Severe Thunderstorm Warning 94, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

809 
WWUS53 KFSD 030606
SVSFSD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
106 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020

SDC003-023-035-043-067-030630-
/O.CON.KFSD.SV.W.0094.000000T0000Z-200703T0630Z/
Davison SD-Aurora SD-Charles Mix SD-Douglas SD-Hutchinson SD-
106 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN DAVISON...SOUTHEASTERN AURORA...SOUTHEASTERN CHARLES
MIX...DOUGLAS AND WESTERN HUTCHINSON COUNTIES...

At 106 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 7 miles west of Dimock to 6 miles south of Geddes,
moving south at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Ground observation stations.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

These severe storms will be near...
  Lake Andes around 110 AM CDT.
  Parkston and Pickstown around 120 AM CDT.
  Delmont around 125 AM CDT.
  Tripp around 135 AM CDT.
  Kaylor around 140 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4303 9852 4350 9860 4369 9798 4350 9796
      4350 9793 4318 9785 4317 9788 4317 9808
      4307 9811 4293 9844
TIME...MOT...LOC 0606Z 341DEG 37KT 4351 9814 4317 9866 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Kalin

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1011 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 952 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020

A line of strong storms progressing through central SD will
approach areas along and west of the SD Missouri River Valley in
the next few hours. This line is expected to gradually continue to
weaken as it approaches the weaker deep layer shear further east.
However it may still pose isolated threat of large hail or
damaging wind gusts to areas south of a Wessington Springs to
Mitchell line, where southernmost cells in the line are supported
by the developing low level jet, steeper mid level lapse rates,
and untapped instability.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020

02.19Z water vapor shows a weak short-wave moving into the western
Dakotas within southwest flow aloft. This will be the primary
focus for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. If
any one cluster of thunderstorms becomes cold-pool dominant, it
could move into areas west of the James River after 00Z tonight.
That said, weak shear and lack of forcing preclude any strong to
severe thunderstorms in the local area. Otherwise, expect thermal
cumulus to dissipate through the evening with mostly clear skies
overnight. Lows will range from the mid 60s to near 70 degrees.

For Friday, a 500 hPa short-wave ridge builds across the region,
resulting in broad albeit weak subsidence. This, combined with a
strong thermal cap around 800 hPa should squash convective chances
for most of the day. That said, will continue to carry 20-30 POPs
across the western forecast area late in the afternoon into the
evening to cover any potential bleed over from convection across
West River. Highs tomorrow will range form the upper 70s to near
80 degrees. Given dewpoints near 70 degrees, expect another muggy
day.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020

Aforementioned 500 hPa ridge flattens a bit on Saturday with the
02.12Z model suite hinting at a couple weak short-waves riding the
ridge mainly across North Dakota. Think most convection will stay
tied to these features, although cannot completely rule out some
scattered showers and storms farther south. Will carry 20-30 POPs
Saturday afternoon/evening for now, but expect mostly dry
conditions for 4th of July festivities. Given the potential for
slightly better forcing Saturday, any storms that do develop
could be strong as highlighted in the Day 3 SPC Outlook (marginal
risk). Bigger threat Saturday will be continued heat and humidity
with afternoon heat index values well into the 90s for most
locations.

Ridge continues to flatten Sunday through much of next week as
stronger, more persistent troughing progresses across the northern
tier states. Several short-waves look to traverse the Dakotas, but
timing/strength differences abound between medium-range models. As
a result, chance POPs (30-50%) seem reasonable for much of the
long term at this time. Still no strong signals to suggest a
change in air mass, so seasonably warm/humid conditions look to
continue with daily highs from the upper 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 952 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020

A line of storms in central SD will progress slowly eastward late this
evening, tracking near KHON and K9V9 around 05z and spreading
anvil cirrus across much of the rest of the region. Storms will
bring erratic gusty winds and MVFR ceilings/vsby, continuing to
weaken and eventually dissipate as they progress eastward
overnight.

Other than with storms, VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the TAF period. Southeast winds will weaken diurnally
around dusk and strengthen slightly to near 10 kts Friday morning.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...BP
SHORT TERM...Rogers
LONG TERM...Rogers
AVIATION...BP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
456 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-
098-NEZ013-014-SDZ038>040-050-052>071-031000-
Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-
Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Lincoln-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-
Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory-
Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-McCook-
Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Bon Homme-Yankton-
Union-
456 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Iowa, west central
Iowa, southwest Minnesota, northeast Nebraska, central South
Dakota, east central South Dakota, south central South Dakota and
southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Heat index values this afternoon in the 90s will increase the
potential for heat related illness. Those spending time outdoors will
need to take precautions, such as staying hydrated and taking more
frequent breaks.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Afternoon heat indices remain in the 90s Friday through the holiday
weekend, increasing the potential for heat related illnesses. Be
sure to drink plenty of fluids and take frequent breaks if working
outside.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1244 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1205 AM     TSTM WND GST     HURON                   44.37N 98.21W
07/03/2020  M62 MPH          BEADLE             SD   ASOS

&&