a few thunderstorms
Thursday/Thursday night with drier air in its wake Friday and
Saturday. Behind this disturbance and cold front, expect below
normal temperatures to return for the end of the week, with lows
Thursday night Through Sunday morning currently forecast in the
30s. While a hard freeze does not appear likely, could see the
potential for a couple of frosty mornings, and will continue to
monitor for this potential over the coming days.

Otherwise, a second system in this progressive flow could bring a
few storms to the area Saturday night, but with limited
instability, have a hard time imagining any severe weather
potential at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Tuesday)
Issued at 209 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

SHRAs will continue at both terminals with occasionally MVFR
VSBYS in heavier rain over the next couple of hours...with winds
generally out of the southeast at less than 15 MPH through around
04/19-04/21. CIGS will eventually lower to MVFR levels as well as
a front makes its way down from the north later in the
day...bringing an end to precipitation along with a shift in winds
from the northwest. Overnight tonight...added some LLWS as strong
northerly winds aloft will have decoupled from surface winds
resulting in shear at both sites...although the main axis will be
closer to KGRI or slightly east of KGRI.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...NWS Hastings
LONG TERM...NWS Hastings
AVIATION...NWS Omaha

Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Hastings NE
Issued by National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
539 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
050915-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
539 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

A few thunderstorms will be possible through the afternoon hours
primarily south of Interstate 80. In addition, an isolated severe
storm with hail to the size of quarters and 60 mph wind gusts will
be possible along and south of the Kansas border.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Thunderstorm chances return to the area Thursday into Thursday
night, and again Saturday night. At this time, the probability for
severe weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will probably not be needed through tonight.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Rossi

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
640 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

KSZ018-019-041230-
Osborne KS-Mitchell KS-
640 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MITCHELL AND EASTERN OSBORNE
COUNTIES UNTIL 730 AM CDT...

At 640 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles north of Ellsworth to near Lucas to 7
miles north of Russell. Movement was northeast at 55 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Beloit, Downs, Cawker City, Glen Elder, Tipton, Asherville, Simpson,
Hunter, Scottsville and Victor.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 PM CDT for
north central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3957 9851 3956 9793 3922 9793 3922 9849
      3913 9849 3913 9894
TIME...MOT...LOC 1140Z 226DEG 50KT 3886 9828 3902 9849 3899 9881

Rossi