Severe Thunderstorm Warning 198, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

898 
WWUS53 KFSD 120042
SVSFSD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
742 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020

IAC149-193-NEC043-SDC127-120052-
/O.EXP.KFSD.SV.W.0198.000000T0000Z-201012T0045Z/
Woodbury IA-Plymouth IA-Dakota NE-Union SD-
742 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WESTERN WOODBURY...CENTRAL
PLYMOUTH...DAKOTA AND SOUTHEASTERN UNION COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 745
PM CDT...
            
The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty
winds are still possible with these thunderstorms.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
northwestern and west central Iowa...northeastern Nebraska...and
southeastern South Dakota.

LAT...LON 4290 9598 4228 9625 4228 9664 4281 9653
TIME...MOT...LOC 0042Z 233DEG 24KT 4289 9599 4243 9628 

$$

APT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
543 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020

A cold front will move through the area tonight with a few
thunderstorms expected ahead of it through about 5z. Scattered
severe storms are possible with strong deep layer shear, about 40
knots, and marginal instability, about 1200 J/kg. With this type of
shear and instability would expect some isolated stronger updrafts
capable of producing golf ball sized hail. It even looks like areas
from about a Ivanhoe to Cherokee line east will have some turning in
the low level wind field which might support low level rotation and
an isolated tornado threat. These threats will linger through about
2z, with a weakening trend after this. There may be some trailing
showers or even an isolated thunderstorm through about midnight as a
cold front aloft moves in behind the cold front at the surface with
some indication of very weak instability aloft.

Once the threat for precipitation moves east we are looking at a
week ahead with very little threat for rainfall. High pressure moves
south of the area tonight into Monday which will leave us in a mixy
westerly environment during this time. This will keep lows from
dropping too much with most location in the low to mid 40s by Monday
morning. Monday will see most locations reach the upper 60s to lower
70s with west winds mixing down gusts of about 30 mph for part of
the day before weakening a bit into the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020

After this, Tuesday into next weekend will see an aggressive
northwest upper level jet which will keep moisture to the south and
bring continued shots of cooler air. Friday and Sunday appear to
have the better chances of being on the cooler side with some
location possibly not reaching the 50s for highs. But again the main
story is a continuation of dry weather. Also of concern will be fire
weather with dry fuels and occasionally windy conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 538 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020

A line of thunderstorms will move through southwest MN and
northwest IA this evening. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms will be possible in eastern SD during this time but
they should not be as strong. After about 5z all activity should
be east of the area. Once the storms weaken or exit east VFR
conditions are expected for the remainder of the period. Winds
will remain gusty through sunset, then gusts of 25 to 30 mph will
again be possible Monday afternoon.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for SDZ040-055-056-062-
     066-067-070-071.

MN...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ071-072-080-081-
     089-090-097-098.

IA...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for IAZ001>003-012>014-
     020>022-031-032.

NE...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for NEZ013-014.

&&

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...08

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
611 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020

SDZ038-039-050-052>055-057>061-063>066-068-069-121200-
Beadle-Kingsbury-Gregory-Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Brule-Aurora-
Davison-Hanson-McCook-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-
Bon Homme-Yankton-
611 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central South Dakota, east
central South Dakota, south central South Dakota and southeast
South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Gusty winds today, south initially, then turning to the west-
northwest this afternoon, will result in high to very high fire
danger.

There is a small chance of thunderstorm development 3pm-6pm toward
the Highway 81 corridor. If storms develop, an isolated strong to
severe storm could produce hail to quarter size.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Breezy afternoons and a return to dry conditions will lead to
periods of elevated fire danger through the week ahead, even as
temperatures cool to near or below seasonal normals.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-
098-NEZ013-014-SDZ040-056-062-067-070-071-121200-
Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-
Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Lincoln-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-
Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Brookings-Moody-Minnehaha-Union-
611 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Iowa, west central
Iowa, southwest Minnesota, northeast Nebraska, east central South
Dakota and southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Strong southerly winds, gusting as high as 40 to 45 mph at times,
will result in very high fire danger today.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop near the I-29
corridor late this afternoon, between 4 pm and 6 pm, expanding into
a line as the storms move east into southwest Minnesota and
northwest Iowa this evening. Large hail will be possible with
initial storm development, but the primary threat will transition to
damaging winds in excess of 60 mph as the storms move east. Storms
are expected to move east of the area by around 10 pm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Breezy afternoons and a return to dry conditions will lead to
periods of elevated fire danger through the week ahead, even as
temperatures cool to near or below seasonal normals.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed between 4 pm and 10 pm.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
112 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1237 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 5 SSW WORTHING          43.26N 96.80W
10/11/2020  M53 MPH          LINCOLN            SD   MESONET

            MESONET STATION 176 SD RWIS DAVIS.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
113 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1218 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NNE SIOUX CENTER      43.08N 96.16W
10/11/2020  M50 MPH          SIOUX              IA   MESONET

            MESONET STATION AR437 SIOUX CENTER.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
645 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0554 PM     HAIL             4 WSW HUDSON            43.11N 96.53W
10/11/2020  E1.75 INCH       LINCOLN            SD   PUBLIC

            REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA. LOCATION ESTIMATED
            VIA RADAR.

&&

SG