Red Flag Warning 9, NWS Hastings, NE

147 
WWUS83 KGID 280941
RFWGID

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Hastings NE
441 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020

KSZ005-006-017-018-NEZ039-040-046-047-060>062-072>075-082>085-
281800-
/O.CON.KGID.FW.W.0009.200428T1700Z-200429T0100Z/
Phillips-Smith-Rooks-Osborne-Valley-Greeley-Sherman-Howard-Dawson-
Buffalo-Hall-Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-
441 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT
THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 005, 006, 017, 018, 039, 040, 046, 047, 060, 061, 062, 072,
073, 074, 075, 082, 083, 084 AND 085...

* AFFECTED AREA...In Kansas, Fire Weather Zone 005 Phillips, 
  Fire Weather Zone 006 Smith, Fire Weather Zone 017 Rooks and 
  Fire Weather Zone 018 Osborne. In Nebraska, Fire Weather Zone 
  039 Valley, Fire Weather Zone 040 Greeley, Fire Weather Zone 
  046 Sherman, Fire Weather Zone 047 Howard, Fire Weather Zone 
  060 Dawson, Fire Weather Zone 061 Buffalo, Fire Weather Zone 
  062 Hall, Fire Weather Zone 072 Gosper, Fire Weather Zone 073 
  Phelps, Fire Weather Zone 074 Kearney, Fire Weather Zone 075 
  Adams, Fire Weather Zone 082 Furnas, Fire Weather Zone 083 
  Harlan, Fire Weather Zone 084 Franklin and Fire Weather Zone 
  085 Webster.

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts around 40 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 20 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will be difficult to control. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended. Use extreme caution if 
  engaging in activities that could start a fire.

* ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...Isolated showers and thunderstorms are
  also possible this afternoon. This may lead erratic winds and 
  locally higher gusts in some locations.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

021 
WWUS83 KGID 281018 CCA
RFWGID

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Hastings NE
518 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020

KSZ005-006-017-018-NEZ039-040-046-047-060>062-072>075-082>085-
281800-
/O.COR.KGID.FW.W.0009.200428T1700Z-200429T0100Z/
Phillips-Smith-Rooks-Osborne-Valley-Greeley-Sherman-Howard-Dawson-
Buffalo-Hall-Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-
518 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT
THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 005, 006, 017, 018, 039, 040, 046, 047, 060, 061, 062, 072,
073, 074, 075, 082, 083, 084 AND 085...

* AFFECTED AREA...In Kansas, Fire Weather Zone 005 Phillips, 
  Fire Weather Zone 006 Smith, Fire Weather Zone 017 Rooks and 
  Fire Weather Zone 018 Osborne. In Nebraska, Fire Weather Zone 
  039 Valley, Fire Weather Zone 040 Greeley, Fire Weather Zone 
  046 Sherman, Fire Weather Zone 047 Howard, Fire Weather Zone 
  060 Dawson, Fire Weather Zone 061 Buffalo, Fire Weather Zone 
  062 Hall, Fire Weather Zone 072 Gosper, Fire Weather Zone 073 
  Phelps, Fire Weather Zone 074 Kearney, Fire Weather Zone 075 
  Adams, Fire Weather Zone 082 Furnas, Fire Weather Zone 083 
  Harlan, Fire Weather Zone 084 Franklin and Fire Weather Zone 
  085 Webster.

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts around 40 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 20 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will be difficult to control. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended. Use extreme caution if 
  engaging in activities that could start a fire.

* ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...Isolated showers and thunderstorms are
  also possible this afternoon. This may lead to erratic winds 
  and locally higher gusts in some locations.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

242 
WWUS83 KGID 281741
RFWGID

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1241 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020

KSZ005-006-017-018-NEZ039-040-046-047-060>062-072>075-082>085-
290100-
/O.CON.KGID.FW.W.0009.000000T0000Z-200429T0100Z/
Phillips-Smith-Rooks-Osborne-Valley-Greeley-Sherman-Howard-Dawson-
Buffalo-Hall-Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-
1241 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 005,
006, 017, 018, 039, 040, 046, 047, 060, 061, 062, 072, 073, 074,
075, 082, 083, 084 AND 085...

