Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS Glasgow, MT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
257 PM MDT Fri Jul 24 2020

.DISCUSSION...

General area of surface low pressure and instability remain across
the region with higher dewpoints (mid 60s) in our eastern zones.
As such, the threat for thunderstorms continue this afternoon and
evening, although likely not quite a strong as yesterday's storms.

Early this afternoon, thunderstorms have begun to develop over the
Cypress Hills, northwest of our CWA, and the Black Hills, way
southeast of our CWA. Chose to follow the slim model agreement I
could find for precipitation here locally for now through
overnight tonight, with some models showing more than others.
Some nocturnal storms may linger through the morning hours on
Saturday through our central CWA.

By Saturday night, the upper-level low pressure trough departs
toward the northeast, as NW aloft returns to our region.
Temperatures will cool to more normal levels for this time of
year.

Sunday through Tuesday mid day, a moderately strong and dry ridge
of high pressure will allow high temperatures to return to the
90s more most locations.

A mid-ridge disturbance will cut into the flow aloft beginning late
Tuesday for more chances of thunderstorms through the remainder of
the week.

&&

.AVIATION...

Expected Flight Category: Mainly VFR.

Synopsis: A mix of mid and high clouds will eventually form into
scattered showers and thunderstorms this evening through the
overnight hours, ahead of an approaching cold front. Brief IFR
conditions are possible if a storm happens to pass directly over a
TAF site.

Winds: Light from the west this afternoon become light and
variable tonight. With the arrival of the cold front finally by
Saturday morning, more widespread winds from the northeast at 10
to 15 kts will prevail through most of the day on Saturday.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

weather.gov/glasgow