Severe Thunderstorm Warning 170, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

049 
WWUS53 KFSD 141957
SVSFSD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
257 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

IAC149-SDC127-142030-
/O.CON.KFSD.SV.W.0170.000000T0000Z-200814T2030Z/
Plymouth IA-Union SD-
257 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN PLYMOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERN UNION COUNTIES...

At 257 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Jefferson, or
10 miles northeast of Ponca, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe storm will be near...
  Hinton around 325 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this severe thunderstorm include
Westfield.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare immediately for large hail and deadly cloud to ground
lightning. Seek shelter inside a well-built structure. Stay away from
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 4257 9667 4261 9671 4265 9669 4268 9669
      4271 9668 4276 9665 4277 9627 4256 9630
TIME...MOT...LOC 1957Z 273DEG 25KT 4266 9653 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

VandenBoogart

420 
WWUS53 KFSD 142015
SVSFSD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
315 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

SDC127-142024-
/O.CAN.KFSD.SV.W.0170.000000T0000Z-200814T2030Z/
Union SD-
315 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN UNION COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
northwestern and west central Iowa...and southeastern South Dakota.

LAT...LON 4257 9642 4257 9648 4265 9653 4270 9653
      4277 9649 4276 9644 4277 9627 4256 9630
      4256 9642
TIME...MOT...LOC 2014Z 273DEG 25KT 4265 9636 

$$

IAC149-142030-
/O.CON.KFSD.SV.W.0170.000000T0000Z-200814T2030Z/
Plymouth IA-
315 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN PLYMOUTH COUNTY...

At 314 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Hinton, or 10
miles north of Sioux City, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe storm will be near...
  Hinton around 325 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare immediately for large hail and deadly cloud to ground
lightning. Seek shelter inside a well-built structure. Stay away from
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 4257 9642 4257 9648 4265 9653 4270 9653
      4277 9649 4276 9644 4277 9627 4256 9630
      4256 9642
TIME...MOT...LOC 2014Z 273DEG 25KT 4265 9636 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

VandenBoogart

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1244 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 944 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

Cold front is beginning to work into the western portion of the
forecast area, noted by the wind shift to the northwest from the
south at K9V9 and points westward. Satellite shows low clouds in
this area as well, with temperatures at K9V9 and KPIR in the mid
to upper 60s. Ahead of the front, temps remain the mid and upper
70s (with KFSD up to 81). Showers and isolated lightning strikes
have developed in south central SD and northeastern NE. However,
this activity has been diminishing over the last 15 minutes or so
as it moves east.

Otherwise, previous discussion and thoughts remain on track in
regards to this afternoon/evening severe weather potential.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

A rather warm and breezy overnight continues as temperatures
struggle to fall into the middle 70s in many areas.  We're beginning
to see a bit of cloud cover develop as the low-lvl jet increases.
It's possible to see a few showers develop across portions of SW
Minnesota through daybreak. Convective cluster along the ND/SD
border will continue to move east to northeast through daybreak,
with the southern cells riding along the northern fringes of the
+13C line at 700 mb.

Convective chances later today will be driven by an advancing cold
front moving southeast by the mid-day hours. Ahead of this boundary,
guidance continues to suggest MLCAPE values AOA 2500-3000 J/KG, with
the front reaching the I-29 corridor early this afternoon. Scattered
convection may begin to develop down the boundary as it slides into
Minnesota and Iowa in the afternoon. Decent mid-lvl lapse rates and
sufficient shear should support a severe weather risk as storms move
eastward.  Soundings suggest 2"+ hail potential, with mid-lvl dry
air intrusion and unidirectional wind profile suggesting localized
damaging wind gusts.  The tornadic risk can't be discounted, but
would like to see surface winds ahead of the boundary backed a bit
more. Any tornadic threat may have to be enhanced by local or
remnant outflow boundaries. The drawback for convection will be
departing (and shearing) upper forcing and a stubborn warm layer
aloft that could really limit upscale growth and coverage of
storms. The area with the highest potential for development will
be in SW Minnesota where PVA is maximized.

The front will zip southeast quickly, moving away from the forecast
area by 00z, and allowing a lower dew point airmass to advect into
the area. Temperatures fall into the lower 50s by daybreak Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

This weekend: The majority of the weekend will feature dry
conditions.  Temperatures on Saturday have been raised a bit in most
areas, but especially west of the James River.  Models showing a
favorable warm advection pattern aloft, and when combined with a
light southwest to west wind, and dry surface conditions, this
should allow for guidance to edge towards the upper percentile
ranges.   Light winds could lead to a bit of valley fog Sunday
morning.  Models showing a minor shortwave moving through the region
on Sunday. Minimal impacts are anticipated, but could see mid-lvl
clouds and a bit of virga during the day.

Next week:  Mid-lvl heights rise over the western United States next
week, and should bring mostly dry conditions to the region. Only
minor risk of rain in the forecast appears to be focused in the
Wednesday time frame when a subtle shortwave tops the upper ridge.
Temperatures will hover near to slightly above the seasonal
normals.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

Cold front is working across the area through mid-evening. Ahead
of the front, southerly winds are gusting up to 30 knots with low
VFR conditions. MVFR conditions are occurring for about an hour as
the front passes. Current showers/isolated thunderstorms will
increase in coverage along/near the front as it approaches/passes
I-29. Greatest shower/storm chances are mid- afternoon across
southwestern MN and northwestern IA.

After the front passes, winds shift to the northwest with gusts
up to 30 knots possible through sunset. Skies clear behind the
front with VFR conditions. Expect winds overnight to be light and
variable. Patchy fog is possible, especially in low-lying areas.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...SG
SHORT TERM...Dux
LONG TERM...Dux
AVIATION...SG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
439 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ072-080-081-089-090-098-
NEZ013-014-SDZ071-150945-
Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-
Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-Rock-
Dixon-Dakota-Union-
439 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Iowa,
west central Iowa, southwest Minnesota, northeast Nebraska, and
southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A cold front will move into the outlook area by mid-afternoon
Friday. Scattered thunderstorms may develop along this boundary
between 2pm and 7pm. A few strong to severe storms will be
possible across southwest Minnesota and northwest Iowa. Storms may
bring the risk for 2 inch hail and 70 mph winds. The tornado risk
remains very low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed between 2pm and 7pm Friday.

MNZ071-097-SDZ038>040-050-052>070-150945-
Lincoln-Pipestone-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory-Jerauld-
Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-McCook-
Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Bon Homme-Yankton-
Clay-
439 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Minnesota, central South Dakota, east central South Dakota, south
central South Dakota, and southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A fast moving cold front will move through Friday afternoon. The
greatest risk for thunderstorm development will be along and east
of Interstate 29, briefly during early Friday afternoon. These
developing storms could bring a risk of quarter size hail and 50
mph winds. The greater risks for severe storms will be focused
east of Interstate 29 across southwest Minnesota and northwest
Iowa.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.