* AFFECTED AREA...In Kansas, Fire Weather Zone 005 Phillips, Fire
  Weather Zone 006 Smith, Fire Weather Zone 017 Rooks and Fire
  Weather Zone 018 Osborne. In Nebraska, Fire Weather Zone 039
  Valley, Fire Weather Zone 040 Greeley, Fire Weather Zone 046
  Sherman, Fire Weather Zone 047 Howard, Fire Weather Zone 060
  Dawson, Fire Weather Zone 061 Buffalo, Fire Weather Zone 062
  Hall, Fire Weather Zone 072 Gosper, Fire Weather Zone 073
  Phelps, Fire Weather Zone 074 Kearney, Fire Weather Zone 075
  Adams, Fire Weather Zone 082 Furnas, Fire Weather Zone 083
  Harlan, Fire Weather Zone 084 Franklin and Fire Weather Zone 085
  Webster.

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 30 mph with widespread gusts around 45 
  mph. Localized wind gusts in the 50 to 60 MPH range are possible
  in and near any thunderstorms that develop.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 20 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will be difficult to control. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended. Use extreme caution if 
  engaging in activities that could start a fire.

* ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...Isolated showers and thunderstorms are
  also expected this afternoon. This may lead to erratic winds and
  locally higher gusts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

641 
WWUS83 KGID 281859
RFWGID

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Hastings NE
159 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020

NEZ060-072-082-290300-
/O.NEW.KGID.FW.A.0003.200429T1800Z-200430T0000Z/
/O.CON.KGID.FW.W.0009.000000T0000Z-200429T0100Z/
Dawson-Gosper-Furnas-
159 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 060,
072 AND 082...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 060, 072 AND 082...

The National Weather Service in Hastings has issued a Fire 
Weather Watch, which is in effect from Wednesday afternoon 
through Wednesday evening. A Red Flag Warning also remains in 
effect until 8 PM this evening. 

* AFFECTED AREA...In Nebraska, Fire Weather Zone 060 Dawson, 
  Fire Weather Zone 072 Gosper and Fire Weather Zone 082 Furnas.

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 30 mph with widespread gusts around 45
  mph this afternoon. On Wednesday, winds will be 15 to 25 MPH
  with gusts to around 30 MPH. 

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 20 percent both this afternoon and
  tomorrow afternoon.
  

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will be difficult to control. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended. Use extreme caution if 
  engaging in activities that could start a fire.

* ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...Isolated showers and thunderstorms 
  are also expected this afternoon. This may lead to erratic 
  winds and locally higher gusts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

KSZ005-006-017-018-NEZ039-040-046-047-061-062-073>075-083>085-
290100-
/O.CON.KGID.FW.W.0009.000000T0000Z-200429T0100Z/
Phillips-Smith-Rooks-Osborne-Valley-Greeley-Sherman-Howard-
Buffalo-Hall-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Harlan-Franklin-Webster-
159 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 005,
006, 017, 018, 039, 040, 046, 047, 061, 062, 073, 074, 075, 083,
084 AND 085...

* AFFECTED AREA...In Kansas, Fire Weather Zone 005 Phillips, 
  Fire Weather Zone 006 Smith, Fire Weather Zone 017 Rooks and 
  Fire Weather Zone 018 Osborne. In Nebraska, Fire Weather Zone 
  039 Valley, Fire Weather Zone 040 Greeley, Fire Weather Zone 
  046 Sherman, Fire Weather Zone 047 Howard, Fire Weather Zone 
  061 Buffalo, Fire Weather Zone 062 Hall, Fire Weather Zone 073 
  Phelps, Fire Weather Zone 074 Kearney, Fire Weather Zone 075 
  Adams, Fire Weather Zone 083 Harlan, Fire Weather Zone 084 
  Franklin and Fire Weather Zone 085 Webster.

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 30 mph with widespread gusts around 45
  mph this afternoon.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 20 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will be difficult to control. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended. Use extreme caution if 
  engaging in activities that could start a fire.

* ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...Isolated showers and thunderstorms 
  are also expected this afternoon. This may lead to erratic 
  winds and locally higher gusts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

438 
WWUS83 KGID 290111
RFWGID

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Hastings NE
811 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020

NEZ060-072-082-290915-
/O.EXP.KGID.FW.W.0009.000000T0000Z-200429T0100Z/
/O.CON.KGID.FW.A.0003.200429T1800Z-200430T0000Z/
Dawson-Gosper-Furnas-
811 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 060, 072 AND 082...
...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 060, 072 AND 082...

