Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
632 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

Starting to see a bit of convective development across our area
this afternoon. Expect to see showers and thunderstorms continue
to increase in coverage as we transition into the evening and
overnight hours...with a severe threat continuing mainly south of
the front which is visible on radar as of this afternoon. While
the severe threat will be mainly limited to areas south and east
of the tri-cities...increasing coverage of rainfall...especially
overnight...will lead to the potential for flash flooding across
the local area...as soils remain saturated and additional rainfall
totals of one to three inches are possible through Monday
afternoon.

While there is modest instability to work with for a few severe
storms this afternoon and early evening...expect the severe
potential to rapidly diminish tonight...with the focus then
shifting to the flash flooding potential. As moisture from the
south rides up and over the front across the area tonight...expect
rainfall to become widespread late in the night...with the
largest/heaviest accumulations expected just before sunrise
Monday.

Overall...Monday will not be the nicest day across the local area
as persistent cloud cover and continued chances for showers and
thunderstorms are anticipated through the afternoon
hours...helping hold afternoon temperatures down about 10 degrees
below normal. With instability also really waning across the area
during the day...limited thunderstorms to just an isolated
mention in the forecast...with most locations likely seeing more
clouds and light rain through the day than any thunderstorm
activity.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

Temperatures will creep back closer to normal on Tuesday as more
sun and less showers are observed across the local area. While
there will be some showers around...removed the mention of
thunderstorms as instability is very limited to non-existent. As
a low splits off the south...expect ridging to develop across the
intermountain west and nudge into the local area through the
remainder of the period...resulting in near to slightly above
normal temperatures and dry weather through the remainder of the
extended. The one exception will be Wednesday afternoon where some
small...non thunderstorm pops...were maintained during the
afternoon hours...but given the large scale pattern...would not be
surprised if this period becomes dry over the next couple of
model runs.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Tuesday)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

Increasing coverage of showers/storms and lowering ceilings will
be the primary concern for this TAF period. Isolated/scattered
storms have continued to develop over the last hour or so, a trend
that models show continuing through the rest of the
evening/overnight hours. Because both terminal sites are north of
the main surface frontal boundary, kept thunder mention as VC.
Models/guidance still showing the lowest ceilings occurring either
side of sunrise, and have IFR conditions developing. Ceilings
should lift some by mid-late morning, but am concerned that MVFR
conditions will linger through the afternoon.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Flash Flood Watch through Monday evening for NEZ039>041-046>049-
     060>064-072>077-082>087.

KS...Flash Flood Watch through Monday evening for KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

SHORT TERM...Rossi
LONG TERM...Rossi
AVIATION...ADP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
306 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
252015-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
306 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage
across the local area this afternoon and evening...some of which
could be severe. The best chance for strong to severe
thunderstorms will be along and east of a line extending from
Plainville, Kansas to York, Nebraska. Hail to the size of golf
balls and damaging winds to 60 mph are both possible. In
addition...an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out through the
early evening hours.

A flash flood watch is also in effect due to the potential for
heavy rainfall on already saturated soils. Please see the latest
flash flood watch message for additional details.

Finally...flood warnings remain in effect along portions of the
Little Blue River in Adams, Clay, Nuckolls and Thayer counties in
Nebraska. Additional information about these warnings can be
found in the latest flood statements.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Flood warnings will likely remain in effect into Monday along
portions of the Little Blue River in Adams, Clay, Nuckolls and
Thayer counties. Additional information about these warnings can
be found in the latest flood statements.

In addition...a flash flood watch remains in effect until Monday
evening due to the potential for heavy rainfall on top of already
saturated soils. Please see the latest flash flood watch message
for additional details.

