Flash Flood Warning 8, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
646 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 646 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020

Updated the forecasted QPF to shift the heaviest rain axis a bit
further south as observations/trends have panned out. Overall
radar trends with the heaviest rain are about a county or so
south than earlier thought. Still mainly Hebron, NE to
Phillipsburg, KS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020

A cold frontal boundary crossing through Nebraska today will provide
the focus for another round of showers and thunderstorms later this
afternoon through tonight...primarily across our southern zones with
the front expected to orient from our southeast Neb Counties to
our western KS counties by evening. There will be plenty of
instability around with ML CAPES 2500-3000 j/g along and south of
the front, but overall shear remains weak...up to 20-25kts. With
shear lacking, not looking for much of a severe threat, but cannot
rule out the potential for damaging winds.

Heavy rain/hydro...of bigger concern with storms tonight is the
heavy rain and flooding potential. As has been mentioned for several
shifts now, moisture availability is abundant with surface
dewpoints in the low/mid 70s, precipitable water values are around
2" which are three standard deviations above normal and in the upper
90th percentile. With weak flow aloft, storm motion will be slow
at the onset of storm development and training of efficient rain
producing storms is expected, which are likely to produce rainfall
rates of an inch per hour and higher rainfall rates are also
possible. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect from this aftn
into Monday morning for north central Kansas and our southeast Neb
counties where the heaviest rain is expected to occur. The heavy
rainfall may cause areas of flash flooding and rapid rises in
rivers and streams from heavy rain runoff. The heaviest rain is
expected to impact to primarily impact portions of the Little
Blue, Republican and Solomon River basins.

Storms...convection has been ongoing across eastern Nebraska
today with some new development across western KS. Radar is
picking up on a few outflow boundaries and while the cold front
will be the main focus for storms...residual boundaries may
provide an additional storm focus. Storms are expected to increase
in coverage heading into this evening...continue through the
overnight hours and into the day on Monday. While the brunt of
the storms are expected to orient along/south of Highway 6, latest
high resolution models suggest the potential for new development
for elevated storms along/north of I80 after dark (along the
elevated frontal boundary). These storms will also be capable of
producing very heavy rainfall and would lead to multiple rounds of
storms/heavy rain as this next area of development moves
southeast and could contribute to additional potential
flooding/hydro issues.

On Monday there is still some model uncertainty on when convection
will depart our southern zones, with latest trends indicating storms
may linger thru the morning in north central Kansas. Once the storms
depart, dry weather is expected the remainder of the day with
noticeably cooler post frontal temperatures with highs mainly in the
low 80s and lower dps primarily in the 60s...quite a change from the
last several days.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020

Have some low pops in our southern zones for Tuesday as a system
tracks across KS/southern plains with our north central Kansas
counties on the northern edge of the activity. Tuesday night into
Wednesday...convection is expected to develop to our west with a
lead shortwave moving out of CO across KS while a closed mid level
low reaches WY. Have some isolated to scattered pops in the forecast
if any of this western convection is able to sustain this far east
overnight. Precip chances are looking more promising
Wednesday/Thursday as the western closed low meanders southeast
across Neb into KS later this week. There are some models
differences in timing and if system slows any further, then precip
could linger longer into Friday. The 12Z ECMWF advertises a fairly
widespread precip and potentially prolonged precip event with
this closed system and something to monitor. Behind this
system...heights rise across our region heading into next weekend
as an upper ridge axis builds north from the desert southwest and
precip chances trend down.

As far as temperatures...most days will see highs in the low/mid 80s
but clouds/precip with the system later this week could keep highs
in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Tuesday)
Issued at 646 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020

The primary concern for aviation is the rain and thunderstorms
into the overnight hours. The front is through both terminals, so
winds are light and northerly. The High-res guidance continues to
develop thunderstorms along the I-80 corridor later this evening
into the overnight hours along the elevated frontal boundary. This
would impact both terminals with MVFR to IFR ceilings/visibility.
Have tempo groups at both terminals to account for thunderstorms,
and that may need to be updated to a prevailing category vs. VCTS
and will be amended as necessary. Rain/thunderstorms should end
during the overnight hours. Winds will become more easterly during
the day tomorrow, and skies are expected to scatter and become
VFR towards morning.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for NEZ076-077-085>087.

KS...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

UPDATE...Billings Wright
SHORT TERM...Fay
LONG TERM...Fay
AVIATION...Billings Wright

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
335 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ076-077-085>087-271200-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Clay-Fillmore-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
335 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Kansas and locations in south central Nebraska along and south of
a line from Red Cloud to Clay Center to Geneva.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect tonight into Monday morning for
the potential for heavy rain and flooding from thunderstorms.
Please see the Flash Flood message for further information.

A few strong to possibly severe storms are possible mainly this
evening and the storms could produce damaging winds of 60 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Thunderstorm chances continue into Monday and a Flash Flood Watch
remains in effect until mid morning Monday. Please see the Flash
Flood Watch message for further information.

Additional chances for thunderstorms are possible across portions
of the outlook area Tuesday afternoon through Friday night...and
again late Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this this evening into tonight
and spotters are encouraged to report rainfall amounts and any
flooding.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>075-082>084-271200-
Valley-Greeley-Nance-Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-
Hall-Hamilton-York-Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Furnas-Harlan-
Franklin-
335 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska north
of a line from Red Cloud to Clay Center to Geneva.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A few strong to possibly severe storms are possible mainly this
evening and the storms could produce damaging winds of 60 mph.
The storms will also be capable of producing heavy rainfall of 1
to 2 inches and locally higher amounts are possible. Heavy
rainfall in a short period of time could lead to areas of
flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Thunderstorm chances continue into Monday morning, mainly near the
Nebraska and Kansas stateline. Additional chances for thunderstorms
are possible across portions of the outlook area Tuesday
afternoon through Friday night...and again late Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening and spotters are
also encouraged to report rainfall totals and any flooding.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
655 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020

KSZ019-270045-
Mitchell KS-
655 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN MITCHELL COUNTY
UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

At 654 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Beloit, moving northeast at 10 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Beloit and Scottsville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3931 9825 3945 9833 3957 9818 3957 9793
      3945 9793 3931 9812
TIME...MOT...LOC 2354Z 218DEG 10KT 3943 9816

Mangels

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
657 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0639 PM     TSTM WND GST     9 NE VICTOR             39.33N 98.15W
07/26/2020  M56 MPH          MITCHELL           KS   MESONET

            STATION KKSBELOI1.

&&

MANGELS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
658 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     HEAVY RAIN       9 ENE NATOMA            39.24N 98.87W
07/26/2020  M5.30 INCH       OSBORNE            KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

            STORM TOTAL THUS FAR. WATER IN BASEMENT.
            SEVERAL INCHES OF WATER FLOWING OVER ROAD.

&&

THIES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
659 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0658 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NW SUPERIOR           40.03N 98.08W
07/26/2020  M2.80 INCH       NUCKOLLS           NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

            STORM TOTAL SO FAR.

&&

MANGELS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
701 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 WSW RUSKIN            40.13N 97.91W
07/26/2020  M3.09 INCH       NUCKOLLS           NE   MESONET

            DAVIS WEATHERLINK STATION. STORM TOTAL RAIN
            SO FAR.

&&

MANGELS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
707 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0706 PM     HEAVY RAIN       SUPERIOR                40.03N 98.07W
07/26/2020  M3.20 INCH       NUCKOLLS           NE   MESONET

            STATION KNESUPER1.

&&

MANGELS