Severe Thunderstorm Warning 145, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
635 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 414 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2020

Heat has been the main issue today and it's right on track. Highs
reaching to the century mark and beyond in some instances with
dewpoints generally in the 70 to 75 degree range. Heat indices
above 100 are common across the area as of this issuance. The
front/wind shift is through Albion to Holdrege and southwest.
Winds are veering as the front approaches and the westerly
component is helping temps soar and for some who are far enough
behind the boundary...the dewpoints to drop some. Regardless, the
heat headline looks good with no changes, expecting it to expire
this evening. Some areas out west may be able to be let go early,
but will allow the next shift to watch and take care of it.

The thunderstorm concern for today has been the main question. The
high-res guidance has continued to show development along the
front since yesterday...but during the day today the development
has trended slightly later and further south than before. This
makes sense with the quicker frontal movement. The latest runs of
the HRRR and NAMNest have also trended the development to be more
along the KS/NE border and be closer to 00z for it entering the
forecast area. Instability is abundant...why wouldn't it be with
the heat and moisture we have, but shear remains marginal.

Thunderstorms are expected to move southeast with the front into
the evening and overnight hours...mainly impacting the southern
and southeast portions of the area. A question is how will the
overnight hours evolve in Nebraska. The latest HRRR runs indicate
that there is a potential for some development across
central/south central Nebraska towards Sunday morning.

Sunday:
What is going to happen Sunday? That is the question. Most models
indicate the potential for some scattered activity in the morning
hours and through the day, but confidence in any one solution is
low as they all are different for areal extent and location. So
covered it with low slight chances for now. The better chance for
thunderstorms Sunday will be Sunday night across much of the area.

With the frontal passage today, temps for Sunday will be much
cooler...highs in the 80s for most are expected.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 414 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2020

The first half of the work week remains under northwesterly upper
level flow aloft with weak disturbances moving across the area.
This will bring continued precipitation chances. Highs in the 80s
are expected.

Upper level ridging builds in for the second half of the work-
week. But the latest guidance indicates a decent disturbance
moving into the region late Wednesday into Thursday. This will
bring additional rain chances. Beyond that...while there are some
small chances in the forecast, think it will be dry for most.
Highs will begin to increase into the 90s for the remainder of the
work-week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Monday)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2020

The cold front is through both terminals as of this TAF issuance.
Winds are northerly and will briefly gust over 20-25kts. Further
behind the front winds will be 10-15kts and remain northerly until
early Sunday when they become more easterly. Some thunderstorms
are possible, but confidence in timing is low. Think the primary
concern in the short term is storms south of the front which
should keep the terminals dry...but later tonight into
Sunday...there are small chances throughout the whole period.
Because confidence is not overly high, have kept VCTS to a short
period in the TAFs tonight and they will need to be watched and
amended as necessary.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ048-049-062>064-
     073>077-082>087.

KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

SHORT TERM...Billings Wright
LONG TERM...Billings Wright
AVIATION...Billings Wright

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