Severe Thunderstorm Warning 154, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

128 
WWUS53 KFSD 090611
SVSFSD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
111 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020

SDC003-009-035-043-061-067-087-097-111-125-135-090630-
/O.CON.KFSD.SV.W.0154.000000T0000Z-200809T0630Z/
Davison SD-Sanborn SD-Aurora SD-Bon Homme SD-Miner SD-Douglas SD-
McCook SD-Yankton SD-Hanson SD-Turner SD-Hutchinson SD-
111 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 AM CDT
FOR DAVISON...SOUTHERN SANBORN...NORTHEASTERN AURORA...BON HOMME...
SOUTHWESTERN MINER...NORTHEASTERN DOUGLAS...WESTERN MCCOOK...
YANKTON...HANSON...WESTERN TURNER AND HUTCHINSON COUNTIES...

At 111 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Letcher to near Clayton to near Tabor, moving
east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile 
         homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

These severe storms will be near...
  Emery and Clayton around 115 AM CDT.
  Yankton, Bridgewater and Utica around 120 AM CDT.
  Dolton around 125 AM CDT.
  Mayfield, Mission Hill and Fedora around 130 AM CDT.
  Canistota around 135 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these severe thunderstorms include
Lesterville and Olivet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4340 9807 4388 9860 4407 9779 4357 9727
      4286 9724 4285 9729 4287 9731 4285 9736
      4287 9741 4285 9744 4286 9762 4284 9769
      4287 9785 4286 9787 4281 9789 4277 9794
      4276 9801
TIME...MOT...LOC 0611Z 251DEG 43KT 4393 9811 4351 9765 4294 9760 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

JM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1226 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 920 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020

Finally starting to see additional convection begin to develop
across western Nebraska late this evening as MCV begins to move
eastward. Additional convection is beginning to also develop
across central Nebraska as the LLJ begins to increase.

Very short term CAMs have struggled considerably resolving the
mesoscale features this evening, but have at least started to
catch up over the past hours. That said, there remains
considerable uncertainty on the continued potential and longevity
of upscale growth as this wave moves east overnight. MUCAPE values
remain substancial further east across SD/NE AOA 3500 J/KG,
however overall deep layer shear remains on the weaker side at
25-30 knots. Given latest trends, I'd continue to expect to see
the MCV slide east with a bit of a northeast pivot in development
as 700 mb flow begins to veer to the southeast behind the feature.

However, the further east this system travels, it will run into a
much more stable boundary layer, and may likely remain elevated
lifting off the 800 mb layer. The other question mark will be how
much the activity over the central portions of Nebraska will
intercept stronger low-lvl flow. It's unknown if this activity
will be able to consistently transport stronger winds down to the
surface, or if you'll instead see a larger system producing
fairly widespread 30 to 50 mph winds with pockets of higher winds
of 60+ mph pushing to the surface. 0-2 KM shear vectors will end
up being slightly more perpendicular to the line, so will need to
watch for stronger bowing segments.

Certainly feel a severe weather risks remains elevated up to the
James River, with much more uncertainty east of that area into the
overnight hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020

As of 19Z, MCV near KOGA in central Nebraska.  This disturbance is
expected to lift northeast, and interact with stationary boundary
across central South Dakota.  Despite the stratus across the area
that has prevented southeastern South Dakota from heating out,
atmosphere is unstable with +9 C/km lapse rates from roughly 750 mb
to 500 mb.  This is resulting in 100mb mixed layer CAPE values of
4000-5000 J/kg of CAPE.  SPC mesoanalysis indicating 1400-~1700 J/kg
of downdraft CAPE along the South Dakota/Nebraska border. CAMs
suggest storms may try to develop towards 00Z Sunday. 1-6 km bulk
shear values are 25-30 knots, so may be difficult to get individual
storms to organize, but if a supercell is able to develop movement
should slow and may produce locally heavy rain. Expect storms to
develop into a complex, with damaging winds being the primary
threat. Complex of storms is expected to lift northeast through the
evening lingering into the morning hours of Sunday morning.

Behind the complex, saturated near surface layer remains hinting at
the potential for another round of stratus on Sunday morning. Models
have hinted that stratus may try and lift northeast through the day,
but have lowered highs a bit Sunday, with the greatest shadow on
highs across southwest Minnesota where stratus is expected to linger
through much of the day. Strong cold front is expected to work south
through the area on Sunday evening.  Capping inversion appears to be
a bit stronger across southern half of the forecast area, and have
concentrated pops a bit across southwest Minnesota and adjacent
areas. Steep lapse rates above 800 mb still resulting in extreme
instability with near 5000 J/kg of CAPE. Shear once again looks to
be weak, thus making wind and hail favored severe weather modes.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020

Canadian surface high pressure will build into the region on Monday
leading to cooler weather around the region Monday.  Forecast area
is on the northeast edge of upper level ridge across the desert
southwest.  As a series of short waves top the ridge in zonal flow,
could see periodic thunderstorms throughout the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020

Convective line progressing northeast early this morning. Winds
with this line have averaged in the 50 to 70 mph range. Convection
will likely impact all three terminals, with the greatest impacts
potentially at KHON and KFSD. This system may be in a weakening
phase as it approaches I-29.

After convection moves through, MVFR to IFR stratus may again try
to drift northwest Sunday morning. Clouds may thin through the
day, albeit slowly, ahead of a frontal boundary moving in later in
the afternoon. Low confidence on convection risks with this front
in the evening.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Dux
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM...BT
AVIATION...Dux

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
250 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020

IAZ002-003-013-014-021-022-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-
SDZ039-040-056-092000-
Osceola-Dickinson-O'Brien-Clay-Cherokee-Buena Vista-Ida-Lincoln-
Lyon-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-Pipestone-Rock-Kingsbury-
Brookings-Moody-
250 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Iowa,
west central Iowa, southwest Minnesota, and east central South
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms are expected to form across portions of South Dakota
and Nebraska late this afternoon and move east overnight. Some of
these storms may be strong to severe with gusty winds to around 70
mph the primary threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Additional thunderstorm chances are possible Sunday evening and
overnight, some of which may again be strong to severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed late this evening and overnight.

IAZ001-012-020-031-NEZ013-014-SDZ038-050-052>055-057>071-092000-
Lyon-Sioux-Plymouth-Woodbury-Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-Gregory-Jerauld-
Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-McCook-Minnehaha-
Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Lincoln-Bon Homme-Yankton-
Clay-Union-
250 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Iowa,
west central Iowa, northeast Nebraska, central South Dakota, east
central South Dakota, south central South Dakota, and southeast
South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms are expected to develop across central South
Dakota between 6 pm and 9 pm CDT and move northeast overnight.
Some of these storms will be strong to severe with the potential
for strong winds in excess of 70 mph and hail to the size of
quarters. Additionally, locally heavy rain and an isolated
tornado cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Additional thunderstorm chances are possible Sunday evening and
overnight, some of which may again be strong to severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed after 5 pm today.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1206 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1159 PM     TSTM WND GST     14 W PLATTE             43.39N 99.12W
08/08/2020  M60 MPH          CHARLES MIX        SD   MESONET

&&

AK