Severe Thunderstorm Warning 3, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
140 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

...WE ARE NOW MONITORING RADAR AS SCT TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

Plan to keep this brief to maximize availability for monitoring
radar.

Be sure to follow SPC SWOMCD's and any Watches as svr tstms could
occur before sunset.

Aloft: RAP tropopause analyses/WV imagery/aircraft wind obs
indicated a trof over the Wrn USA with a ridge over the GlfMex. A
potent shrtwv trof was embedded within the Wrn trof over CO and
lifting NE into NEB/KS. This trof will cross the CWA this eve.
Behind this trof...a minor shrtwv ridge will arrive by dawn Fri
with low-amplitude WSW flow evolving overhead Fri.

Surface: 998 mb low pres was along the CO-KS border with a strong
warm front extending ENE thru Srn NEB into IA. This front does
bisect the CWA just N of the KS state line. A strong cold front
was over the Nrn plns. This front will move S this afternoon. The
2 fronts will merge and the combined front will accelerate SE away
from the area this eve. The push will be provided by a strong
1040+ mb high over Cntrl Canada which is sinking S. This will
strengthen the pres grad over the rgn tonight. The low will weaken
and a new low will evolve over the GtLks tonight...while the high
sinks into the Nrn Plns. The high will remain there tomorrow.

Rest of this afternoon: Cldy N of the front and mostly sunny to
the S. Expect sct tstms to form espcly near the front. Some storms
could be svr. This will be a low CAPE/higher shear scenario.
Mainly looking like a hail and gusty wind type event. The risk of
a tornado is low as winds will be unidirectional in the warm
sector. Best shear will be on the cold side of the front.

Tonight: Rain changes to brief 3-6 hr period of snow as cold air
slams in here. Snow will essentially be done by midnight or
shortly thereafter. Windy! N winds 25-35 mph with G50. Rapid
clearing from N-S after midnight.

Fri: Sunny. Cold. Diminishing winds.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

Aloft: No change in the longwave pattern we've seen since mid
Nov...with a trof over the Wrn USA and a ridge over the E. This
will generally translate to continued low-amplitude WSW flow over
NEB/KS. A wk shrtwv trof is fcst to cross the rgn Mon night into
Tue. The last 2 runs of global mdls are in good agreement that the
flow will amplify some late next wk...with the flow turning SW
Thu as the Wrn trof becomes mobile and gets closer.

Surface: The Nrn Plns high will gradually move E thru the wknd
with return flow developing here. A wk cool front is fcst to move
thru Sun night. Multiple lows will then form over the Cntrl US/Can
Tue-Wed. The two that will probably affect the CWA will be Mon
night into Tue...with no cool air behind it...and then Wed night
and there will be a cooldown behind that low.

Temps: Normal daytime highs are low 50s. Temps will be at or
above normal thru next Thu...mostly above normal.

Precip: A couple chances for very light wintry mix or shwrs with
embedded non-svr tstms. Am holding off on much elaboration due to
impending tstm development this afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Friday)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

Significant Wx: IFR with sct +TSRA this afternoon.

This afternoon: IFR CIGs and variable VSBYs between MVFR and IFR.
Sct +TSRA are developing. Not sure either terminal takes a direct
hit...but it's psbl. NNE-N winds gradually incrs 25-35 kt.
Confidence: Medium

Tonight: IFR CIGs/VSBYs as rain changes to snow. Some wet accum
psbl before ending around midnight. De-icing will be required. N
winds increase to around 30 kt with G40-45 kt at times. Rapid
clearing and becoming VFR after midnight. Confidence: High

Fri thru 18Z: VFR. No clds at or below 10K ft. N winds gradually
diminish to 10-20 kt. Confidence: High

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM CDT Friday for NEZ039>041-046-
     047-060-061.

KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Kelley
LONG TERM...Kelley
AVIATION...Kelley

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Hastings NE
149 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
201900-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
149 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are likely this afternoon. A few storms
may be severe...producing hail up to the size of golfballs and
wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph.

Very low humidity levels and gusty winds will result in near
critical fire weather along and south of Kansas Highway 24.

Rain will change to snow tonight...and some minor accumulation is
possible roughly along and north of Highway 6 in south central
Nebraska. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect along and north
of a line from Lexington to Kearney to Saint Paul to Fullerton
where 1 to 2 inches of accumulation could occur.

North winds will increase to 25 to 35 MPH with gusts between 40
and 50 MPH likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is a slight chance for a few non-severe thunderstorms
Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed through early this evening.
Spotters and dispatchers...please relay any reports of hail or
wind damage to the National Weather Service.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Kelley

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
349 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

NEZ064-077-192115-
York NE-Fillmore NE-
349 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN YORK AND
NORTHWESTERN FILLMORE COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

At 349 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
south-southwest of Grafton, or 24 miles south of York, moving
northeast at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Grafton,McCool Junction, and Lushton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4046 9775 4048 9782 4054 9782 4081 9773
      4075 9748
TIME...MOT...LOC 2049Z 212DEG 28KT 4055 9777

Pfannkuch

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
353 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     HAIL             3 SW KEARNEY            40.67N 99.12W
03/19/2020  E0.25 INCH       BUFFALO            NE   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TRAFFIC CAMERA SHOWED HAIL COVERING I-80.
            EXACT SIZE UNKNOWN.

&&

KELLEY