Severe Thunderstorm Warning 182, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
405 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020

Another frustrating and humbling 24 hrs ahead, with more finicky
storm chances and poor model performance.

The set up...

There is a minor midlevel short wave with an associated sfc cold
front draped across our north. Currently we are looking at a very
similar set up to Friday. Convection has already started to fire up
along the front to our west and to our northeast. This is a bit
concerning already that we might see a split across our CWA where we
end up getting the shaft. Models certainly haven't had a good handle
on this, and still don't. The hi-res models and the GFS are rather
splotchy, and the 18Z HRRR does have it splitting around us. As far
as timing goes, best chances of seeing severe weather is between now
and 10pm. Tricky, trigger-happy events like this are to be expected
during the summer time under a northwest flow regime like this...but
that doesn't make it any less frustrating to forecast.

Regarding severe potential...

There is a severe thunderstorm watch in effect from now through 9pm
tonight. With favorable sfc and midlevel lapse rates, roughly 3k-4k
J/kg of CAPE, and 30-40 kts of shear, at least several strong if not
a few severe thunderstorms are possible. SPC has most of the area in
a slight risk except for the far southeast since storms are expected
to weaken and die off more by the time the front gets there. Severe
threats are expected to be up to tennis ball size hail and damaging
wind gusts to around 70mph.

Now for the rest of the particulars for today and tomorrow...

I did bump highs up a bit today given our recent trend of being just
slightly under done the last several days...though I was a bit
hesitant to do so, given the storm potential. Also brought dewpoints
up by a few degrees as well. For lows tonight, I kept fairly close
to the previous forecast, if not slightly warmer due to the
potential for heat loss to be mitigated by any storm cloud cover.
Tomorrow begins the start of a much quieter period with more
northerly flow aloft and northerly flow at the sfc. Expecting
modestly warm highs generally in the 80s and touching 90 in just a
few spots.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020

Admittedly since most of the time was spent working on the short
term, not a lot of focus was placed on the longer term. So
keeping things fairly generalized...

We look to be getting into a blocking pattern aloft where we are
sandwiched between an amplified ridge over the western CONUS and
a modest trof over the eastern CONUS. This will keep us in a
northerly flow regime aloft, and will also keep most of the week
dry. The only precip chances over the remainder of the 7-day
period are on Tuesday night and Thursday night. Tuesday is likely
the result of another minor midlevel short wave, and the PoPs
right now are below "likely" and will probably stay that way, but
at least this has been consistently in the forecast over the last
few days. Wednesday and Thursday look like they could be the
warmest days of the week, though not by much, with highs right
around 90 across the board. Thursday looks like repeat of Tuesday,
again with PoPs below "likely".

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Monday)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020

Main story today is the chance for a line of strong to severe
storms to form along a cold front this evening. As this cold front
dives south there is a fair chance for some heavy rain at the
terminals mainly before midnight. Then tomorrow morning models
are beginning to hint at the potential development of some fog or
low stratus, however confidence in this is low right now. This
will also be largely dependent on moisture deposited from any
storms that pass through tonight.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Shawkey
LONG TERM...Shawkey
AVIATION...Shawkey

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
306 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
172015-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
306 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

This afternoon into this evening, especially between 3 and 10 PM,
there is a chance for a few strong to severe thunderstorms to
develop along a weak cold front over Nebraska portions of the
area, and drift southward toward north central Kansas. Should any
severe storms get going, the primary threats would be hail up to
around tennis ball size, and wind gusts to around 70 MPH. By
sometime around midnight, storm activity should be over with for
the night.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Small chances for thunderstorms exist for portions of the outlook
area on Tuesday night and Thursday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon into this
evening, if severe storms manage to develop.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

SHAWKEY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
323 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020

KSZ017-162045-
Rooks KS-
323 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN ROOKS COUNTY UNTIL
345 PM CDT...

At 321 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Zurich, or 21 miles east of Hill City. This storm was nearly
stationary.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Plainville, Zurich and rural areas just north of Zurich.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
north central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3929 9959 3938 9953 3941 9942 3930 9921
      3920 9930 3913 9944 3913 9947
TIME...MOT...LOC 2021Z 316DEG 3KT 3930 9944

Wesely

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