Finally...thunderstorm chances continue across the entire area on
Memorial Day. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening for
areas along and east of a line extending from Plainville, Kansas
to York, Nebraska. Additionally, reports of flooding along area
roadways, streams and rivers would be appreciated.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Rossi

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
637 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

NEZ076-077-086-087-250000-
Thayer NE-Nuckolls NE-Clay NE-Fillmore NE-
637 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

...BRIEF LANDSPOUT TORNADOES POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH LINE OF
WEAK THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEASTERN CLAY...NORTHEASTERN
NUCKOLLS...SOUTHWESTERN FILLMORE AND NORTHWESTERN THAYER COUNTIES...

At 628 PM CDT, several reports of a funnel cloud and at least one
brief tornado was recieved from an area between Edgar and Davenport.

Although typically weaker and shorter lived than tornadoes
associated with organized supercell thunderstorms, landspout
tornadoes can still cause injury or minor damage. Landspouts develop
as a surface front or wind shift line interact with a towering
cumulus cloud or developing thunderstorms. Landspouts are not
usually associated with a wall cloud and are often difficult to
detect with weather radar.

If a landspout is sighted, first take any necessary tornado safety
precautions, and then report the landspout activity to the National
Weather Service in Hastings and local law enforcement.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
south central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4025 9782 4028 9800 4046 9781 4037 9767
TIME...MOT...LOC 2333Z 183DEG 5KT 4033 9786

Pfannkuch

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
649 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0626 PM     TORNADO          5 W DAVENPORT           40.32N 97.90W
05/24/2020                   NUCKOLLS           NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LANDSPOUT TORNADO REPORTED BY MULTIPLE
            SOURCES IN THE SEDAN AREA. FORMED UNDER A
            VERY WEAK THUNDERSTORM ALONG A SHARP SURFACE
            BOUNDARY.

&&

PFANNKUCH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
656 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

NEZ076-077-086-250045-
Nuckolls NE-Clay NE-Fillmore NE-
656 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

...BRIEF LANDSPOUT TORNADOES POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH LINE OF
WEAK THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEASTERN CLAY...CENTRAL NUCKOLLS AND
SOUTHWESTERN FILLMORE COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

Around 630 PM CDT, a brief landspout tornado occurred between Edgar
and Davenport. Other funnel clouds or brief tornadoes remain
possible along the same surface front during the next 45 minutes or
so.

Although typically weaker and shorter lived than tornadoes
associated with organized supercell thunderstorms, landspout
tornadoes can still cause injury or minor damage. Landspouts develop
as a surface front or wind shift line interact with a towering
cumulus cloud or developing thunderstorms. Landspouts are not
usually associated with a wall cloud, and are often difficult to
detect with weather radar.

If a landspout is sighted, first take any necessary tornado safety
precautions, and then report the landspout activity to the National
Weather Service in Hastings and local law enforcement.

LAT...LON 4035 9778 4035 9782 4030 9782 4001 9805
      4006 9827 4065 9787 4059 9758
TIME...MOT...LOC 2353Z 122DEG 5KT 4034 9789

Pfannkuch

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
800 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

NEZ085-086-250130-
Nuckolls NE-Webster NE-
800 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN NUCKOLLS COUNTY
UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

At 800 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Bostwick, or 35 miles northwest of Belleville, moving north at 15
mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bostwick.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
north central Kansas...and south central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4013 9808 4000 9815 4000 9833 4016 9824
TIME...MOT...LOC 0100Z 199DEG 11KT 4003 9825

Pfannkuch

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
805 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0626 PM     TORNADO          3 WNW DAVENPORT         40.33N 97.87W
05/24/2020                   NUCKOLLS           NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT FROM MULTIPLE COUNTIES
            REPORTED 5-10 COAL TRAIN CARS WERE DERAILED
            BETWEEN ROADS Y AND Z AND 4600 AND 4700
            ROADS. BASED ON OTHER REPORTS FROM SPOTTERS
            AND NUCKOLLS COUNTY DISPATCH, TORNADO WAS ON
            THE GROUND FROM APPROXIMATELY 6:26 THROUGH
            6:36 PM CDT.

&&