Severe Thunderstorm Warning 178, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
157 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1248 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020/
/This afternoon through Monday/

Extensive high clouds overnight have kept morning temperatures a
bit warmer than the past several days, but will likely have the
opposite effect this afternoon. It still appears that most areas
will see triple digit heat so we will keep the Heat Advisory going
through 7 PM. We will also add the Red River counties to the Heat
Advisory since the clouds will limit daytime mixing, keeping
heat index values near or slightly above 105.

We anticipate isolated to scattered storm development across
North Texas this afternoon in the vicinity of a diffuse frontal
boundary. However, sparse moisture and a stout cap may limit
convection initially. It does appear that storm chances will
increase late in the afternoon/early evening as better moisture
and mesoscale lift oriented along the actual cold front moves in
from the north/northeast. Any storm that develops this
afternoon/evening will have a good potential to produce strong to
severe downburst winds due to rapid evaporation of rain drops as
they fall through very hot and dry air near the surface. These
outflows will also likely travel several miles away from the
parent storm and may create a brief but critical wildfire threat,
especially across the western counties of the CWA.

Rain and thunderstorm chances will linger through the night as a
shortwave moves southward across the entire region. The
shortwave and cold front are progged to move just south of the
CWA by midday Monday but have maintained some low PoPs across are
Central Texas counties Monday afternoon in case the front does
not quite clear the area.

Temperatures on Monday will be considerably cooler than the past
several days due to weak cold air advection and lingering cloud
cover. Highs Monday will range from the lower 90s along the Red
River to the the middle 90s across Central Texas.

79

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Tuesday night through next Sunday night/

There is a chance that a few showers and storms may linger across
our southwestern zones Tuesday evening, but most of the activity
should be moving into the Hill Country region. The rest of the
night will remain quiet as the cold front continues to move
southward. The overnight lows Tuesday night will be very similar
to the previous nights, with low to mid 70s areawide.

The forecast for the rest of the week remains fairly untouched.
While we will remain in northerly flow most of the week, the lack of
moisture near the weak passing disturbances will keep our rain
chances to a minimum. The exception will be for areas across the far
southeastern zones where isolated-scattered convective activity
will be possible each afternoon Thursday-Sunday. Otherwise, near
or just slightly above normal temperatures are expected through
the next 7 days.

Sanchez

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1248 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020/
/18Z TAFs/

VFR at all TAF sites through Monday with scattered daytime Cu and
broken to overcast high clouds.

The only major aviation weather concern will be the potential for
thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight. Most models are in
agreement that convection will develop across North Texas between
20Z and 21Z as a cold front eases into the region. These storms
will be capable of gusty and erratic winds several miles from the
parent storm. Storms should gradually track south into Central
Texas through the evening, but a second round of showers and
storms is likely late in the evening/overnight when a shortwave
moves south out of Oklahoma. All precipitation should move south
of the TAF sites before mid morning Monday once the shortwave and
cold front move into Central Texas.

A southeast to east wind to start the TAF cycle will gradually
back to the northeast this evening and north/northeast on Monday.
Wind speeds will remain below 10 knots with the exception of
thunderstorm wind gusts.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    76  93  76  96  75 /  50  30   5   5   0
Waco                76  96  74  99  74 /  60  30   5   5   0
Paris               71  91  72  93  70 /  30  10   0   5   0
Denton              74  92  74  95  72 /  50  30   5   5   0
McKinney            74  94  74  96  72 /  40  20   0   5   0
Dallas              76  94  77  96  76 /  50  30   5   5   0
Terrell             74  95  72  97  72 /  50  20   5   5   0
Corsicana           75  94  73  96  74 /  60  20   5   5   0
Temple              75  96  73  99  74 /  50  30  10  10   5
Mineral Wells       72  93  71  96  70 /  60  40   5   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

17/79

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
403 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020

TXZ105-120-121-162130-
Kaufman TX-Hunt TX-Rockwall TX-
403 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN ROCKWALL...SOUTHWESTERN
HUNT AND NORTHEASTERN KAUFMAN COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

At 403 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Royse City, or 9 miles east of Rockwall. This storm was nearly
stationary.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

 Locations impacted include...
Rockwall, Terrell, Royse City, Fate and McLendon-Chisholm.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so closely monitor for additional
information or possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3295 9640 3296 9618 3275 9612 3275 9644
TIME...MOT...LOC 2103Z 358DEG 4KT 3289 9629

92

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
434 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020

TXZ105-162200-
Hunt TX-
434 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN HUNT COUNTY UNTIL
500 PM CDT...

At 433 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Wolfe City, or 11 miles northwest of Commerce, moving southwest at 15
mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

 Locations impacted include...
Wolfe City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so closely monitor for additional
information or possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3321 9594 3323 9618 3338 9613 3340 9592
TIME...MOT...LOC 2133Z 023DEG 11KT 3334 9607

92

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