Severe Thunderstorm Warning 85, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

306 
WWUS53 KFSD 252154
SVSFSD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
454 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020

SDC003-015-023-252230-
/O.CON.KFSD.SV.W.0085.000000T0000Z-200625T2230Z/
Aurora SD-Charles Mix SD-Brule SD-
454 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN AURORA...NORTH CENTRAL CHARLES MIX AND SOUTHEASTERN
BRULE COUNTIES...

At 454 PM CDT, the public reported severe thunderstorms producing
damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. These storms were located along a
line extending from near Grass Ranch Colony to 12 miles northwest of 
Platte, moving east at 25 mph. Penny size hail may also accompany 
the damaging winds.

These severe storms will be near...
  Grass Ranch Colony around 500 PM CDT.

LAT...LON 4371 9888 4371 9862 4354 9866 4343 9881
      4343 9900 4347 9910 4355 9911
TIME...MOT...LOC 2154Z 267DEG 21KT 4362 9885 4351 9903 

$$

VandenBoogart

324 
WWUS53 KFSD 252203
SVSFSD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
503 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020

SDC015-023-252213-
/O.CAN.KFSD.SV.W.0085.000000T0000Z-200625T2230Z/
Charles Mix SD-Brule SD-
503 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL CHARLES MIX AND
SOUTHEASTERN BRULE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 4363 9879 4371 9879 4371 9862 4354 9866
      4350 9872 4350 9879 4363 9880
TIME...MOT...LOC 2203Z 267DEG 21KT 4362 9881 4351 9899 

$$

SDC003-252230-
/O.CON.KFSD.SV.W.0085.000000T0000Z-200625T2230Z/
Aurora SD-
503 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN AURORA COUNTY...

At 503 PM CDT, the public reported severe thunderstorms producing
damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. These storms were located along a
line extending from near Grass Ranch Colony to 11 miles northwest of
Platte, moving east at 25 mph. penny size hail may also accompany the
damaging winds.

These severe thunderstorms will remain over mainly rural areas of
southwestern Aurora County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

In addition to large hail and damaging winds, continuous cloud to
ground lightning is occurring with this storm.  Move indoors
immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading killers. Remember,
if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by
lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 4363 9879 4371 9879 4371 9862 4354 9866
      4350 9872 4350 9879 4363 9880
TIME...MOT...LOC 2203Z 267DEG 21KT 4362 9881 4351 9899 

$$

VandenBoogart

287 
WWUS53 KFSD 252210
SVSFSD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
510 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020

SDC003-252219-
/O.CAN.KFSD.SV.W.0085.000000T0000Z-200625T2230Z/
Aurora SD-
510 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN AURORA COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
            
The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
south central South Dakota.

Remember, a Severe Thunderstorm Warning still remains in effect for 
portions of northern Aurora county.

LAT...LON 4363 9879 4371 9879 4371 9862 4354 9866
      4350 9872 4350 9879 4363 9880
TIME...MOT...LOC 2206Z 267DEG 21KT 4362 9878 4351 9896 

$$

VandenBoogart

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
224 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020

Focus this evening is on convective/severe weather potential.  MCV
across western North Dakota and western Nebraska are expected to
shift east and interact with unstable environment.  Subtle warm
front positioned in the vicinity of I-90. Modest warm air advection
south of the boundary is expected to eventually lead to convective
development. Based on CAMs, convective initiation appears to be in
the 20-21Z time frame. With 2000-3500 J/kg of ML CAPE, expect more
than ample instability west of I-29 tonight. While there are veering
wind shear profiles ahead of this wave, 0-6 km bulk shear is only 25-
30 knots, making it a bit difficult for widespread organization
though the event. With that said, storms may exhibit supercell
characteristics at times, especially early in the event. Along and
west of the James, CAPE in the -10 to -30 C exceeds 500 J/kg leading
to potentially large hail, especially if we can develop mid level
rotation.  Other big concern is straight line winds.  With downdraft
CAPE of 1000-1300 J/kg in part due to the dry air in the mid levels,
expect wind to also be a threat and become the primary threat east
of the James until storms run out of instability near the I-29
corridor.

Potential for storms continues into Friday as slow moving cold front
moves through the area.  Severe threat decreases after 06Z Friday
with limited instability.  Could see additional showers and
thunderstorms through the day on Friday, with the greatest chances
across northwest Iowa along and ahead of the cold front.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020

Front is expected to work east into central Iowa through the
afternoon hours leading to clearing skies and light winds Friday
night. With drier air around the region, lows should fall into the
lower 60s.

850 HPA temperatures only briefly cool behind the front and warm by
mid day Saturday into the mid and upper teens.  Additional warming is
expected into the Sunday into early next week as low pressure over
Saskatchewan lifts northeast and the plains remain in the warm
sector with southerly flow continuing to draw warmer air into the
region. The warmest day appears to be on Monday as 850 hpa
temperatures warm into the 22-24 C range.  Biggest question is how
much high cloud cover will impact temperatures.  On Tuesday, low
level flow turns more easterly, and the potential for stratus
increases, especially across northwest Iowa into southwest
Minnesota.

Convective chances increase mid to late week next week as upper
trough along the west coast lifts into the central and Northern
Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020

VFR conditions expected prior to storms tonight. Have narrowed
convective potential through the evening hours. Could see
additional storms, especially along and east of I-29 but timing
is ill defined at this point so left mention out.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM...BT
AVIATION...BT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
226 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020

SDZ038>040-050-052>055-057>061-063>065-068-261000-
Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory-Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Brule-
Aurora-Davison-Hanson-McCook-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-
Bon Homme-
226 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central South Dakota, east
central South Dakota, south central South Dakota and southeast
South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop later this afternoon across
central South Dakota and move eastward into the evening. Some of
these storms may be severe with large hail up to 2 inches in diameter
and damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible. While the chances are
low, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed after 5 pm today.

IAZ001-012-MNZ071-072-080-089-097-098-NEZ013-SDZ056-062-066-067-
069>071-261000-
Lyon-Sioux-Lincoln-Murray-Nobles-Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Moody-
Minnehaha-Turner-Yankton-Clay-Union-
226 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Iowa, southwest
Minnesota, northeast Nebraska, east central South Dakota and
southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop across central South Dakota
later this afternoon and move toward the I-29 corridor by mid to late
evening. Some of these storms may be strong to severe with large hail
to the size of quarters and wind gusts to around 60 mph possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed after 9 pm this evening.

IAZ002-003-013-014-020>022-031-032-MNZ081-090-NEZ014-261000-
Osceola-Dickinson-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-Buena Vista-
Woodbury-Ida-Cottonwood-Jackson-Dakota-
226 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Iowa, west central
Iowa, southwest Minnesota and northeast Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms will move in from the west late this evening into the
overnight hours. While storms are expected to be decreasing in
intensity by this time, a stronger storm or two is possible with wind
gusts to around 60 mph and small hail possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Additional thunderstorms may be possible on Friday depending on the
timing of a frontal passage. The severe weather risk currently
appears low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.