* AFFECTED AREA...For Wednesday, In Nebraska, Fire Weather Zone 
  060 Dawson, Fire Weather Zone 072 Gosper and Fire Weather Zone 
  082 Furnas.

* WINDS...For Wednesday, Northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 
  35 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...For Wednesday, As low as 18 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will be difficult to control. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended. Use extreme caution if 
  engaging in activities that could start a fire.



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

KSZ005-006-017-018-NEZ039-040-046-047-061-062-073>075-083>085-
290215-
/O.EXP.KGID.FW.W.0009.000000T0000Z-200429T0100Z/
Phillips-Smith-Rooks-Osborne-Valley-Greeley-Sherman-Howard-
Buffalo-Hall-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Harlan-Franklin-Webster-
811 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 005, 006, 017, 018, 039, 040,
046, 047, 061, 062, 073, 074, 075, 083, 084 AND 085...

Fire weather conditions have improved. Therefore the Red Flag
Warning was allowed to expire.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1236 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 545 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2020

Starting off with some highlights for the entire 7-day forecast:

1) Precipitation-wise, the majority of the next week is looking
relatively dry. The only official chances for measurable rain are
currently late tonight into Tues AM, and then not until the
weekend. Both of these time frames carry their own uncertainties,
but at this point odds seem decent that most of our coverage area
(CWA) will fail to measure more than one-quarter inch of total
weekly precipitation (higher exceptions possible of course in
thunderstorms).

2) Temperature-wise, this next week (as a whole) will average
quite warm for late-April/early-May, on the order of 10 degrees
above! This means plenty of highs in the 70s/80s and lows mainly
well into the 40s/50s (maybe even a few 90s in southwestern zones
for Friday?). As a result, there is essentially zero concern for
freezing temps through at least the next week, and frost appears
quite unlikely as well (unless Wed night trends several degrees
colder).

3) From a hazardous weather perspective, unless we end up being
surprised late tonight/Tues AM by a rogue feisty storm, we will
most likely get through the entire month of April without issuing
a single convective warning (this is fairly uncommon)! As for
storm chances next weekend (early May be then), it's still way too
early to put much stock in the details, but very early
indications suggest some stronger storms may be possible.

4) Fire weather remains a legitimate concern for especially
Tues/Wed afternoons given low RH/fairly strong north-northwest
winds. Please refer to the separate Fire Weather section below
for any further discussion of this topic.

Taking a look at the current/recent weather scene as of 430 AM:

No big surprises overnight, as our rain/thunderstorm coverage sure
enough ended up being VERY limited (as was largely expected). The
main swath of weak thunderstorm activity (long since ended)
tracked across portions of our KS zones, where a few tiny rain
showers are actually still bubbling up every now and then.
Meanwhile, the vast majority of our Nebraska area remained dry, as
convection instead fired slightly to our east within the nose/exit
region of the low level jet, and marched eastward from there. On
the larger scale, this activity was driven by a low-amplitude wave
sliding through the prevailing west-northwest flow aloft. At the
surface overnight, gusty southerly winds last evening have eased
quite a bit as a weak trough axis (not a true cold front) has
slipped into the area, with most places currently reporting a
southwesterly breeze around 10 MPH or less. Temp-wise, lows are on
track to hold up a solid 10-15 degrees above yesterday, with most
places bottoming out somewhere in the 47-54 range.

Now focusing solely on these first 48 hours in the remainder of
this Short Term section, the main stories are:

1) By many folk's definition, today will be an absolutely
spectacular spring day (sunny/very warm/light wind), with
widespread highs in the low-mid 80s.

2) Very late tonight into Tues AM there will be a chance for
passing showers, fairly weak thunderstorms. However, as has been
the case for the past several days, there remains uncertainty
regarding this activity will be on the spotty or more widespread
side. Although have at least a basic "slight chance" all areas,
current model consensus favors fairly sparse coverage (perhaps
slightly better north/east of the Tri Cities?).

