River Flood Warning 9, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
616 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2020

.AVIATION...
/12 UTC TAF Cycle/

Concerns---TSRA...ceiling and visibility trends.

A band of SHRA and embedded TSRA will continue to lift northward
through Metroplex TAFs with impacts to just about all
arrival/departure gates. IFR vsby (due to +RA) along with MVFR
cigs between FL015-FL20 should be anticipated. I expect that by
15-16 UTC most of this activity will have lifted northward out of
the vicinity of all Metroplex TAFs. Just showers are expected
INVOF Waco this morning, with occasional SHRA within 5 miles of
this terminal.

MVFR cigs will gradually lower to IFR through mid-morning as winds
just above the surface become more easterly and transports richer
moisture toward the I-35 corridor. Given the wind field, there's a
good chance that most sites will be entrenched in IFR through the
remainder of the 12 UTC TAF cycle, including the 24 to 30 hour
window of the D/FW TAF. LIFR cigs are possible, during this time, but
confidence is too low prevail these poor flying conditions.

Intermittent SHRA...DZ and BR will reduce visibility down into
MVFR with IFR visibility probable by mid to late afternoon.
Surface winds may become more easterly around 1200 UTC Friday and
could allow for a return to south flow operations. However, the
shallow cold airmass may be difficult to erode and as such, I'll
omit this from the current TAF set.

Bain

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 330 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2020/
/Today and Tonight/

Increasing rain chances and cooler conditions are the main
headlines in the short term forecast period.

The radarscope as of 0300 CST was starting to illuminate with
isolated to widely scattered showers developing. Area VWPs
sampled a veering low level wind field with 925-850mb flow
becoming more east/southeasterly resulting in gradual upglide
along the surface front which was located roughly near a Tyler to
to Burnet line. Ahead of this boundary, some patchy to areas of
fog will develop through the pre-dawn hours as the windshift has
not effectively overturned the boundary layer. At this time, dense
fog appears unlikely and I will forgo any advisories. Trends will
be monitored through the morning.

As we head through the morning hours, I expect a proliferation of
convective activity as low level ascent intensifies ahead of a
diffuse wave expected to eject out into the Big Country around
1000 CST. While most areas should see some measurable rainfall
today, the most concentrated rain/storm activity will initially
be focused near and just north of the I-20 corridor this morning
before shifting to the west and north through the day. Instability
in general will be on the order of a few hundred Joules per
kilogram and for that reason, I'll only advertise isolated
thunderstorms. Severe weather prospects appear low, but I wouldn't
be surprised if a stronger embedded updraft produced brief bouts
of small hail. It'll be much cooler today compared to the past few
periods as cold advection coupled with the cloud, rain and storms
should keep temperatures in check. If the NAM is to verify (which
is entirely possible), some areas across the Big Country may fall
into the upper 30s this morning and struggle to get above 40.
This would be a good 10 to 15 degrees below normal for this time
of year. Other areas will likely remain in the 50s (5 to 8
degrees below normal) with some 60s/70s possible as technical
"high temperatures" for the day across the Brazos Valley. Note,
however, many locations will see their high temperatures early on
today and the CAA will result in increasingly cooler conditions as
we venture into the afternoon and toward nightfall.

We should see a brief lull in the rain/isolated thunderstorm
activity this evening and into the night as we await the next
impulse arriving from the west. During this time, a surge of
moisture---likely associated with the retreating front---will
slosh back to the west and northwest. This could result in another
round of rain/storms as well as fog. For now, I'll keep mention
of fog out of the forecast, but it may need to be added as
warm/moist air slides atop the cooler near surface layer.

Bain

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 330 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2020/
/Friday through Wednesday/

Another dreary day is expected on Friday areawide with rain
chances increasing as we go through the day. A large upper trough
will be ejecting into the Plains during the day allowing surface
pressures to rapidly fall. As an area of low pressure develops and
moves northeast, our cold front will quickly return north as a
warm front by afternoon. Forcing for ascent will be maximized
within a concentrated area of 925-850 mb warm advection just to
the northwest of the CWA during the morning hours, and most of the
ongoing rainfall will be in that area. We'll likely still have
some areas of rain ongoing farther east and south, but rain
chances will increase throughout North Texas during the afternoon
hours. As the upper trough continues eastward into the evening
hours, a cold front will slide south into the region by night.
Showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will precede the front
with precipitation coming to an end from west to east overnight. A
lack of appreciable instability will be the main limiting factor
for a better coverage of thunderstorms through the day.

The weekend is shaping up to be quite nice and seasonably cool.
Skies will clear early Saturday and highs will top out in the mid
to upper 50s. A brisk north wind will make it feel a little
cooler. Continued cold advection into Sunday will mean another
cool day. Highs on Sunday will be in the lower 50s. We'll likely
see a late day increase in mid and high cloud cover on Sunday
which may also help limit temperatures.

A strong disturbance swinging through the mid-Mississippi River
Valley on Monday will send another cold front through the area.
This system should be dry but it will make for a chilly Monday and
Tuesday with highs likely staying in the upper 40s for most areas.
Moisture will return on Wednesday ahead of a potent late week
system that will likely bring additional rain chances.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    50  44  57  49  58 /  80  60  80  70   5
Waco                56  47  63  51  62 /  70  30  70  60  10
Paris               54  43  52  48  56 /  70  40  70  80  10
Denton              47  46  55  46  56 /  90  70  90  70   5
McKinney            49  46  56  48  56 /  80  60  80  80   5
Dallas              51  48  57  49  59 /  80  60  80  70   5
Terrell             56  47  59  49  59 /  80  40  70  80  10
Corsicana           58  50  65  53  61 /  60  30  60  70  20
Temple              56  55  64  53  62 /  60  40  60  50  20
Mineral Wells       46  45  52  44  56 /  90  70  80  50   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

24/91

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