Severe Thunderstorm Warning 72, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

518 
WWUS53 KFSD 211954
SVSFSD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
254 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

MNC101-212030-
/O.CON.KFSD.SV.W.0072.000000T0000Z-200621T2030Z/
Murray MN-
254 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN MURRAY COUNTY...

At 253 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Currie, or near
Slayton, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe storm will be near...
  Dovray around 315 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
Sioux Falls.

&&

LAT...LON 4397 9577 4410 9584 4420 9562 4420 9546
      4403 9547
TIME...MOT...LOC 1953Z 251DEG 20KT 4406 9570 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Dux

541 
WWUS53 KFSD 212009
SVSFSD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
309 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

MNC101-212030-
/O.CON.KFSD.SV.W.0072.000000T0000Z-200621T2030Z/
Murray MN-
309 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN MURRAY COUNTY...

At 309 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Dovray, or 10
miles northeast of Slayton, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
northeastern Murray County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
Sioux Falls.

&&

LAT...LON 4408 9583 4420 9562 4420 9546 4403 9547
      4397 9577
TIME...MOT...LOC 2009Z 250DEG 22KT 4407 9557 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Dux

600 
WWUS53 KFSD 212017
SVSFSD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
317 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

MNC101-212027-
/O.CAN.KFSD.SV.W.0072.000000T0000Z-200621T2030Z/
Murray MN-
317 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN MURRAY COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However heavy rain is
still possible with this thunderstorm and minor flooding may occur.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Sioux Falls.

LAT...LON 4408 9583 4420 9562 4420 9546 4403 9547
      4397 9577
TIME...MOT...LOC 2016Z 248DEG 24KT 4409 9550 

$$

Dux

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
231 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

Active forecast today with very weakly capped unstable environment
across the forecast area.  Surface boundary loosely extending from
Yankton to Slayton MN, with surface based CAPE south and east of
there around 2500 J/kg.  As moisture continues to feed into the
region, could see CAPE values approach 3000 J/kg.  Several potential
mechanisms aiding in convective initiation this afternoon.  Forecast
area is located in the right rear quadrant of upper level jet streak
across central Minnesota to add in upper level lift. Weak short wave
is expected to rotate around upper trough centered north of
Minnesota late this afternoon, and may interact with surface
boundary and gravity waves emanating from elevated storms in eastern
Nebraska.  Depending on which feature(s) dominate, thunderstorms are
expected to develop in the 20-21Z time frame when cap is quite
weak.

Many of the CAMs are focusing on northeast Nebraska for convective
initiation, building north and east along the boundary, then moving
east with time.  0-6 km bulk shear is around 30 knots, with slightly
higher values west of the surface boundary across central and
eastern South Dakota. Veering profiles will aid in storm
organization and evolution.  With a few boundaries around, could see
a tornado or two with any isolated convection or with storms along
boundaries. Expect main severe threat to be large hail, damaging
winds and heavy rain.  With steep mid level lapse rates, and mid
level shear, agree with previous assessment/SPC outlook for large
hail to near baseball sized.  Precipitable water has spiked to 1.3-
1.5", near the 90 percentile moving mean. HREF ensemble mean
guidance suggesting 0.75-1.50 inches in 3 hour period with max
values approaching 3" across much of northwest Iowa. Am comfortable
leaving the flash flood watch as is for now, highlighting the area
that received 1-3" inches earlier this morning.

After 06Z tonight, atmosphere is only weakly capped from lift near
900 mb.  Could see an elevated storm early Monday morning.  Still
~1000 J/kg of elevated CAPE, and may see isolated storms produce
severe hail.

Much weaker instability and unidirectional shear profiles should
limit severe potential on Monday but may have storms around
especially during peak heating.  Fair amount of clouds and cooler
temperatures will keep temperatures below normal.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

Cooler and drier conditions expected Tuesday into Wednesday as
surface high pressure remains across the region.

Negatively tilted trough is expected to move into the Plains on
Thursday into Friday, creating the next potential for storms and
severe weather.

Next weekend is looking fairly warm as upper ridge builds across the
west and 850 hpa temps warm into the upper teens to near 20C. This
should yield highs well into the 80s, with the potential for a near
90 degree reading.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020
A couple of areas of concern today. The obvious concern is across
northwest Iowa where convection is likely after 20Z today. Could
see visibility reduced in heavy rain. Storms could also produce
large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado through the
evening hours. Thereafter, the threat for an elevated storm will
linger through much of the overnight hours into Monday morning.

Further to the northwest, elevated high based showers are possible
through mid afternoon. After 00Z Monday, the chance of
thunderstorms moving in from western portions of the state
increase. This activity should gradually wane through the
overnight, though isolated storms are possible through Monday
morning.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for SDZ070-071.

MN...NONE.
IA...Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for IAZ020>022-
     031-032.

NE...Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for NEZ013-014.

&&

SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM...BT
AVIATION...BT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
955 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

SDZ038-039-050-052>054-057>060-063-064-221100-
Beadle-Kingsbury-Gregory-Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Brule-Aurora-Davison-
Hanson-Charles Mix-Douglas-
955 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central South Dakota, east
central South Dakota, south central South Dakota and southeast
South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

As thunderstorms develop this afternoon, an isolated thunderstorm
could become strong to severe. Hail up to half-dollar size and wind
gusts to around 60 mph will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

A chance for thunderstorms appears to return late week, but it is too
early to determine the timing or potential for a severe weather
threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed between 2 pm and 6 pm.

MNZ071-072-080-081-097-098-SDZ040-055-056-061-062-065-066-068-069-
221100-
Lincoln-Lyon-Murray-Cottonwood-Pipestone-Rock-Brookings-Lake-Moody-
McCook-Minnehaha-Hutchinson-Turner-Bon Homme-Yankton-
955 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Minnesota, east
central South Dakota and southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms will develop between 2 pm and 5 pm across southeast
South Dakota into southwest Minnesota. Strongest storms could produce
large hail up to golf ball size and damaging winds to 70 mph. The
severe weather threat should shift south of the area between 600 pm
and 800 pm. Some areas of heavy rainfall are possible, which could
produce ponding of water in poor drainage and rural areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

A chance for thunderstorms appears to return late week, but it is too
early to determine the timing or potential for a severe weather
threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed between 2 pm and 8 pm.

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ089-090-NEZ013-014-SDZ067-070-
071-221100-
Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-
Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Nobles-Jackson-Dixon-Dakota-Lincoln-Union-
955 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Iowa, west central
Iowa, southwest Minnesota, northeast Nebraska and southeast South
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop between 300 pm and 500 pm, and
will be capable of producing hail to around hen egg size, winds to
70 mph, and a few tornadoes are possible. Severe storm threats
should diminish late evening. Rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per
hour are possible with storms, which could produce spotty flash
flooding during the late afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

A chance for thunderstorms appears to return late week, but it is too
early to determine the timing or potential for a severe weather
threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed between 3 pm and 10 pm.