3) Although still quite mild temp-wise, Tuesday will be a
completely different animal in the wind department, with fairly
strong north-northwest winds gusting well into the 30-40 MPH
range. Also, while not really reflected in our official forecast
yet, there are increasing signs that Tues afternoon may soon
require some chances for passing rain showers/weak storms (for now
have at least introduced sprinkle potential).

Now going into more detail on these first 48 hrs/4 periods...

Today:
As mentioned, today will simply be a very enjoyable/very warm
weather day in the opinion of most. Once the last of the
pesky/very light showers depart our KS zones in the next 1-2
hours, the entire CWA is all but guaranteed a dry, warm and very
sunny day, with in fact very minimal cloud cover whatsoever, as we
reside "in between" disturbances aloft. At the surface, enjoy
today's light winds because days like this are relatively rare in
the spring! Although not dead calm (of course), speeds most of
today will average only 5-10 MPH with even gusts mainly under 15
MPH. Direction will be somewhat variable, but generally undergoing
a gradual transition from westerly, to northerly to easterly for
most areas as the trough axis/weak front essentially "washes out"
over us. As for high temps, although most models/guidance suggest
we may be "overdoing it" slightly, made very little change to the
warmer values that previous forecaster put in, as the mild start and
full sunshine should result in widespread highs mainly in the
81-85 range.

This evening/tonight:
High confidence in a continued dry forecast through at least
midnight, with only a gradual increase in southerly breezes this
evening ahead of the next/stronger disturbance approaching from
the west-northwest. Then, late in the night into early Tuesday
morning, chances for at least spotty showers/storms enter the
picture as forcing increases aloft and a surface cold front sweeps
in. Unfortunately, models continue to show some disparity
regarding the ultimate coverage/likelihood of this activity, with
the latest ECMWF pretty much completely dry, while the NAM is a
bit more generous with coverage, especially in our northeast
zones. No matter how much (or more likely how little) happens,
severe storm concerns are quite minimal given the expectation of
no more than a few hundred J/KG of elevated instability. However,
small hail or even some gusty winds cannot be ruled out. Given the
fairly widepsread clouds and steady breezes, lows tonight will be
5+ degrees warmer than those this morning, with most places aimed
well up into the 53-58 range.

Tuesday daytime:
Already by sunrise, northwest winds will be picking up in our far
northwest, with these stronger winds then slated to quickly
overspread the rest of the area by mid-late morning. In general,
expect several hours of sustained speeds 15-25 MPH/frequent gusts
30-40 MPH, more than enough to drive the fire weather concerns
covered below. Precipitation-wise, lingered small chances for
showers/weak storms in far east-southeast zones for the morning,
but most areas should be dry by then (if they ever see anything in
the first place). The bigger question mark is whether the combo of
colder air aloft and deep mixing along the southern periphery of a
reinforcing shortwave trough dropping in from the north-northwest
will promote at least isolated to perhaps scattered showers/weak
storms during the heating of the afternoon/early evening. Over the
past 24 hours, various models (ECMWF/NAM/GFS) seem to be showing
this scenario as increasingly-likely. In our official forecast, we
have not really "ramped up" to this scenario quite yet, but at
least to get the ball rolling this direction, have introduced a
basic "slight chance of sprinkles" to much of the CWA to at least
imply that the afternoon may not be truly dry. However, would look
for PoPs/rain chances to increase somewhat in later forecasts.
Temp-wise, highs only look to drop off about 5-8 degrees from
today's values, with most areas still well into the mid 70s to
around 80.

Tuesday night:
At least for now, this is advertised as a dry-but-breezy night,
although per previous paragraph later forecasts may need to linger
some rain shower activity into at least the first part of the
evening (mainly before 10 PM). Otherwise, fairly high confidence
in a dry late-night period, as we reside under sharp north-
northwesterly flow aloft on the backside of a deepening mid level
low expected to be centered over IA/MO by sunrise Wednesday.
Although not quite as strong as the daytime winds due to shallower
mixing, the pressure gradient along will keep gusts solidly 20-30
MPH going all through the night. These winds will obviously keep
temps from dropping off too far, but lows should still end up
roughly 10 degrees cooler than tonight simply due to a cooler
airmass, with most areas mid-upper 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 545 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2020

General overview of this 5-day period:
The main story is that this time frame starts out pretty much
guaranteed dry for at least Wed-Fri as broad/expansive upper
level ridging moves in from the west and overspreads the Plains.
The main question is then how long this dry stretch lasts? Per the
preferred ECMWF solution, we could easily remain dry until
Saturday night. However, the GFS is a slightly faster to break
down/flatten the ridging, with rain chances perhaps returning as
early as early Saturday morning/daytime. Overall though, model
consensus points to halfway decent shower/thunderstorm chances
centered around Saturday night, with early suggestions of at least
some strong (maybe not necessarily severe?) activity. Again
though, the main message is that at least "some" chance for rain
returns over the weekend, with plenty of details to iron out.

