Severe Thunderstorm Warning 162, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
248 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1217 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020/
/Through Wednesday Night/

Persistent northwest flow aloft will bring yet another MCS into
North Texas overnight into Tuesday morning, followed by a weak
cold front. Thunderstorms are ongoing across northwest Texas and
western Oklahoma, and should enter the northwest zones a few hours
from now, before continuing southeast to the DFW Metroplex during
the pre-dawn hours. Storms will be pushing into an unstable
airmass, particularly across the western zones where mixed layer
CAPE values of 3500+ J/KG will be in place. This will create a
mainly damaging wind concern with any storms which become severe.
Instability decreases the farther east you get, but a few damaging
wind gusts will remain possible as far east as the I-35 corridor.
A lack of significant deep layer shear likely precludes a large
hail threat, though a few storms with quarter sized hail cannot be
ruled out. In addition, 2-inch precipitable water values also
creates a localized flooding concern given the good rainfall
totals received since Friday.

Storms may initially weaken mid to late morning as they push
south of I-20 and the front temporarily stalls. An upper level
disturbance should, however, allow for redevelopment in the
vicinity of the boundary this afternoon. This convection and the
weak front will continue southward through Central Texas Tuesday
afternoon and this evening, eventually pushing south of the region
Tuesday night. Afternoon convection will also contain a threat
for a few damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rain. Otherwise,
the front and associated convection will bring more pleasant
temperatures to the region, with today's highs generally in the
80s followed by lows mainly in the 65 to 70 degree range tonight.

30

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Wednesday Through Monday/

The unsettled weather pattern will continue, especially during the
diurnal hours during peak heating and higher instability off/on
through the rest of this week. Broad northwest flow aloft will
continue across the area through Thursday, before a more broad
weak zonal/flat shortwave ridge configuration sets up Friday into
next weekend. A stationary front will remain draped near or just
south of Central Texas on Wednesday, before lifting northward as a
warm front on Thursday. Richer moisture and precipitable water
values 1.5-2 inches will be concentrated across especially eastern
Central Texas both days and I have maintained 20-50% coverage
across this area. As the warm front surges northward Thursday,
this richer plume of moisture will surge northward across East
Texas with isolated-scattered rain changes occurring mostly east
of I-35 and south of I-30. Areas further northwest should see
slightly higher heights aloft and associated subsidence, so have
basically kept these areas day. Otherwise, highs both days will
continue around, or slightly below climatological normals. Highs
should continue between 85 and 90 degrees each day, though an
isolated reading in the lower 90s cannot be ruled out each day.
Lows will average between the mid 60s to lower 70s each morning.

Both an easterly wave across the Western Gulf of Mexico and a
strong mid-latitude impulse will impact the area Friday with
isolated to scattered storms firing during peak heating with rich
precipitable water values increasing toward 1.75-2 inches generally
along and east of a Sherman, to Fort Worth, to Lampasas line. Low
convective chances will remain generally along and east of I-35
this coming weekend, where moisture remains deeper along with
better diurnal instability values. Elsewhere should remain mostly
dry as we remain on the periphery of a stronger mid level ridge
anchored over the Gulf of Mexico. Better chances for strong to
severe storms should remain north of the Red River Valley where
stronger westerly flow aloft and associated shear will be present
compared the the weak flow aloft over our area. In addition,
slightly hotter and humid conditions will return with highs 90-95
degrees with heat index values 95-100 degrees, with values 100-105
degrees returning across parts of Central Texas thanks to richer
surface dew point temperatures.

Enjoy the convective rains now, as a strong mid level ridge
intensifies across the area beginning early next week with the
rain faucet shutting off and hotter temperatures to end the month
of June and as we move toward Independence Day and the first week
of July. Highs will likely return toward the mid 90s with the
typical southerly breezes each day conducive of Summer around
these parts. Early rounds of morning stratus, mainly across
Central and East Texas will give way to partly-mostly sunny skies
each afternoon early next week.

05/

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1217 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020/
/06Z TAFs/

A line of thunderstorms currently over northwest Texas/western
Oklahoma should begin to affect northwest gates of DFW Tracon
07-08Z, then Metroplex airports starting 9-11Z. Storms will likely
be accompanied by gusty northwest winds. A weak cold front will
shift prevailing winds to a northerly direction behind the morning
convection, with a few hours of post-frontal stratus hanging
around the Metro area. Storms may weaken mid to late morning as
they push southeast into Central Texas, but will likely re-
develop this afternoon along the cold front. Hence the KACT TAF
contains 2 separate VCTS periods.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    81  70  89  71  90 /  70  10   0   0  10
Waco                83  69  88  71  90 /  60  30  20  10  30
Paris               81  66  86  68  87 /  40  10   0   0  20
Denton              81  66  88  69  89 /  70  10   0   0   5
McKinney            82  68  88  70  89 /  70  10   0   0  10
Dallas              82  70  90  73  91 /  70  20   0   0  10
Terrell             82  68  87  69  89 /  70  20  10   5  20
Corsicana           83  70  87  71  88 /  60  40  20  10  30
Temple              86  70  88  70  90 /  60  40  30  10  30
Mineral Wells       82  68  87  68  88 /  70   5   5   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

05/30

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