Tornado Warning 18, NWS Fort Worth, TX

147 
WWUS54 KFWD 190745
SVSFWD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
245 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

TXC429-190800-
/O.CON.KFWD.TO.W.0018.000000T0000Z-200319T0800Z/
Stephens TX-
245 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT FOR NORTHERN
STEPHENS COUNTY...
    
At 244 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Crystal Falls, or 7 miles north of Breckenridge,
moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and two inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
northern Stephens County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a
vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter now!  Get to an
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building and avoid
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3280 9899 3292 9905 3296 9899 3296 9865
      3293 9864 3289 9864 3286 9872
TIME...MOT...LOC 0744Z 243DEG 39KT 3286 9894 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...2.00IN

$$

30

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
116 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1255 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020/
/Through Thursday Night/

Evening surface analysis reveals a 1002 mb low over southeast
Colorado, with a sprawling warm sector in place across much of the
south-central United States. Dewpoints have surged into the upper
60s across much of our CWA, with the moisture axis lying roughly
along the I-45 corridor. One cluster of severe thunderstorms
remains ongoing across parts of Denton and Cooke Counties, and is
tracking northeast towards the Sherman-Denison area as of this
writing.

The next round of thunderstorms is along a line from Aspermont to
San Angelo, and is tracking east. These thunderstorms are
occurring in a region of strong height falls aloft as an upper-
level low digs into the Four Corners Region. Given the residual
instability that remains in place across the Big Country and into
parts of North Texas, these thunderstorms should remain strong to
severe for the next several hours. Vertical wind profiler data
from regional 88Ds shows fairly large hodographs, which will favor
some embedded tornadoes. For this reason, a new Tornado Watch has
been issued which includes our westernmost row of counties. Please
refer to the latest watch county notification (WCN) product for a
complete listing of these counties.

Thunderstorm activity should begin to lose some steam towards
daybreak, but still expecting storms to roll through the
Dallas/Fort Worth Metropolitan Area during the early morning
hours. The main threat closer to the Metroplex will be flash
flooding. Successive rounds of widespread thunderstorms since last
Thursday have brought 4+ inches of rain to much of North Texas.
Any bursts of heavy rain, or training thunderstorms, will quickly
lead to minor flooding, and could lead to flash flooding. A Flash
Flood Watch remains in effect through 7 p.m. Thursday evening.

Significant uncertainty exists for the convective potential on
Thursday afternoon and into Thursday night. The HRRR and NSSL-WRF
develop convection late Thursday afternoon, generally near and
east of I-35/35E. Meanwhile, the 3 km NAM shows virtually nothing,
except perhaps a few thunderstorms west of I-35 in Central Texas.
For this reason, will maintain chance PoPs near and east of
I-35/35E, with some slight chance PoPs back across Central Texas.
For most areas west of I-35/35E, we will see warm temperatures
with highs approaching 80F, and gusty southwest winds.

Late Thursday night, a cold front will begin to make its way into
North Texas, reaching our northwestern counties after midnight,
and approaching the Dallas/Fort Worth area by sunrise. Some
thunderstorms could form ahead of this front, but the greater
chances will likely be in Central Texas where upper-level ascent
will be stronger. It should be noted however that short-range
model guidance has been all over the place with regards to
coverage and placement of any pre-frontal convection, so this
forecast is likely to change somewhat. Stay tuned.

Godwin

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Friday and Beyond/

A strong cold front will push through Central Texas Friday
morning and should reach the northwest Gulf by afternoon. With
split flow in place, it is no surprise that this front will not
dry things out for long. Showers will quickly increase during the
morning as a shortwave lifts northeast out of Mexico, with the
majority of the precipitation occurring south of I-20. Cold air
advection behind the front will hold temperatures in the 50s for
the most part, with highs a good 20 degrees lower than today's
expected readings.

Precipitation will exit to the east Friday night as the shortwave
heads for the deep south. Saturday will start off nice, but
clouds will increase rapidly by midday as isentropic ascent
strengthens ahead of a pair of fast approaching shortwaves. The
first will be in the southern stream, moving out of New Mexico
into Oklahoma. Scattered showers and isolated elevated
thunderstorms will develop Saturday afternoon and evening.
Precipitation will linger into Sunday as a northern stream
disturbance drops southeast through Kansas and Oklahoma. The
initial shortwave may have scoured much of the available moisture,
however, keeping Sunday rain chances mainly in the slight chance
category.

A warm-up will ensue during the first part of next week, as weak
ridging develops aloft and the front retreats north of the Red
River. A passing shortwave will bring low-end rain chances to the
area on Tuesday, but precip will likely be limited to the Red
River area nearest the warm front.