Temperature-wise, although averaging out solidly-above normal as a
whole, there does look to be a minor roller-coaster ride, with
highs starting out only around 70 degrees most areas Wednesday
(this has been trending cooler), but then soaring well into the
mid-upper 80s by Friday as the intensity of the upper ridge peaks
(maybe even some low 90s southwest!). Then, as the ridge breaks
down and a surface cold front goes through, we are very
preliminarily calling for highs well back down into the 70s by
Sunday. As for lows, most nights well above normal in the 40s/50s
with zero freeze concerns. However, Wed night is gradually
trending a bit colder given the expectation of light winds. We
currently still have most areas holding up into the low 40s, but
especially favored colder spots (such as Ord) could perhaps end up
trending toward the mid-30s as this gets closer in time, which
could bring a touch of patchy frost into play for a few spots
(something to watch).

Otherwise, one other item of note is that Wednesday will feature
another round of fairly strong north-northwest winds, with near-
critical to perhaps critical fire weather in play (see below for
more).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Tuesday)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2020

VFR conditions expected through the period, but there are a
couple things to keep an eye on in this forecast.

1.) Isolated showers thunderstorms early Tuesday morning,
especially 09-12Z. Confidence is not high enough for anything
other than a VCTS mention at this point.

2.) Frontal passage Tuesday morning. This will impact the TAF
sites 12-14Z, causing winds to shift to the northwest, with gusts
of 25kts in the morning...likely followed by 30kt+ gusts in the
afternoon.

3.) Additional showers/thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon. This is
just outside of the TAF window for now, but confidence is
increasing in at least a few showers/storms again in the
afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 545 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2020

At least near-critical conditions are likely within particularly
western/southwestern portions of the CWA each afternoon Tuesday-
Thursday, with Tues/Wed currently carrying the greatest concern
for potentially outright-critical conditions due to fairly strong
north-northwest winds. While winds will be quite gusty area-wide,
at least for now, only a handful of southwestern counties (mainly
southwest of an Elwood-Osborne KS line) are technically expected
to reach afternoon relative humidity (RH) values of 20 percent or
lower (our critical criteria), and thus promoting
possible/eventual Warning issuance.

This would all seem fairly straightforward if not for the fact
that much of the area is at least into the beginning stages of
spring green-up, with vegetation/grasses gradually becoming less
prone to widespread fire growth. As a result, there is currently
some uncertainty with our "fuel status" regarding whether
Warnings may actually be warranted. Our current game-plan is to
hopefully communicate with local fire weather partners during the
next 24 hours and get a better handle on whether vegetation/grasses
are "yes/no" for potential Warning issuance for Tues-Wed
afternoons. No matter whether we end up with Warnings or not, the
bottom line is that at least solidly-near-critical conditions
will exist, especially in our far southwestern counties. Stay
tuned...

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Pfannkuch
LONG TERM...Pfannkuch
AVIATION...Mangels
FIRE WEATHER...Pfannkuch

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
402 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2020

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
281200-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
402 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Very late tonight into early Tuesday morning, a few thunderstorms
are possible almost anywhere in the outlook area, but with the
overall-best chances favoring areas north and east of the Nebraska
Tri Cities. Severe storms are not expected, but a few instances of
small hail and gusty winds cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Each afternoon between Tuesday and Thursday, the combination of
low relative humidity and gusty winds will promote at least near-
critical fire weather conditions across much of the outlook area.
Tuesday and Wednesday carry the overall-greatest concern due to
featuring the strongest winds, with critical conditions possible
for areas mainly southwest of a line from Elwood Nebraska to
Osborne Kansas.

From Saturday into Sunday, thunderstorm chances return to various
portions of the outlook area,

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation should not be needed through tonight.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Pfannkuch