Severe Thunderstorm Warning 112, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
806 PM CDT Thu May 7 2020

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Friday Evening/

There are two opportunities for thunderstorms through early
tomorrow morning across North and Central Texas. The first
opportunity will mainly be focused across our northwestern zones
through late this evening. An intense supercell, with a history of
very large to giant hail, developed along a southward extending
dryline this afternoon and has maintained intensity over the past
few hours. This cell will move into an environment that is not
quite as favorable for severe weather, with a stout cap in place
seen in the 00Z FWD sounding. While a weakening trend is
anticipated as the cell approaches our northwestern zones,
increased low-level flow may aid in maintaining its strength. The
potential for severe hail is greatest across parts of Young,
Jack, and Palo Pinto counties, which has been highlighted in the
latest WoFS runs.

Our second opportunity will be late tonight as a line of showers
and thunderstorms develops ahead of a cold front across the
Plains. This activity will approach the Red River after midnight
and track across the region through Friday morning. A threat for
damaging wind gusts and hail will exist along and north of the
I-20 corridor, where forcing for ascent associated with the upper
level shortwave will be present. As the shortwave translates east,
the potential for severe weather will decrease, although gusty
winds may continue to be a threat across Central Texas.

Breezy winds will persist behind the cold front and remain near
Wind Advisory criteria, with sustained winds near 20-25 mph.
Unlike today where a few sites in the Metroplex observed wind
gusts upwards of 35 mph, the coverage area behind the front will
include nearly all of North and Central Texas through early Friday
afternoon. High temperatures will range from the upper 60s along
the Red River to the upper 70s across Central Texas.

Garcia

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 355 PM CDT Thu May 7 2020/
/Friday Night through Thursday/

The extended forecast looks spectacular into early next week
before we return to a more typical Spring pattern. Much drier and
cooler air will be in place by Friday night with clear skies and
diminishing winds. This will allow overnight lows to drop into the
mid/upper 40s and lower 50s by early Saturday morning.

Weak surface high pressure will prevail across the region through
the weekend with a weak reinforcing cold front sliding southward
on Sunday. Other than some increased cloud cover, no precipitation
is expected. High temperatures will stay in the 70s through the
weekend.

By early next week, with our surface high sliding off to the east,
a southerly flow will become established. Moisture will slowly
spread into Central TX during the day on Monday and it will feel
markedly more humid by late in the day Monday. A passing
disturbance on Monday night may result in an increase in showers
and thunderstorms across West Texas. Some of this may spread into
our area during the overnight hours and on Tuesday. We'll maintain
some low PoPs through the middle of the week. Severe weather
potential is a little uncertain at this time, but we'll keep an
eye on moisture return as this would certainly increase
instability across the region. Temperatures will steadily warm
through the week into the mid/upper 80s by Thursday.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

Convection northwest of the DFW Metroplex should remain clear of
the terminals, but disruptions across the northwest cornerpost
will continue over the next few hours. The better potential for
thunderstorms will arrive during the early morning hours across
the Metroplex, and near daybreak at Waco as a cold front pushes
southward. A few hours of MVFR ceilings are expected after 6Z
across the terminals, but VFR should prevail by the mid morning
hours. Breezy southerly winds will persist overnight, although
gusts should remain just below 30 knots. Behind the front,
northerly winds sustained near 20 knots and higher gusts are
expected through early Friday afternoon before decreasing after
sunset to 10-15 knots.

Garcia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    66  72  52  73  54 /  70  20   0   0   0
Waco                69  76  53  74  52 /  40  50   5   0   0
Paris               63  69  46  67  47 /  90  30   0   0   0
Denton              63  69  47  72  51 /  70  10   0   0   0
McKinney            64  70  48  71  50 /  80  20   0   0   0
Dallas              65  73  52  73  54 /  70  20   0   0   0
Terrell             65  72  49  71  49 /  70  40   0   0   0
Corsicana           67  75  52  72  51 /  50  60   5   0   0
Temple              68  78  54  74  53 /  30  40   5   5   5
Mineral Wells       65  71  47  73  50 /  40   5   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

22/30

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
336 PM CDT Thu May 7 2020

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-081200-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
336 PM CDT Thu May 7 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated severe thunderstorms may affect areas northwest of the
Metroplex this evening. Large hail and damaging winds would be the
main threats. Overnight tonight into early Friday morning,
thunderstorms will increase in coverage along a cold front. Some of
the stronger thunderstorms could produce damaging winds mainly north
of I-20.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Thunderstorm chances may return to the region early next week, but
the severe weather threat looks low at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Limited spotter activation may be requested in parts of North Texas
late this evening.