Severe Thunderstorm Warning 111, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
659 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020

There are quite a few things to discuss for the short term, the
primary one being the storms expected tonight. The cold front
stationed off to the northwest will continue to move southeastward
across the area. The good news? the potential for much of the area
to receive some needed rain, along with some cooler temps by
tomorrow. The bad news? several of these storms could be severe
with the primary threats being wind and hail.

Convection is expected to begin developing with convergence along
the sfc frontal boundary late this afternoon/early this evening.
Models are consistent in depicting the development of more
organized/linear convection that begins as separate lines, one to
the north and one to the west, that then merge into one MCS. The
western boundary looks to be the more influential of the two and
will result in a more east to west push than was originally
anticipated. Timing is a little more difficult to nail down at the
moment. Successive model runs have been showing a later and later
onset, but the general brunt of the activity is still expected to
be between 7pm and 2am.

Regarding the overall severe threat, majority of the area is in an
SPC Enhanced Risk for severe weather. The main threats are damaging
wind and large hail. Severe risk will be the greatest earlier on in
the afternoon and evening. With 2k-3k J of SBCAPE and 30-35 kts of 0-
6 km shear, a few discrete cells and maybe a supercell or two are
possible initially, and will likely pose the greatest threat for
large hail. Then with the loss of daytime heating and a developing
cold pool, storm mode will become almost exclusively linear...taking
on more of a QLCS form. This will lead to the greater wind threat,
with the potential for storm winds to around 70 mph. Damaging winds
will pose the greatest risk and overall are the more dominating and
widespread threat.

Once the front has moved through Thursday should be mostly dry and
around 10 degrees cooler and in the mid 80s. There are a few weak
signals in a couple models suggesting some re-development may happen
Thursday evening, but this is more of an outlier and doesn't look to
be supported by much. Any major changes to PoPs for Thurs are going
to largely depend on how tonight plays out.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020

Since most of the focus is in the short term, this is a more broad
overview of the long term. A potent ridge is building over the
desert SW and will be the driving force behind weather over the next
several days. The main thing will be the continued heat.
Temperatures are expected to rebound back into the 90s by the end of
the weekend. The other effect of the ridge will be the shoddy PoPs
that are peppered throughout the week. With the the ridge being
located over the desert SW, any short waves that come over the ridge
will likely pass right through the Central Plains along with
accompanying MCS activity. This looks to be a possibility on
Saturday morning, as a short wave rounds over the top of the ridge
and then dives south through central NE. The remainder of the long
term looks mostly dry, though this could easily change with any
small perturbations or short waves that may develop.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Friday)
Issued at 656 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020

Main problem will be timing of potential thunderstorms tonight.
Most models have been too quick with progression of thunderstorm
activity this evening. Some models also indicate at least a few
hours of low-level wind shear (LLWS) overnight, but since
thunderstorms may be ongoing, I opted to keep this out of the
forecast for now.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Shawkey
LONG TERM...Shawkey
AVIATION...Heinlein

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1012 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
091200-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
1012 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Severe thunderstorms are expected into the overnight hours with
damaging winds of 70 mph the primary hazard. A few storms could
produce large hail the size of half dollars and an isolated
tornado cannot be ruled out. In addition, heavy rainfall may
accompany the storms and lead to localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Periodic chances for thunderstorms are in the forecast for most
of the period. Predictability is low regarding severe weather
chances.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any severe weather tonight.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

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