Upper ridging will strengthen overhead once again by Wednesday,
with high temperatures climbing into the 80s area-wide. This will
be followed by another shortwave trough, which may bring more
dryline thunderstorms during the second half of next week.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1255 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020/
/06Z TAFs/

Concerns -- Convective potential during next several hours. MVFR
CIGs persisting through early afternoon. Cold front approaching
early Friday morning.

Metroplex...
SHRA/TSRA ongoing this morning on the northern edge of the D10
TRACON. These storms will be capable of gusty winds, small hail,
and contain tops to near 40 kft. Additional storms will move out
of West TX and into North TX later tonight, reaching D10 TRACON
by 08-09Z. Metroplex airfields likely to be impacted some time
between 08Z and 12Z. Timing will be better refined as TSRA
approach from west, and later amendments to include prevailing
TSRA instead of TEMPO TSRA may be required. After daybreak, TSRA
should move off towards the east, with MVFR CIGs likely to follow
in wake of storms. CIGs should improve to VFR by early afternoon
as gusty SW winds bring in drier air. Early Friday morning, a
cold front will approach, reaching the D10 TRACON around 12Z.
This will need to be addressed with next TAF issuance.

Waco...
TSRA coverage is more uncertain at KACT, as majority of convection
looks to remain to the north. Still, some convection may develop
across parts of Central TX near/after daybreak, so opted to
include VCTS during the morning hours. CIGs should remain MVFR
through early afternoon, becoming VFR as gusty SW winds develop.
TSRA may develop across parts of Central TX later in the day
Thursday, but uncertainty is too high to include in TAF at this
time.

Godwin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    53  55  41  59  51 /  10  40   5   5  80
Waco                56  56  44  59  52 /  40  80  10  20  90
Paris               54  55  40  58  45 /  40  40   5   5  60
Denton              49  55  39  58  49 /  10  30   5   5  70
McKinney            51  55  39  58  49 /  20  40   5   5  70
Dallas              53  57  42  59  52 /  20  40   5   5  80
Terrell             55  56  42  59  49 /  30  60  10  10  80
Corsicana           58  59  44  59  53 /  40  80  20  10  90
Temple              58  59  44  58  53 /  60  80  10  30  90
Mineral Wells       49  55  37  56  48 /   5  20   5  10  60

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>134-141.

&&

30/37

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
148 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-200700-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
148 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
Another round of thunderstorms will move into North Texas early
Thursday morning. Some of these thunderstorms may be severe, and
could contain damaging winds and a few tornadoes. The severe weather
threat will decrease towards sunrise as storms track farther east.
Regardless of the severe weather threat, heavy rainfall may lead to
flash flooding across parts of North Texas.

Additional thunderstorms may develop near and east of I-35/35E this
afternoon. A few thunderstorms may be severe with large hail and
damaging winds being the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue through the weekend,
mainly across Central Texas. The severe weather threat appears low at
this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be possible across parts of North Texas early
Thursday morning, and again Thursday evening east of I-35.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1149 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1137 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 W FORESTBURG          33.53N  97.60W
03/18/2020                   MONTAGUE           TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            FM 1749 AT FM 455 IMPASSABLE DUE TO WATER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1152 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1137 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 N FORESTBURG          33.54N  97.57W
03/18/2020                   MONTAGUE           TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            FLOOD DEBRIS ACROSS FM 677 NORTH OF FM 1630

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1205 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

TXZ092-093-103-190530-
Denton TX-Grayson TX-Cooke TX-
1205 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN DENTON...
SOUTHEASTERN COOKE AND SOUTHWESTERN GRAYSON COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 AM
CDT...

At 1205 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Ray Roberts Park Isle Du Bois, or 5 miles east of Sanger,
moving northeast at 40 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with this storm.

 Locations impacted include...
Denton, Sanger, Pilot Point, Aubrey, Krugerville, Cross Roads, Ray
Roberts Park Isle Du Bois, Ray Roberts Park Johnson Branch, Tioga and
Valley View.

LAT...LON 3319 9707 3332 9714 3341 9723 3354 9709
      3354 9683 3329 9684
TIME...MOT...LOC 0505Z 235DEG 35KT 3339 9705

Dunn

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1221 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0956 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BRIDGEPORT              33.22N  97.77W
03/19/2020                   WISE               TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            NUMEROUS LARGE TREES DOWN IN BRIDGEPORT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1221 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0956 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BRIDGEPORT              33.22N  97.77W
03/18/2020                   WISE               TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            NUMEROUS LARGE TREES DOWN IN BRIDGEPORT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1238 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0934 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SOUTH BEND              33.00N  98.67W
03/18/2020                   YOUNG              TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DAMAGE TO HOMES, TREES AND POWER LINES AT HIGHWAY 67 AND
            FM 701 IN SOUTH BEND